Lordsburg, NM Gets 2.35" Of Rain.




Lordsburg got lucky yesterday evening when a thunderstorm dumped 2.35" of rain on them. Once again most of the rain remained over southern New Mexico and bypassed southeastern New Mexico. Hot dry weather is forecast to continue into at least the first of next week.


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Southern New Mexico Gets Rain.


Snapshot Of My SE NM Radar.
Using Holloman AFB Radar @ 6:19 AM MDT.

Via The El Paso/Santa Teresa NWS Dual Pol Radar Using GRLevel 3.200 Software.

Via The Holloman AFB Dual Pol Radar Using GRLevel 3.200 Software.



It is raining but not in southeastern New Mexico. A hot and dry week ahead is in store for us with our afternoon high temperatures forecast to range from the low 90's to near 100 today into the first of next week.

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Latest 10-Day Rainfall Forecasts.





Overall the models are not very optimistic when it comes to rainfall for southeastern New Mexico over the next ten days. However, a tropical wave now located over Texas, will move northwestward into southern New Mexico by Wednesday, and this feature will increase our chances for scattered thunderstorms to break out on Tuesday. 

With the eastern Pacific now becoming more active with tropical storms, the Atlantic Basin is forecast to do the same, it would not take much of a pattern shift to get the monsoon to swing back further to the east, and bring some more rainfall back into the area. So this will have to be watched in the coming weeks.

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Sunset.



Another stellar New Mexico sunset this evening.

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ECMWF Forecasting A Better Chance For Rain Down The Road.



Valid @ 6 PM MDT Sunday, August 25, 2013.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Sunday, August 25, 2013.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, August 24, 2013.

Every once in awhile a Hurricane will form south of the Baja Penisula, work its way northward, and sometimes spread its remnant moisture into our neighborhood. This mornings run of the European (ECMWF) computer model is forecasting just such an event in about a week from this coming Sunday. 

Notice its forecast of much cooler temps, and widespread moderate to heavy rains on Sunday, August 25th via the maps posted above. Will this pan out...maybe, maybe not. I'm sorry but its just a tad early to know for sure so we will just have to wait and see.

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Another Day Of 100-Degree Temps.



For the most part August has been fairly hot and dry over southeastern New Mexico. Contrast this with July which was a cool and wet month for the local area. So far this month I've only manged to squeeze .10" out of my rain gauge here at my home in Carlsbad. Today will be another day with afternoon high temps in the upper 90's to the low 100's. 

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Invest AL92 Over The Yucatan Peninsula - Future Of Storm Highly Uncertain.











With out a doubt the models are really struggling with the easterly wave that is currently located over the Yucatan Peninsula. Since this wave is over land now, and highly disorganized, the models are simply all over the place with their forecasts concerning this system. None of them appear reliable at this time in my opinion.

 Yesterday I thought that this system would be named Erin but that's not to be. Tropical Storm Erin has formed about 115 miles west-southwest of Brava, in the Cape Verde Islands. Erin will generally continue moving westward for the next several days. For now, I won't focus much on this system since it will not be impacting the U.S. mainland anytime soon, if at all.

Back to our storm that is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico by Friday...which will be named Fernand if it strengthens into a Tropical Storm. None of the models have a handle on this situation yet, so its basically useless to try and speculate on where it may be headed. 

Pick any model you want and its forecasts will change with each new run...which happens every 6 to 12 hours. The GFS and ECMWF are still not very impressed that it will even amount to much once it does reemerge into the Gulf of Mexico. We're just going to have to wait until the weekend to get a better idea of what this storm may or may not do, and where it may be headed once it gets back over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

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Trouble In The Gulf Of Mexico - Or Will Invest AL92 Be A Dud?


Blog Updated At 2:15 PM MDT Today.


An area of disturbed weather located northeast of the tip of Honduras and the Cayman islands may now be forming a surface low. This tropical disturbance has a 50% change of becoming a tropical storm within 48 hours, and a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm within the next five days. It is likely to continue moving off towards the northwest towards the Yucatan Peninsula over the next couple of days and then is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. 



Canadian Computer Model Forecast Of Invest AL92.


Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday Morning.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Sunday Morning.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday Morning.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Tuesday Morning.

Valid @ Midnight Tuesday, August 20, 2013.

Trouble in the Gulf of Mexico will headline the news this weekend into next week if the Canadian GEM computer forecast model is anywhere close to being correct with its forecast. Last nights 00Z/6 PM MDT run of this model has a potent Hurricane threatening the lower Texas Gulf Coast by sunrise next Tuesday, and possibly moving inland near Brownsville by midnight.

U.S. GFS Computer Model Forecast Of Invest AL92.


This mornings U.S. GFS computer model forecasts are a world completely different than the Canadian model forecasts. The two models could hardly disagree more. The GFS barley even forecasts a surface low near New Orleans by sunrise Sunday morning, much less a potent Hurricane.

ECMWF Computer Model Forecast Of Invest AL92.


Much like the U.S. GFS model the European model (ECMWF) isn't very excited (yet?) about a potential Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. It too barley has a surface low south of New Orleans by sunset Saturday.

HWRF Forecasts Added.

This Mornings 12Z HWRF Max Wind Speed Swath Forecast.

Valid @ Midnight MDT Sunday, August 18, 2013.


Very warm sea water temps are available for this storm to feed upon. Whether or not the wind shear will weaken and allow it to develop in a Hurricane remains in question. 

Please take these model forecasts with a huge grain of salt. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty concerning this potential future track of this possible Hurricane. The models are all over the place with their future forecasts of where this storm may be headed once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. I seriously doubt that we will have a good idea of what this storm is going to do and where its headed until this weekend when and if it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. 

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