July Rainfall Totals To Date & Number Of Days 100+.

July 22, 2022.
C-Hill Carlsbad, New Mexico.

(As Of 9 AM MDT Sunday, July 24, 2022).

(As Of 9 AM MDT Sunday, July 24, 2022).

(Friday, July 22, 2022).

Slow-moving thunderstorms dumped on the southern Sacramento mountains Friday afternoon. Area radar and satellite estimates indicate that 2"4" of rain fell in the Cox Canyon area northward to the 16-Springs Canyon area. Tim Steeler reported 4.00" of rain Friday afternoon between Cloudcroft and Weed on St Hwy 130. Localized flash flooding occurred. Over the past three days pockets of heavy rainfall have also fallen near the Ruidoso area, northeast of Roswell on the Caprock, and northwest of Hope.

(As Of Saturday, July 23, 2022).

(Valid Today Through Sunday, July 31, 2022).

Mid-summer to late summer is the time of the year when afternoon thunderstorms often are slow movers due to light winds aloft that steer them. They also can and often do persist long into the night sometimes after sunrise the following day. This has been the case this summer.

Overall scattered afternoon and nighttime thunderstorms remain in our local forecasts all of this upcoming week. The most widespread activity will occur over the mountains. With the Four Corners mid-upper level high losing its death grip on the state the monsoon will really become active late this week. A cold front is forecast to move south down the eastern plains late in the week which will add to the mix and increase thunderstorm activity over the area even more so. 

Of course, as has been the case so far this summer the Southeastern Plains will be the least favored area to get in on the fun. We won't be totally left out but can expect hit-and-miss storms that won't be as widespread as other areas of the state over the next week.

Like me, most of you are getting tired of the never-ending 100º plus days. The Caprock Climate Co-Op Station located northeast of Roswell on the Caprock leads the pack with 45 days this year that has hit the century mark or higher. The Roswell Airport is a close second with 43 days. Here at our home in Carlsbad, my Davis Vantage Pro Plus PWS has recorded 36 days. Fall can't come soon enough this year.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Shooting Lightning Photos During A Haboob - Carlsbad, NM 7-21-2022.

Shot From C-Hill In Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Another blistering hot day in SE NM today. I recorded a high temp here at our home in Carlsbad on my Davis Vantage Pro Plus Wireless Personal Weather Station of 103º. The Carlsbad ASOS reported 102º. 

Just before sunset a nice energetic thunderstorm blew up northeast of Carlsbad and started heading southwest. It missed us here in town but dropped nickel to quarter size hail along with strong winds in Loving 12 miles southeast of us. 

Off I go to C-Hill on the west side of town to try and get some lightning shots. This has not been my year for lightning shots. I bought a MIOPS Smart Lightning Trigger for my Nikon D5600. We aren't getting along. I can't get the stupid thing to fire most of the time so back to the drawing board for my research. 

Tonight's issues were interesting to say the least. This thunderstorm quickly became severe as it rolled through Loving. Along with the hail and half of an inch of rain it dumped on them it also produced a haboob. Which of course traveled northwest into Carlsbad during my lightning photo session.

 Trying to get my light settings right along with my manual exposure settings was a nightmare in the 40-50 mph wind gusts, blowing dust, with reduced visibility and sky obscurement. The visibility at the airport 6 miles to my south-southeast was down to 2.5 miles and I estimated about 1-2 miles in town. 

I finally gave up on my lightning trigger and shot these three photos the old-fashioned way. Set the camera in manual mode and open the lens. Sadly I spent most of my time fighting with my lightning trigger instead of concentrating on the storm. Of course, the best lightning strikes occurred when I was arguing with the trigger and not paying attention to the storm. 

And on top of all of this, I forgot that I grabbed my Go Pro camera and forgot to set up it for some time-lapse shots. I hate technology sometimes especially when chasing. This is why I never really got into live streaming when storm chasing. You end up wasting your time fighting with your cameras, internet connections, etc. Instead of enjoying the beauty of the moment during the storm. And trying not to get killed by the things. Oh yeah, it was still 95º at 8:30 PM when I started shooting so I was watching for rattlesnakes...another distraction. 

The blowing dust and sky instrument provided an interesting backdrop for two of my photos along with the city lights. 

Live and learn with better luck next time...I hope. Oh yeah, not a drop of rain at our home in town and so my year-to-date rainfall total stands at 2.47" Only about 4 inches below normal. Think rain, pray for rain, wash your vehicles, do rain dances, something. This drought and excessive is beyond old!

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

One Hot July Afternoon.

July 17, 2022.
Capitan Mountains. 

Blog Updated At 10:10 AM MDT Wed, July 20, 2022.

Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Reported High Temps Tuesday Afternoon & Records For The Date.

Roswell Industrial Airport ASOS High Today 109º Prvs Record 108º In 2019.

Bitter Lakes WLR Climate Co-Op Station 108º Prvs 106º In 2018.
Caprock Climate Co-Op Station 108º Prvs 103º In 2018.

Artesia Climate Co-Op Station 107º Prvs 108º in 1925.=
Brantley Dam Climate Co-Op Station 107º Prvs 106º In 2018.

Artesia Airport AWOS 106º Prvs 104º In 2018. 
Carlsbad Airport ASOS 106º Record 109º In 1965.
2.1NNW Downtown Carlsbad 106º
Paduca Raws SW Of WIPP 106º.
Dell City Mesonet Station 105º.

Alamogordo Airport AWOS 104º Prvs Climate Co-Op Station 102º In 1981, 2018.

Carrizozo PWS 102º.
Caprock Raws 102º.
Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns Natl Park Visitor Center 102º.
Hobbs Airport AWOS 102º. Hobbs Climate Record 108º In 1925.

Carlsbad Caverns AIRNOW 101º.

Dunken Raws 100º.

Mountain Park Climate Co-Op Station 99º Prvs 92º 1937.

Queen Raws 98º.

Elk Climate Co-Op 96º Prvs 93º In 2019.

Mayhill Raws 94º.

Weed PWS 92º.
Smokey Bear Raws 1 NW Ruidoso 92.

Ruidoso Climate Co-Op Station 91º Prvs 91º In 2019.

Sierra Blanca Regional Airport AWOS 90º.

Timberon PWS 89º.
Mescalero Raws 89º.

Cloudcroft Climate Co-Op Station 81º Prvs Record 80º In 1981, 2004.

Sierra Blanca Snotel NE Of Ski Apache (10,280') 72º.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Stuck With Unrelenting Summer Heat & No Rain.

Valid At Noon Today.

Valid At Noon Tuesday, July 19, 2022.

At 10:31 AM MDT Today.

Those red and orange shades depicted across most of New Mexico and Texas indicate dry air at the mid-upper -levels of the atmosphere (5,000' to 40,000'). 






6-10 Day Forecasts.

8-14 Days Forecasts.

Stuck With Unrelenting Summer Heat & No Rain.

Our annual summer monsoon started up with a bang this year and about two weeks earlier than normal. Now the brakes have been put on so to speak as the widespread thunderstorm activity we've seen over the past several weeks dwindles to just about nothing. 

A stout ridge of high pressure at the mid-levels of the atmosphere (500 millibar level) centered today over northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado has a death grip on the region and isn't going to budge much until around the middle to end of next week. The center will wobble around the Four Corners area during this time.

Across the lower elevations of the Southern Plains, we will continue to see our afternoon daily high temperatures hover in the 100º to 105º range today through next Tuesday. It's possible that a few locations will exceed 105º for high temps during this time.

Across the northern Sacramento mountains, your high temperatures will range from the mid 80's to near 90º in the Ruidoso, Alto, and Capitan areas.

Across the southern Sacramento mountains, your high temperatures will range from the low-mid 70's in the Cloudcroft area. And the mid 80's in the Mayhill, Mountain Park, Timberon, and Weed/Sacramento areas. 

Overall the chances for rain over the local area have dwindled to just about zero. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible over near the mountains but widespread thunderstorm activity is not in the cards until the middle to end of next week. The forecast models are hinting at another surge of monsoonal moisture overspreading the western and central areas of the state by then. 

Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance).

During June, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean with SSTs returning to near-average in the east-central Pacific [Fig. 1], as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.4°C to -1.2°C during the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth were weakly positive in June [Fig. 3]. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to ~75m depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the western and central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained suppressed over the western and central Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña conditions.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index now forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus also predicts La Niña to persist during the remainder of 2022, with odds for La Niña remaining at 60% or greater through early winter. Lowest odds occur during the next few months with a 60% chance of La Niña and a 39% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. Subsequently, chances of La Niña increase slightly during the fall and early winter. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 August 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

NM Max Temps & Year-To-Date Rainfall Totals As Of July 11, 2022.

July 6, 2022.
Looking SE Towards Black River Village.

And The # Of Days With Hight Temperatures of 100º Or Higher.

(January 1st - July 11, 2022).

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

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