My Blog Archive List

Show more

Tonight's GFS Is As Drunk As This Mornings ECMWF. Historic Snowstorm Next Weekend?



Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.

Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Surface Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015.

Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Accumulated Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.


Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Clines Corners, New Mexico.

Cannon Air Force Base - Clovis, New Mexico.

Corona, New Mexico.

Sierra Blanca Regional Airport - Ruidoso, New Mexico.

Roswell, New Mexico.

Artesia, New Mexico.

Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Hobbs, New Mexico.

Guadalupe Pass, Texas.

El Paso, Texas.

Blog Updated @ 12:15 AM MST:

Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.

Just took a look at the tonight's run of the European model which just came in. Its forecasting snowfall totals of 26" for Ruidoso, 19" for Roswell, 21" in Artesia, 15" for Carlsbad, and 13" for Hobbs by next Sunday night. I'm Speechless!

Ok I give up. Who poisoned the models with the bad Kool-Aid? Now the U.S. GFS model appears to have been drinking the same kool-aid that this mornings run of the European (ECMWF) model was. Both have fallen off the deep end now concerning next weekends winter storm. This is crazy...really, really crazy. If this scenario p[lays out it will be a historic event. Big If so remember that this isn't set in stone just yet and there is lots of room for lots of changes yet. If I were looking for a perfect setup for a all time historic/record snowstorm then this would be it. 

So I suspect that one of two outcomes is going to happen with this type of model mischief. One they both are on to something and a historic snowstorm is getting ready to bury the area next weekend with record/historic snowfall totals. Or two they simply have been invaded by a host of Gremlins and don't have a clue as to what is about to unfold. 

Tonight's run of the Canadian (GEM) hints at a potential record breaker of a winter storm also but with the heavier snowfall just a tad north of the local area. Go figure. Watching this one unfold this week will be extremely interesting to say the least.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Comments

My Current Davis Vantage Pro Plus Weather

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussions

NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
Current Watches In Effect

Storm Prediction Center

Storm Prediction Center
Severe Weather Outlooks/Watches - Click On The Map To Open It.

NWS Watch/Warning/Hazards Map

NWS Watch/Warning/Hazards Map
Click On The Map To Go To The Live Link.

NWS 12-Hour Surface Map Forecast

NWS 12-Hour Surface Map Forecast
Click On The Map To Open It Up.

NWS Midland Web Page

NWS Midland Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

NWS Midland Radar

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

Eddy County Watches & Warnings

Lea County Watches & Warnings

Culberson County - Guadalupe Mtn's Watches & Warnings

NWS Albuquerque Web Page

NWS Albuquerque Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

Cannon AFB Radar

NWS Albuquerque Radar

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecasts.

Chaves County Watches & Warnings

Lincoln County Watches & Warnings

NWS El Paso Web Page

NWS El Paso Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

Holloman AFB Radar

NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa Radar

NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa Regional Forecasts.

Otero County Watches & Warnings

NWS Lubbock Web Page

NWS Lubbock Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

NWS Lubbock Radar

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecasts.

Regional Radar

Regional Radar
Click On The Map To Enlarge It

CoCoRaHS Daily Rainfall Map

My Photo Slide Show

Cloudcroft Live Webcam