Winter Storm Next Week?

Last Nights Comparison Of The GFS/ECMWF Forecast

Positions Of The 500 MB Closed Upper Level Low

Valid At 5 PM Mon Jan 31, 2011.

Click On The Map To Enlarge It.

GFS Surface Temp Map Valid At 5 AM MST Tue Feb 1, 2011.

GFS Surface Temp Map Valid At 5 AM MST Wed Feb 2, 2011.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST run of the US GFS, and the European ECMWF forecast models, were starting to agree that a closed upper level winter storm will be located in the vicinity of AZ/NM by next Monday. Just how strong and wet this winter storm will be, as well as it's exact track and speed, is still up in the air for the time being. So, it appears for now, that we may have a shot at a wintry mix of precipitation here in SE NM early next week. Lets hope so!

An arctic/polar cold front is also being forecast by the models to arrive sometime in SE NM around next Monday. Potentially very cold air will accompany this frontal boundary, with the GFS model forecasting single digit to teen temperatures across SE NM next Wednesday morning. Temps near zero, to around -5F are being painted for NE NM and the Texas Panhandle.

This event is still some four to six days out so the details on how cold it will get, and how much if any wintry precipitation SE NM may receive, are still up in the air. At least it's something to hope for. I've had a whopping .14" of rainfall at my home in Carlsbad, NM since October 1st. The 30 year average for the Carlsbad Climate Coop Station for Oct-Jan is 3.22". Most stations in SE NM are reporting similar very dry conditions. Even if we do get lucky enough to get a decent snow out of this storm next week, it still will not be enough to break the ongoing strengthening drought.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!