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Otero County

Who Got Rain & Who Didn't - Blast Furnace Heat/High Winds/Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions Return This Memorable Day Weekend.


As Of 6 AM MDT Wednesday, May 25, 2022.







NM CoCoRaHS 7-Day Rainfall Totals.




Saturday.



Sunday.



Monday.



Our latest round of scattered thunderstorms produced some impressive 5-day rainfall totals across parts of Eastern New Mexico..., particularly in the Clovis and Portales areas where 1"-2" was reported. Radar estimates were as high as 4"-5" in a small area near the state line near Clovis. 

Near record to record heat returns to the state starting Friday and continuing into the holiday weekend. High temps across Southeastern New Mexico Saturday will be near 105ºF. Sadly our hot bone dry southwesterly and westerly winds will return to much of the state this weekend also. Needless to say that the fire danger will escalate back into the Critically to possibly the Extremely Critically Dangerous Categories this holiday weekend across much of the state.


Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM...Correction
1000 AM MDT Wed May 25 2022

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date

...New Mexico...

...Catron County...
5.7 S Luna (SNOTEL)          0.40 in   0800 AM 05/25

...Chaves County...
Mesa 11 NW                   0.36 in   0700 AM 05/25
Roswell 28.5 NNE             0.23 in   0700 AM 05/25
Roswell No. 1 Portable       0.23 in   0840 AM 05/25
Roswell 6.0 NNW              0.20 in   0700 AM 05/25
Roswell 5.1 N                0.15 in   0800 AM 05/25
Bitter Lakes WL Refuge       0.11 in   0559 AM 05/25
Mesa 4 SW                    0.10 in   0800 AM 05/25
Bitter Lake WL Refuge 14 NNE 0.09 in   0837 AM 05/25
Roswell 1.7 NW               0.07 in   0644 AM 05/25
Roswell 19.3 N               0.05 in   0602 AM 05/25
Roswell Air Center           0.02 in   0851 AM 05/25

...Colfax County...
Ute Park 3 N (Cimarron)      0.28 in   0709 AM 05/25
Raton 1.0 N                  0.12 in   0700 AM 05/25
Raton Crews Airport          0.12 in   0853 AM 05/25
Springer 0.9 WSW             0.11 in   0730 AM 05/25
Raton 1.1 S                  0.09 in   0530 AM 05/25
Miami 1 WSW                  0.07 in   0700 AM 05/25
Angel Fire Airport           0.05 in   0935 AM 05/25
IRAWS 1                      0.04 in   0915 AM 05/25

...Curry County...
Cannon AFB                   0.27 in   0858 AM 05/25
Clovis 4.4 S                 0.20 in   0800 AM 05/25
Clovis                       0.18 in   0927 AM 05/25
Clovis 3 WSW                 0.18 in   0930 AM 05/25
Clovis 2.3 NNE               0.17 in   0626 AM 05/25
Texico 6.0 S                 0.17 in   0700 AM 05/25
Clovis                       0.11 in   0928 AM 05/25
Clovis Muni Airport          0.06 in   0856 AM 05/25
Ned Houk State Park          0.06 in   0920 AM 05/25
Texico 13.6 N                0.03 in   0700 AM 05/25

...De Baca County...
Fort Sumner 0.5 SSW          0.63 in   0555 AM 05/25
Fort Sumner 14.1 W           0.20 in   0700 AM 05/25
Fort Sumner 8.9 NNW          0.13 in   0542 AM 05/25
Fort Sumner 9.0 SSE          0.13 in   0700 AM 05/25
Sumner Lake 1 NW             0.06 in   0927 AM 05/25

...Guadalupe County...
Newkirk 4.2 N                0.13 in   0730 AM 05/25
Fort Sumner 17.0 NW          0.10 in   0800 AM 05/25
Santa Rosa Airport           0.07 in   0935 AM 05/25
Milagro 3 ESE                0.06 in   0915 AM 05/25
Santa Rosa                   0.06 in   0935 AM 05/25

...Harding County...
Solano 3 NW                  0.04 in   0800 AM 05/25

...Lincoln County...
5.6 SW Bonito Lake (SNOTEL)  1.40 in   0800 AM 05/25
Roswell No. 2 Portable       0.16 in   0920 AM 05/25
Arabela 2.5 SSW              0.03 in   0700 AM 05/25

...Los Alamos County...
Los Alamos 2 ENE             0.10 in   0927 AM 05/25
Los Alamos 0.5 N             0.08 in   0700 AM 05/25
Los Alamos 2 E               0.05 in   0925 AM 05/25
Los Alamos 1 NNE             0.04 in   0928 AM 05/25
Los Alamos 2.5 WSW           0.02 in   0800 AM 05/25
Los Alamos 6.9 SSE           0.01 in   0700 AM 05/25

...Mora County...
Wagon Mound 6.9 SE           0.07 in   0700 AM 05/25
Bartley                      0.06 in   0904 AM 05/25
IRAWS 5                      0.05 in   0915 AM 05/25
IRAWS 10                     0.01 in   0915 AM 05/25

...Quay County...
House 0.1 S                  0.48 in   0700 AM 05/25
McAlister 3.7 WNW            0.36 in   0700 AM 05/25
Logan 1.5 W                  0.02 in   0700 AM 05/25
Tucumcari 4 NE               0.01 in   0750 AM 05/25

...Rio Arriba County...
5.1 NW Chama (SNOTEL)        0.30 in   0800 AM 05/25
Alcalde 19 N                 0.10 in   0700 AM 05/25
El Rito 2.3 NW               0.10 in   0700 AM 05/25
7.7 SSW San Miguel (SNOTEL)  0.10 in   0800 AM 05/25
Espanola 4 S                 0.08 in   0925 AM 05/25
Canon Plaza 4 E (Jarita Mesa 0.07 in   0916 AM 05/25
Truchas 3 ENE (Truchas)      0.06 in   0711 AM 05/25
Abiquiu 1.0 W                0.06 in   0800 AM 05/25
Abiquiu 2.4 ENE              0.05 in   0700 AM 05/25
Gallina 2.0 W                0.01 in   0700 AM 05/25
Jicarilla Ranger Station     0.01 in   0830 AM 05/25
Coyote 7 SSW (Coyote)        0.01 in   0848 AM 05/25

...Roosevelt County...
Portales 2.9 SW              1.02 in   0700 AM 05/25
Portales 5.1 SSW             0.65 in   0700 AM 05/25
Milnesand                    0.60 in   0700 AM 05/25
Elida 9.1 S                  0.44 in   0700 AM 05/25
Tolar 13 SE (Melrose Range)  0.38 in   0914 AM 05/25
Portales 1 SW                0.09 in   0915 AM 05/25

...San Juan County...
5.1 SSW Toadlena (SNOTEL)    0.20 in   0800 AM 05/25
Chaco Culture NHP            0.01 in   0930 AM 05/25

...San Miguel County...
Las Vegas Muni Airport       0.14 in   0853 AM 05/25
San Pablo 2 E                0.07 in   0700 AM 05/25
Conchas                      0.05 in   0730 AM 05/25
Las Vegas 1.7 NNW            0.03 in   0700 AM 05/25
Iraws 11                     0.03 in   0915 AM 05/25
Apache Springs 1 NE          0.03 in   0929 AM 05/25
IRAWS 4                      0.01 in   0915 AM 05/25
Iraws 12                     0.01 in   0916 AM 05/25

...Sandoval County...
Frijoles (Tower)             0.05 in   0908 AM 05/25

...Santa Fe County...
8.6 N Glorieta (SNOTEL)      0.20 in   0800 AM 05/25
Pojoaque 5.0 W               0.12 in   0700 AM 05/25
Pojoaque 1.0 E               0.11 in   0700 AM 05/25
Pojoaque 0.7 N               0.09 in   0700 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 2.7 ENE             0.07 in   0700 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 2.3 NE              0.07 in   0700 AM 05/25
Tesuque                      0.05 in   0915 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 1.1 N               0.04 in   0700 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 0.7 E               0.04 in   0700 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 4 ENE               0.04 in   0915 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 1 WNW               0.04 in   0928 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 3 ENE               0.04 in   0930 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 1.3 WSW             0.03 in   0700 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 0.6 ENE             0.03 in   0730 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 0.3 NNW             0.03 in   0900 AM 05/25
Tesuque 1 W                  0.03 in   0923 AM 05/25
Espanola 3.4 SE              0.02 in   0600 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 6.4 SE              0.02 in   0700 AM 05/25
Santa Fe                     0.02 in   0700 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 2.3 SE              0.02 in   0700 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 0.7 ESE             0.02 in   0700 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 2.8 SSW             0.02 in   0700 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 3.3 WNW             0.02 in   0725 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 5 E (Santa Fe Water 0.02 in   0853 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 4.1 WNW             0.02 in   0900 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 4 NW                0.02 in   0925 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 2 SW                0.02 in   0930 AM 05/25
Agua Fria 1 N                0.02 in   0930 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 4.3 SW              0.01 in   0730 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 3.6 WNW             0.01 in   0800 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 3 WNW               0.01 in   0916 AM 05/25
Santa Fe 3 NW                0.01 in   0917 AM 05/25

...Taos County...
8 NE Arroyo Seco (SNOTEL)    0.20 in   0800 AM 05/25
Arroyo Seco 7.6 NE           0.15 in   0920 AM 05/25
Red River 5 SSE              0.11 in   0915 AM 05/25
Red River 8 SSW              0.11 in   0935 AM 05/25
11 ENE Taos (SNOTEL)         0.10 in   0200 AM 05/25
Arroyo Hondo 4.8 WSW         0.10 in   0800 AM 05/25
Arroyo Hondo 2.5 E           0.08 in   0800 AM 05/25
Valdez 1 NNW                 0.07 in   0925 AM 05/25
Arroyo Seco 2.3 SW           0.05 in   0700 AM 05/25
Taos Muni Airport            0.05 in   0856 AM 05/25
Taos 3.8 NNW                 0.05 in   0857 AM 05/25
Arroyo Seco 3 SW             0.04 in   0930 AM 05/25
Questa 1.2 N                 0.03 in   0800 AM 05/25
Taos 1.6 SE                  0.03 in   0900 AM 05/25
Red River                    0.03 in   0925 AM 05/25
Taos 3.2 WNW                 0.02 in   0700 AM 05/25
Ranchos De Taos 2.4 W        0.02 in   0700 AM 05/25
Lama 4 NW (Wild Rivers)      0.02 in   0849 AM 05/25
Talpa 1 NE                   0.02 in   0925 AM 05/25
Taos 19.1 W                  0.01 in   0900 AM 05/25
Los Cordovas 2 S             0.01 in   0930 AM 05/25

...Torrance County...
McIntosh 4.4 ESE             0.06 in   0800 AM 05/25

...Union County...
Capulin Volcano Natl Monumen 1.40 in   0920 AM 05/25
Grenville 7.2 ENE            0.65 in   0426 AM 05/25
Folsom 10.4 ENE              0.45 in   0700 AM 05/25
Clayton 32.9 SW              0.21 in   0700 AM 05/25
Clayton 14.6 SSW             0.16 in   0600 AM 05/25
Clayton 0.6 SSE              0.15 in   0632 AM 05/25
Amistad 8.5 WSW              0.12 in   0700 AM 05/25
Clayton Muni Airpark         0.11 in   0855 AM 05/25
Clayton 1.1 W                0.11 in   0900 AM 05/25
Clayton 12.4 SSW             0.06 in   0700 AM 05/25
Sedan 5 N                    0.05 in   0928 AM 05/25


Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Artesia - Cottonwood, NM LP Supercell Chase Video & Photos May 24, 2022.

May 24, 2022.
LP Supercell Thunderstorm.
12 Miles NW Of Artesia, NM.
On Eddy/Chaves County Line.
Pearson Rd - Looking Northwest.

GR2Analysist 3 Radar Snapshot.

At 12:43 PM MDT.
The Storm Is 7 Miles Northwest Of Me.
Storm Movement Was To The Southeast.


A small but robust thunderstorm developed along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains north of the Flying H Ranch Tuesday afternoon, May 24, 2022. As it began to move east it quickly became a Low Precipitation (LP) Supercell. On radar, it was unimpressive as these types of thunderstorms sometimes are. Radar in this case underestimated the size of the hail. The max hail size depicted on the GR2Analysist 3 downloads at that time was on 1.3" in diameter. Counterclockwise rotation is clearly visible in the time-lapse beginning portion of this video. These types of thunderstorms often produce large to very large hail. This one was really dry and produced very little rain. It did lay down quarter to golf ball size hail beginning at 1:29 PM MDT and ending at 1:35 PM MDT from Pearson Rd northeast to Jackson Rd along and north of the Eddy/Chaves County line north of Artesia, NM. A friend of mine shared a video on Social Media of a vehicle on Hwy 285 just south of the intersection of Jackson Rd getting their windshield broken by the hail. I measured several golf ball stones in this area. Some leaves were stripped off the elm trees in the area. At 3:06 PM MDT I got slammed by a haboob on Funk Rd northwest of Artesia. I measured a north wind sustained at 47 mph with gusts to 60 mph with my Vortex anemometer on the cab of my pickup. Blowing dust completely obscured the sky and dropped the visibility at times down to 1/16th of a mile. The Artesia Airport AWOS reported a north wind sustained at 40 mph with a peak gust of 61 mph with the visibility down to half of a mile at 3:15 PM MDT.

At 3:56 PM MDT the Carlsbad Airport ASOS reported a peak wind gust from the north of 67 mph as the haboob moved into town from Artesia. The visibility dropped down to 1/2 of a mile but was reported to be lower across town.

My Photos Of The Hail & Leaf Damage.

1:40 PM MDT.
Quarter To Golf Ball Size Hail.
Junction Of Jackson Rd & US Hwy 285.
Just Inside Chaves County North Of Artesia.

1:46 PM MDT.
Quarter To Golf Ball Size Hail.
Junction Of Jackson Rd & US Hwy 285.
Just Inside Chaves County North Of Artesia.


1:47 PM MDT.
Quarter To Golf Ball Size Hail.
Junction Of Jackson Rd & US Hwy 285.
Just Inside Chaves County North Of Artesia.

1:47 PM MDT.
Quarter To Golf Ball Size Hail.
Cumulonimbus Mammatus Clouds.
Junction Of Jackson Rd & US Hwy 285.
Just Inside Chaves County North Of Artesia.

1:40 PM MDT.
Quarter To Golf Ball Size Hail.
Junction Of Jackson Rd & US Hwy 285.
Just Inside Chaves County North Of Artesia.

1:59 PM MDT.
Golf Ball Size Hail.
Waldrip Rd 10 Miles Northwest Of Artesia.
Just Inside Eddy County North Of Artesia.

2:15 PM MDT.
Golf Ball Size Hail.
US Hwy 285 Near Jackson Rd.
Just Inside Chaves County North Of Artesia.

GR2Analysist 3 Radar Snapshots.

1:15 PM MDT.

1:15 PM MDT.



2:34 PM MDT.
Looking To The East.
From Franco Rd 4 Miles Northwest Of Artesia.
Dry Microburst & Cumulonimbus Mammatus Clouds


There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Blast Furnace Weather Today & Friday - Strong Cold Front Arrives Saturday.


Valid AM MDT Through 6 PM MDT Thursday, May 19, 2022.

Smoke from the Black and Bear Trap fires continues to impact our local area and points eastward. That haze you see in the sky is not clouds nor haze but layers of smoke aloft from the above-mentioned fires. As of Wednesday, May 18th the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon fires have burned 301,971 acres and are 34% contained. The Black Fire has burned 77,529 acres and is 0% contained. The Cerro Pelado Fire has burned 45,605 acres and is 74% contained. And the Bear Trap Fire has burned 17,122 acres and is 28% contained. 



Today.


Friday.


Red Flag Warnings continue in effect for much of New Mexico and nearby areas today and Fire Weather Watches are in effect for Friday. Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions will prevail today into Friday. Strong gusty southwesterly-westerly winds will gust up to around 40-50 mph over much of northern and central New Mexico today and Friday further aggravating the ongoing fire fighting efforts around the state. Southwesterly winds are forecast to gust up to around 25-35 mph across Southeastern New Mexico today and Friday.


Today.


Friday.



Saturday.



NWS NDFD Forecast Low Temperatures Sunday Morning.


NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures & Anomalies.

Sunday. 



Blast Furnace Weather Today & Friday - Cold Front Saturday.


Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday, May 23, 2022.



Our recent trend of excessively hot, bone dry, and sometimes windy days will continue today and Friday before a change occurs Saturday. Forecast high temperatures across Southeastern New Mexico today and Friday will range from 100º to 104º. These temps are some 10º to 15º above normal for the date.

Highs across the Sacramento Mountains today will range from the low 70's in the Cloudcroft area to the mid 80's in the Ruidoso area. Highs on Friday will range from the mid-upper 60's in the Cloudcroft area to near 80 in the Ruidoso area.

A strong cold front (for this time of the year) is forecast to drop south into New Mexico on Saturday ushering in much colder temperatures Saturday into Monday morning. High temperatures across the Southeastern Plains on Sunday are only forecast to be in the low-mid 70's. These temps will be some 10º to 15º below normal. A welcome change for sure. 

Highs across the Sacramento Mountains on Sunday are forecast to be in the 60's. Lows Sunday morning are forecast to drop down to near 40º to near 50º. Lows in the Sacramento Mountains Sunday morning are forecast to range from the mid 30's to near 40º.

WPC Precipitation Forecast.

Valid Today Through Tuesday Morning.

There are indications in the forecast models that we may see some measurable rainfall return to the local area from Sunday night into next Tuesday or so. Low-level moisture is forecast to increase across the area as a couple of upper air disturbances traverse across the region. The dryline may become active again Monday and Tuesday along with the possibility of severe thunderstorms breaking out along and east of it. The best chances for measurable rainfall will generally occur over the eastern one-third of the state.





NWS NDFD Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Sunday Morning.

A late-season snowstorm is forecast to impact the Denver area and much of Colorado Friday and Saturday. Winter Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect for much of North-Central and Northeastern Colorado. Denver could see up to 9" of snow from this storm. Although somewhat rare for this late in the spring this is not an unprecedented event.




All indications are that La Niña conditions will prevail through our summer into the early winter. Which would also support the idea that our current drought will also continue into the summer. 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 May 2022
 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

Synopsis:  Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance).

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted during April across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Over the past month, the Niño index values decreased, with the latest weekly values ranging from -1.1°C to -1.5°C [Fig. 2], which are quite negative for this time of year. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) remained negative [Fig. 3], reflecting an extensive area of below-average temperatures from the surface to ~100m depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies dominated the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained significantly suppressed around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts borderline La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with increasing odds for La Niña into the fall [Fig. 6]. Similar to last month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer, but remaining below the threshold of La Niña (Niño-3.4 values equal to or less than -0.5°C). In the near-term, westerly wind anomalies are predicted for mid-late May which supports the weakening of below-average surface and subsurface oceanic temperatures in the coming months. However, much of the model guidance is also hinting at a re-strengthening of La Niña conditions again in the fall and upcoming winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 June 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.


There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See.

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