Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Trouble In The Gulf Of Mexico - Or Will Invest AL92 Be A Dud?


Blog Updated At 2:15 PM MDT Today.


An area of disturbed weather located northeast of the tip of Honduras and the Cayman islands may now be forming a surface low. This tropical disturbance has a 50% change of becoming a tropical storm within 48 hours, and a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm within the next five days. It is likely to continue moving off towards the northwest towards the Yucatan Peninsula over the next couple of days and then is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. 



Canadian Computer Model Forecast Of Invest AL92.


Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday Morning.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Sunday Morning.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday Morning.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Tuesday Morning.

Valid @ Midnight Tuesday, August 20, 2013.

Trouble in the Gulf of Mexico will headline the news this weekend into next week if the Canadian GEM computer forecast model is anywhere close to being correct with its forecast. Last nights 00Z/6 PM MDT run of this model has a potent Hurricane threatening the lower Texas Gulf Coast by sunrise next Tuesday, and possibly moving inland near Brownsville by midnight.

U.S. GFS Computer Model Forecast Of Invest AL92.


This mornings U.S. GFS computer model forecasts are a world completely different than the Canadian model forecasts. The two models could hardly disagree more. The GFS barley even forecasts a surface low near New Orleans by sunrise Sunday morning, much less a potent Hurricane.

ECMWF Computer Model Forecast Of Invest AL92.


Much like the U.S. GFS model the European model (ECMWF) isn't very excited (yet?) about a potential Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. It too barley has a surface low south of New Orleans by sunset Saturday.

HWRF Forecasts Added.

This Mornings 12Z HWRF Max Wind Speed Swath Forecast.

Valid @ Midnight MDT Sunday, August 18, 2013.


Very warm sea water temps are available for this storm to feed upon. Whether or not the wind shear will weaken and allow it to develop in a Hurricane remains in question. 

Please take these model forecasts with a huge grain of salt. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty concerning this potential future track of this possible Hurricane. The models are all over the place with their future forecasts of where this storm may be headed once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. I seriously doubt that we will have a good idea of what this storm is going to do and where its headed until this weekend when and if it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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