Brutally Cold & Dangerous Winter Storm For NM!

Last Nights 00Z/ 5 PM MST WRF 500 MB Forecast

Valid For 5 PM MST Today. First Upper-Level Short Wave

Trough Of Low Pressure Swings Across Southern NM.

Second And Stronger Short Wave Over Montana.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST WRF 500 MB Forecast Map

Valid At 5 PM MST Tue Feb 1, 2011. Large And Very Cold

Upper-Level Storm Forming Over The Area.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST WRF Surface Temp

Forecast Map Valid At 5 PM MST Today.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST WRF Surface Temp

Forecast Map Valid At 5 PM MST Tue Feb 1, 2011.

Brutally Cold Arctic Airmass Arrives In SE NM Tonight!

Update 3:30 PM MST

The arctic cold front is located between Roswell and Clovis at 3:30 PM,
and is moving southward. It should arrive in the Pecos Valley,
and nearby areas by around sunset or shortly afterward.

Clayton was down to 19F at 3 PM with a wind chill value of 0.
Clovis is down to 28 with a wind chill value of 13 at 3:30 PM.
Northerly winds along and behind the cold front are gusting up to 40 mph.

Bitterly cold wind chill values tonight across SE NM and nearby areas.
By sunrise tomorrow morning, wind chill values will be -15F to -25F
in the Roswell and Ruidoso areas. And again Wednesday
and Thursday mornings!

They will be near -10F to -15F in Artesia, Carlsbad, Hobbs areas.
And again Wednesday and Thursday mornings!
Wind Chill values will be down to -25F to -30F
in the Guadalupe Mtn's.

Wind Chill Values of -25F to -40F are
forecast for the Albuquerque and Santa Fe
areas Wednesday and Thursday mornings!

These are potentially life threatening wind chill values!
Any exposed skin can freeze in less than 30 minutes
when wind chill temps drop below -10F.

A Wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow is forecast for tonight.
A few thunderstorms will also be possible.
Still looking for 1" - 3" of snow at the lower elevations.
Locally higher may be possible.
The Sacramento and Capitan Mtn's will see up to 1' - 2'.

Driving conditions will be extremely hazardous across the area
tonight into tomorrow. Snow; heavy at times, blowing snow
and drifting snow, will complicate matters, especially
across the mountains. Visibilities may drop down to near zero.
Some road closures may be possible!

Please visit this web page often to stay abreast of the latest details!

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Update 8:00 AM MST

Winter Weather Advisory

Wind Chill Warning/Advisory

Eddy/Lea Co's & Guadalupe Mtn's

Tonight - Wednesday

1" - 3" New Snow

Wind Chill Values -5F To -14F Plains

Wind Chill Values -15F To -30F Guadalupe Mtn's

Winter Weather Advisory Chaves Co
5 PM Today - 11 AM Wednesday
2" - 5" Snow Locally 6" Western Areas
Blowing/Drifting Snow
Wind Chill Values -5F Tonight
Wind Chill Values -10 To -20F
Tuesday Night - Wednesday Morning
Dangerous Travel Conditions

Winter Storm Warning Southern Sacramento Mtn's
5 PM Today - 5 PM Tuesday
6" - 12" Snow
Higher Amounts East Facing Slopes
Wind Chill Values Below Zero

Winter Storm Watch Southern Sacramento Mtn's
Tuesday Afternoon - Wednesday Night
Additional 6" -12" New Snowfall Totals
Blowing/Drifting Snow
Wind Chill Values Below Zero

Winter Storm Warning Northern Sacramento Mtn's
5 PM Today - 11 AM Wednesday
6" -12" Snow
Locally 15" - 20" Higher Peaks
Blowing /Drifting Snow
Wind Chill Values Below Zero

Winter Storm Watch Southern NM

Tuesday Afternoon Through Wednesday Night

1" - 4" New Snowfall

Wind Chill Watch Lubbock Area

Late Tonight - Wednesday Morning

Wind Chill Values of -15F To -20F

High Wind Warning Guadalupe Mountains

This Evening Through Wednesday

SW 35-45G60 MPH Today

Becoming NE 40-50G65 MPH Tuesday Night

It appears that this inbound Major Winter Storm, and it's associated brutally cold arctic airmass will be one for the history books by the time this week is over. There remains the possibility that new daily minimum high temperature records will be broken across the area, as well as some daily minimum temperature records. I cannot stress enough how cold this arctic airmass is going to be folks, and to make matters worse will be the brutally cold wind chill values!

Today will be our last day of warm weather until this weekend. A brutally cold arctic front will arrive in southeastern New Mexico by midnight tonight. Rapidly falling temperatures will accompany it's passage, along with northerly winds of 20-30 mph with stronger gusts. Please take the necessary precautions today to protect your pets, plumbing, and yourselves from the cold temperatures, and the dangerously low wind chill values this week!

Our temperatures will rapidly plunge below freezing tonight, and are forecast to remain below freezing until Friday. This will be the coldest airmass to affect the local area since at least 2005, and some are comparing it to the arctic outbreaks of January 1997, and December 1997.

The bad news is that each new model run continues to drop out local temperatures, and the models historically have a history of being too warm with these arctic outbreaks! So, do not be surprised if we end up being colder than what is being forecast, especially if we getting snow cover on the ground. Some of our high temps on Tuesday and Wednesday may not get out of the teens! Once our skies clear and the snow ends, it's very possible that we see our low temp's drop below zero in some locations!

Latest NWS Forecast High/Low Temps Today-

Clayton 29/0

Tucumcari 44/9

Clines Corners 44/8

Clovis 54/7

Lubbock 58/11

Hobbs 71/16

Roswell 68/24

Artesia 71/22

Carlsbad 72/23

Rudioso 51/16

Cloudcroft 38/15

Latest NWS Forecast High Temps Tuesday-

Clayton 7/-12

Tucumcari 15/-2

Clines Corners 12/-7

Clovis 15/-1

Lubbock 19/3

Hobbs 20/5

Roswell 26/8

Artesia 22/8

Carlsbad 24/12

Rudioso 22/0

Cloudcroft 26/2

Latest NWS Forecast High Temps Wednesday-

Clayton 8/2

Tucumcari 15/6

Clines Corners 5/-3

Clovis 12/5

Lubbock 16/4

Hobbs 17/10

Roswell 16/9

Artesia 23/11

Carlsbad 26/10

Rudioso 14/1

Cloudcroft 15/-2

Latest NWS Forecast High Temps Thursday-

Clayton 30/14

Tucumcari 29/10

Clines Corners 14/9

Clovis 23/11

Lubbock 25/12

Hobbs 28/12

Roswell 23/12

Artesia 27/13

Carlsbad 28/13

Rudioso 20/4

Cloudcroft 20/6

Wind Chill values are forecast to drop down to the -10F to -25F range across the northern Texas Panhandle tonight. They will crater down to -15F to -35F Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Please visit the Amarillo, Texas National Weather Service web page for additional information on this.

Wind Chill values of near zero,to a little below zero are forecast across the South Plains near the Lubbock, Texas area tonight. They will crater down to -15F to -20F Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Please visit the Lubbock, Texas National Weather Service Office web page for additional information on this.

Wind Chill values of near zero, to a little below zero are anticipated for SE NM late tonight into Tuesday morning. Wind Chill values will approach -5 to -15F Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wind Chill Values of -15F to -30F are forecast for the Guadalupe Mtn's. Please visit the Midland National Weather Service Office web page, and the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office web page for additional information on this.

This is a Dangerous Winter Storm folks, and I'm not kidding in the least bit. Travel upon area roadways, and exposure to outdoor activities without proper clothing may become life threatening across many areas due to the very cold temperatures, dangerous to potentially life threatening wind chill values, heavy snow, blowing and drifting snow, and low visibilities.

Please prepare now for this extreme weather event that will affect all of the area this week. Please check back here often for the very latest on this potentially historic winter weather event! Or, visit your nearest National Weather Service Office web page, or listen to, or watch your favorite news media outlets.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Brutally Cold Airmass Plunges Us Back Into Winter!

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast Map

Valid At 5 PM MST Mon Jan 31, 2011.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast Map

Valid At 5 PM MST Tue Feb 1, 2011.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST GFS Surface Temp Forecast Map

Valid At 5 AM MST Tue Feb 1, 2011.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST GFS Surface Temp Forecast Map

Valid At 5 AM MST Wed Feb 2, 2011.

Update 3:00 PM Sun Jan 30, 2011.

Winter Storm Watch For The Sacramento Mtn's
Tuesday Night - Thursday
Generally 8" - 14" New Snowfall
Up To 24" New Snowfall Higher East Facing Slopes

Winter Storm Watch For All Of SE NM
Late Monday Night - Tuesday Afternoon
Generally 1" - 4" New Snowfall
Northerly Winds 20-30 MPH
Producing Wind Chill Values Below Zero

Winter Storm Watch Southern NM
Tuesday Afternoon - Late Wednesday Night
1" - 4" New Snowfall
Northerly Wind Gusts 25-30 MPH
Producing Wind Chill Values Near Zero

Dangerous Winter Storm still on track to hammer most all of New Mexico Monday through Thursday. Very heavy snowfall totals of up to around 2' (Feet Not Inches) are forecast for the Sacramento Mountains, as well as other mountain locations in the state.

We can now expect at least 1" - 4" of snowfall across all of the lower elevations of southeastern New Mexico, from late Monday night into at least Tuesday afternoon. The models are still struggling with the details of this dangerous winter storm, but it is possible that we may end up with even higher snowfall totals across the local area, especially near the mountains!

With temperatures in the teens and twenties expected on Tuesday, very low wind chill values in the single digits, to near zero can be expected across the local area!

Dangerous Wind Chill Values are forecast across southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. With temperatures dropping down into the single digits, and northerly winds of 20-30 mph, Wind Chill values may dip down into the -10 to -20F range across the area!

High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will struggle to get out of the teens and twenties over the area. Overnight low temperatures will dip down into the single digit values, maybe even below zero in a few locations.

The Clayton area is expecting a low of near -15F Wednesday morning. The Clovis area is now expecting low temp's of near -5F Wednesday morning. The Roswell area is now expecting low temp's as low as 0F Wednesday morning. The Ruidoso area is now expecting low temp's as low as -5F Wednesday morning.

This Is A Dangerous Winter Storm That Will Have Huge Impacts Upon Travel Across The State Monday Through Thursday. Please Take Early Precautions To Protect Your Livestock, Pets, and Yourselves Against The Dangerous Cold, Potentially Life Threatening Wind Chill Values, And Heavy Snowfall That Is Now Forecast To Impact The Local Area, As Well As Most Of The State This Upcoming Week!

Some of the nearby National Weather Service Office Forecasters are calling next weeks blast of arctic air, the coldest since the mid-January 1997 outbreak. New record low maximum, and new record low temperatures, will likely be established in some locations by the end of next week. This Winter Storm could potentially have the strongest impact upon southeastern New Mexico, since the three Winter Storms Storms, that hammered the area during the Christmas Holidays of 1997.
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Brutally Cold Airmass To Arrive With Arctic Cold Front!

Special Weather Web Briefing From NWS Albuquerque!

Winter Storm Watch Northern 2/3rd Of NM.

In Effect Monday Morning - Wednesday Morning.

15" - 20" Of Snowfall Higher Mountains

Life Threatening Wind Chill Values-

Across Eastern NM Monday Night - Tuesday Night!

Get ready SE NM and surrounding areas...Winter will return with a vengeance late Monday night! A powerful arctic/polar cold front is now forecast to enter the local area late Monday night, or early Tuesday morning.

It's passage will be characterized by rapidly falling temperatures, gusty northerly to northeasterly winds, and bone chilling wind chill values. In fact our wind chill values Tuesday morning will likely be near zero, to below zero across the area. A Wind Chill Advisory may be issued for the area by the Midland National Weather Service Forecast Office, and the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office.

After seeing our afternoon high temperatures climb up into the upper 60's to the low 70's today and Monday, Tuesday through Thursday will be quite a shock, as our high temperatures fall some 50 degrees or more across the area.

A similar outbreak of very cold arctic air engulfed the area

December 8th and 9th, 2005.

Roswell Climate Dec 8th, 2005 High 25 Low 3.

Roswell Climate Dec 9th, 2005 High 34 Low 11.

Artesia Climate Dec 8th, 2005 High 29 Low 1.

Artesia Climate Dec 9th, 2005 High 34 Low 1.

Carlsbad Climate Dec 8th, 2005 High 28 Low 5.

Carlsbad Climate Dec 9th, 2005 High 34 Low 5.

Hobbs Climate Dec 8th, 2005 High 28 Low 4.

Hobbs Climate Dec 9th, 2005 High 33 Low 11.

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Forecast High Temps Tuesday

Low Temps Tuesday Night.

Lubbock 21/6

Clovis 15/0

Hobbs 24/10

Roswell 27/9

Artesia 27/11

Carlsbad 27/14

Forecast High Temps Wednesday

Low Temperatures Wednesday Night.

Clovis 18/5

Lubbock 18/6

Hobbs 20/8

Roswell 22/7

Artesia 23/8

Carlsbad 26/8

Forecast High Temps Thursday

Low Temperatures Thursday Night.

Clovis 32/17

Lubbock 31/16

Hobbs 32/16

Roswell 31/15

Artesia 30/18

Carlsbad 32/16

These temperatures may be a little too warm, it's possible that many of us may not get out of the teens for high temp's on Wednesday. Once we fall below freezing late Monday night, or early Tuesday morning, we probably will not rise above freezing until Friday. If we see accumulating snowfall amounts across the local area, then don't be surprised to see some of our low temp's drop down to below zero Wednesday or Thursday mornings.

A mixed bag of wintry precipitation is still forecast across the area late Monday night, continuing into Wednesday. A mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet will quickly change over to all snow across SE NM by Tuesday morning. The mountains still stand a pretty good chance of seeing heavy snowfall totals. Accumulating snowfall totals will also be possible across SE NM as well.


I used last nights US GFS model forecast maps to depict the general position of the upper-level storm set to hammer the state. The European (ECMWF) and Canadian (GEM) models are forecasting more of a closed upper-level low to our west, which would help to produce more widespread, and heavier snowfall totals across the state than what the GFS model is forecasting.

This is a complicated winter storm that will impact all of New Mexico from Monday into Thursday. Area residents are urged to stay abreast of all of the latest National Weather Service Watches, Warnings, and Special Weather Statements that are likely to be issued during this potentially dangerous major winter event.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Cold Winter Storm To Affect SE NM Next Week!

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST European (ECMWF) 500 MB

Forecast Valid At 5 AM MST Tue Feb 1, 2011.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST European (ECMWF) 500 MB

Forecast Valid At 5 AM MST Wed Feb 2, 2011.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST European (ECMWF) 500 MB

Forecast Valid At 5 AM MST Thu Feb 3, 2011.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS 850 MB/5,000' MSL

Temp Forecast Valid At 5 AM MST Wed Feb 2, 2011.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Surface Temp

Forecast Map Valid At 5 AM MST Wed Feb 2, 2011.

Click On The Maps Above To Enlarge Them.

Turning Much Colder & A Chance For A Wintry Mix!

Latest National Weather Service Special Weather Statements!

Special Weather Web Briefing From NWS Albuquerque!

So far this afternoon I have managed to reach 72 for an afternoon high here at my home in Carlsbad, NM Most other reporting stations across the local area are in the general neighborhood temperature-wise. Sunday and Monday will see similar readings

This mornings 12Z/5 AM MST run of the computer forecast models, are doing a little better with the track of the next winter storm, that is due to impact our local weather next week, although the details are still pretty murky.

However, one thing is pretty clear. A powerful arctic/polar cold front is forecast to arrive in southeastern New Mexico Monday night, and when it does, you are going to sit up and take notice believe me.

Rapidly falling temperatures, along with gusty northerly to northeasterly winds, will produce bone chilling wind values behind the front late Monday night into Tuesday. Wind chill values may fall down into the single digits to near zero by Tuesday morning. Wind chill values of -20F are possible across NE NM early Tuesday morning.

Temperatures across southeastern New Mexico are forecast to drop down below freezing late Monday night, and may not climb above the freezing mark until next Friday!

Forecast High Temps Tuesday

Low Temps Tuesday Night.

Lubbock 21/8

Clovis 23/7

Hobbs 24/11

Artesia 29/12

Carlsbad 29/15

Forecast High Temps Wednesday

Low Temperatures Wednesday Night.

Clovis 16/6

Lubbock 18/7

Hobbs 23/13

Artesia 26/13

Carlsbad 29/13

Forecast High Temps Thursday

Low Temperatures Thursday Night.

Clovis 28/14

Lubbock 31/16

Hobbs 32/16

Artesia 30/21

Carlsbad 32/17

These forecast temperatures will change between now and the first of next week. If we see accumulating snowfall across southeastern New Mexico, then there is the potential that some of these readings will be on the high side. This will be especially true of our overnight low temp's once the snow stops, and the skies clear. I would not be at all surprised to see some locations bottom out with low temperatures below zero next week.

A wintry mixed bag of precipitation is forecast for the local area Monday night into Wednesday night. This may start off with light rain late Monday night, which may quickly change of to light freezing rain or sleet for a little while, and then over to all snow by Tuesday. At this time only light accumulations are being forecast for the local area, but this could change depending upon the track of the mid-upper level winter storm, and the available moisture supply. Significant snowfall totals will be possible across NE-E and Central NM next week.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!