Next Week Looks Interesting.

ECMWF 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Tue Feb 1, 2011.

ECMWF 850 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Tue Feb 1, 2011.

Last nights 00z/5 PM MST run of the European (ECMWF) model, is forecasting a deep trough of low pressure at the upper-levels of the atmosphere (the 500 MB level), digging into the plains states.This would open up the door for an invasion of arctic air into E/SE NM.
If this forecast model is correct, will this arctic outbreak be as cold as the Jan 1st - 2nd, and the Jan 11th-13th, arctic outbreaks in SE NM? It's too early to know yet.

GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Tue Feb1, 2011.

GFS 850 MB Forecast At 5 PM MST Tue Feb 1, 2011.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST run of the US GFS model, is forecasting the phasing of a closed upper level low off of the Baja region, and an approaching short wave trough of low pressure from the Pacific Northwest, over New Mexico around next Tue-Wed. It keeps the brunt of the arctic air well to our north and east. If this is the case, then E/SE NM would not be nearly as cold as the ECMWF forecast for next week.The GFS forecast would give NM a better chance for rain and snow showers, while the ECMWF solution paints a much colder and drier scenario for the state, especially the eastern one-half.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!