Jackson Road Funnel Clouds - May 28, 2021.

8:03 PM MDT.

Friday, May 28, 2021.

My wife and I were storm chasing late Friday afternoon when I shot the two photos above of funnel clouds. We were sitting on north Joy RD northwest of Artesia, New Mexico (black circle with the red dot) looking to the northeast. Two funnel clouds developed and lasted a couple of minutes. Based on our location and the direction we were watching the funnel clouds I have circled the likely location of the funnels on the map above. Right over Jackson Rd just inside Chaves County or about 4 miles southwest of Lake Arthur. 

My YouTube Time Lapse Video.

My YouTube Time Lapse Video.

Due to the resolution its a little hard to pick out the smaller funnel cloud to the left of the larger one. No enhancements were made to this video. The colors are untouched. It was shot with my GoPro Max from inside of our truck.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Severe Weather This Memorial Day Weekend!

Blog Updated At 11:49 AM MDT.

5-25-2021

4-Miles North Of Orla, Texas.

Apparent Lightning Strike Damage?

Severe Weather This Memorial Day Weekend!

And just like that, we have been upgraded to an ENHANCED risk (orange area). The main concern in this area will be VERY LARGE HAIL but a tornado and/or damaging winds will definitely be possible. Keep your eyes on the weather this afternoon and tonight! #txwx #nmwx.

Storm Prediction Center.

 Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook.

(Friday, May 28, 2021).

SPC Day 1 Outlook (Today) Update.

(As of 10:27 AM MDT).

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail, damaging winds,
   and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of west and central
   Texas into eastern New Mexico, mainly this afternoon and evening.

   ...TX...
   A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is in place today
   across much of central and southwest TX, with dewpoints in the mid
   60s to lower 70s, pockets of strong heating, and very steep
   mid-level lapse rates.  Forecast soundings across the region show
   afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and little cap.  This
   should result in the development of scattered intense supercells
   along the various boundaries analyzed over this area and along the
   dryline over southeast NM and southwest TX.  Deep layer shear will
   favor rotating storms, and straight-line hodographs suggest
   left-moving supercells will also occur.  Damaging winds and a few
   tornadoes are possible.  However, the primary threat appears to be
   very large hail.  Therefore, have opted to add an ENH risk area and
   a 30%/sig hail probability area.  Storms should maintain severe
   threat through much of the evening as they spread southeastward
   toward central TX, with an increasing risk of bowing structures and
   damaging winds.

Surface Map Forecast.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Rainfall Forecasts.

Be Weather-Aware!

Many people in the area have outdoor plans today into Memorial Day (Monday). Unfortunately, our weather has plans too and they are not so good. Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are forecast for Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas today through Monday. Saturday may be a down day in some areas but a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Southeastern New Mexico.

Today (Friday) will see scattered severe thunderstorms developing by noontime and continuing into tonight. These severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing very large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and flash flooding.

A few tornadoes will also be possible today and again with Sunday's severe thunderstorms. Area residents are encouraged to have multiple ways to monitor weather conditions and be prepared to seek shelter when severe thunderstorms move into your location or area.

Remember: Turn Around - Don't Drown!

Remember: Never Attempt To Drive Across A Flooded Arroyo - Especially At Night!

Remember: When Thunder Roars - Go Indoors!

Remember: If You Can Hear Thunder - You Are Close Enough To Be Struck By Lightning!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Another Round Of Severe Thunderstorms Today.

7:46 PM MDT.

Sunday, May 23, 2021.

Looking Southwest From C-Hill In Carlsbad, New Mexico.

8:05 PM MDT.

Sunday, May 23, 2021.

Looking South From C-Hill In Carlsbad, New Mexico.

7:47 PM MDT.

Sunday, May 23, 2021.

Looking Northwest From C-Hill In Carlsbad, New Mexico.

A Low Precipitation (LP) Supercell thunderstorm formed south of Whites City Sunday afternoon. It moved north then split in two with the southern storm nearly stalling near Whites City. The northern storm (photos above) then took a right turn and started moving to the northeast towards Carlsbad. Slow rotation was noted in the storm. It passed over the southern end of the city as it was dissipating. The storms were radar warned for half dollar size hail.

Another Round Of Severe Thunderstorms Today.

Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook.

(This Outlook Will Be Updated By 7 AM MDT).

(Click On The Link Above For The Latest Outlook.)

Another round of severe thunderstorms is in our local forecast for today. Some of these will become severe. Isolated to widely scattered Supercell thunderstorms will develop with multi-cellular clusters also developing this afternoon and evening. 

The primary severe weather threats will be large to very large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Any Supercell thunderstorm that develops may also develop enough rotation to produce isolated tornadoes. 

Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible which may produce localized flash flooding. Frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning will accompany all thunderstorms that develop.

Remember: "When thunder roars...Go indoors. If you can hear thunder then you are close enough to the storm to be struck by its lightning. Lightning can and often does arc out of the cloud up to 10 to 30 miles away from the thunderstorm. This is the bolt from the blue.

Remember: Turn around...Don't drown. Never drive across a flooded arroyo especially at night when it is next to impossible to determine the depth of the flood waters. The roads underneath may have been washed out and the water can and often is deeper than expected.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Lakewood, NM Storm Chase - Saturday, May 22, 2021.

5-22-2021

3:41 PM MDT, Saturday, May 22, 2021.

23 Miles West Of Lakewood, New Mexico.

Supercell thunderstorm 29 miles west of Lakewood, New Mexico at 3:41 PM MDT, Saturday, May 22, 2021. My wife and I were 16 miles west of Lakewood and this storm was 13 miles southwest of us. This rotating storm was just inside the Eddy/Otero County line (on the Eddy County side). This is the same storm my wife and I chased in my YouTube video.

My wife and I chased this Supercell on Saturday afternoon. We were 16 miles west of Lakewood on Eddy County Road #23 (Rock Daisy Road) when I first started filming. The storm was 13 miles to our southwest and I filmed it until it was only 8 miles to our west-southwest. At the height of the storm during the most intense rotation, the storm was about 12-10 miles south of Hope.

Nice rotation noted within the storm. At one point it was radar warned for golf ball size hail. At the end, storms to its south and southwest cut off the inflow and it became rain-wrapped and downdraft dominated. Notice the small wet microburst crashing down just immediately to the right of the updraft in the middle of the video. It spread out to the left (south) and right (north). We also saw a couple of rain foots with this storm.

All of the videos were shot with my GoPro Max from inside of our truck.

MRMS Estimated 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

(As Of Noon MDT Sunday Morning).

A combination of radar and satellite estimates indicate that 4.50" of rain fell from the Supercell thunderstorm my wife and I chased Saturday afternoon. Some 12-10 miles south of Hope or 23 miles west of Lakewood, New Mexico in far western Eddy County. At one point the storm was radar warned for golf ball size hail so I suspect this rainfall total may be a tad high due to hail contamination. 

New Mexico 24-Hour Reported & Estimated Rainfall Totals.

(As Of Noon MDT Sunday Morning).

CoCoRaHS 24-Hour Reported Rainfall Totals.

(As Of Noon MDT Sunday Morning).

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Reports.

 (From Saturday, May 22, 2021).

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Significant Risk For Severe Thunderstorms In SE New Mexico Today Into Tonight.

5-15-2021

A Steel Tower & A Cumlonimbus Tower.

Looking Southwest From Lakewood Towards Carlsbad Caverns.

Storm Prediction Center.

 Day 1 (Today) Severe Weather Outlook.

Severe Thunderstorms Today Into Tonight.

All of the necessary parameters for severe thunderstorms to erupt over Southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas today into tonight are in place. Scattered thunderstorms will develop by around noontime (if not before in some areas) and increase in coverage and intensity as the afternoon wears on. Some of them will be severe.

Low level southeasterly upslope flow has imported rich Gulf of Mexico moisture (dew points in the 60's locally) into the area overnight. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be around 7.5 c/km to 8.5 c/km, surface-based cape values are forecast to be around 2500 to 3000 j/kg, bulk wind shear values (surface to 6km) are forecast to be around 40 to 50 knots, thus the atmosphere over the local area will be very unstable today into tonight.

Supercell thunderstorms are likely. Large to very large hail (maybe golf ball size or larger) will be possible along with damaging thunderstorm winds gusts in excess of 60 mph. Frequent deadly lightning will also occur with any thunderstorm that develops. Locally heavy rainfall could also produce localized flash flooding.

A few tornadoes are also possible with any Supercell thunderstorm. Area residents are advised to be weather-aware today with your situational awareness in a heightened state when thunderstorms develop. As of 8:45 AM MDT, this Saturday morning radar is already showing a thunderstorm with a hail core in southeastern Chaves County. 

Remember to have multiple ways available to receive severe weather alerts. Many of you will be attending outdoor sporting events, picnics, fishing trips, camping trips, etc. Be especially aware of changing weather conditions and ready to seek shelter immediately if a storm approaches your location.

Remember: When thunder roars...go indoors. If you can hear thunder then you are close enough to the thunderstorm to be struck by its lightning. Turn Around...Don't drown.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Slow Moving Thunderstorm Dumps On Artesia, NM 5-15-2021.

5-15-2021

Artesia, New Mexico.

Artesia, New Mexico Street Flooding.

Carlsbad-Lakewood-Artesia, New Mexico.

(Time Lapse).

5-15-2021.

Artesia, New Mexico.

Normally Dry Eagle Draw

 

MRMS 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

(As Of Noon MDT Sunday, May 16, 2021).

24-Hour New Mexico MesoNet Rainfall Totals.

(As Of Noon MDT Sunday, May 16, 2021).

Thunderstorms Dump On Eastern & Southeastern New Mexico.

A slow-moving thunderstorm dumped around an inch of rain in twenty minutes on Artesia Saturday afternoon. This caused street flooding in the city which in turn ran off into normally dry Eagel Draw and caused it to flood. See my first YouTube video above.

Other thunderstorms dumped very heavy rains in the Portales area also causing flash flooding and at least one high water rescue of children from a flooded car. For those of you who follow me on Facebook, I have that video on my TimeLine. Radar estimated that up to two inches of rain fell immediately to the northwest of Artesia Saturday afternoon.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Round Two Today - More Severe Thunderstorms!

5-14-2021.

Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Radio Blvd & Boyd Dr - Dark Canyon Arroyo.

Once again the rains have returned. And what is so common or typical in this area is that when they do, they are often heavy. Such was the case last night southwest - west of Carlsbad where several Severe Thunderstorms developed. Several Severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for these storms by the Midland National Weather Service Office. Radar estimated hail anywhere from golf ball up to lime size (2" in diameter). MRMS estimates (combination of satellite, radar, and actual reported rainfall totals) indicated that 3.50" to 4.00" of rain fell some 5-10 miles southwest - west of Carlsbad from these thunderstorms. 

Notice below on the estimated and reported rainfall total maps how isolated the heaviest of the storms were. Again highly typical. Heavy to very rains can fall miles from your location and produce flash flooding at your location without a drop of rain ever falling on you. See my blog post with my flash flood videos of this in August 2005.

Rainfall of this magnitude produces flash flooding in our neck of the woods. Especially since we have been experiencing exceptional drought conditions (highest category). Dark Canyon which is a normally dry arroyo, quickly flooded. Looking at the picture above it appears that someone tried to drive through the floodwaters and didn't make it. Sadly this is an all too common theme in Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. One that is likely to repeated many more times this year. 

It's simple folks. "Turn Around - Don't Drown."

24-Hour MRMS Rainfall Estimates.

(As Of 8 AM MDT, Saturday, May 15, 2021).

24-Hour NWS MesoNet Rainfall Estimated/Reported Totals.

(As Of 8 AM MDT, Saturday, May 15, 2021).

24-Hour CoCoRaHS Reported Rainfall Totals.

(As Of 8 AM MDT, Saturday, May 15, 2021).

Round Two Today - Higher Threat For Severe Thunderstorms.

Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook.

Scattered thunderstorms are once again forecast for the local area this afternoon and evening. Some of these thunderstorms will become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning, perhaps an isolated tornado or two. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm that develops along with localized flash flooding.

At 6:38 PM MDT Friday evening, the Roswell Airport ASOS clocked a thunderstorm wind gust to 69 mph.

We have started our severe weather season which typically lasts through June so keep your guard up and be weather aware.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!