Welcome To Southeast New Mexico Weather.: 05/01/2019

Friday, May 31, 2019

Once Again Severe T-Storms Possible Today, Tonight, Saturday.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NWS Midland Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NWS Midland Severe Weather Outlook Saturday

NWS Albuquerque Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NWS El Paso Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NWS NDFD Rainfall Forecast Totals.

(Today Through 6 AM MDT Monday).

Weather Prediction Center 7-Day Rainfall Forecast Totals.

Like a broken record that has been stuck in the same old grove playing the same song over and over again...our local weather forecasts once again promise rain and severe weather today into Saturday.

All of the severe weather parameters will come in to play today, this evening, and again Saturday. This includes scattered supercell thunderstorms that will produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rains that may lead to localized flash flooding.

All I can say is look out when a storm does roll over us/you. It will be catch-up time in a hurry. Thunderstorms remain in our forecast through the weekend into next week too.

Latest Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Discussion-

(Issued At 10:27 AM MDT This Friday Morning).

..Texas to eastern NM...


   An isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk should
   exist downstream of an ongoing short line segment in east-central
   TX. 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will be common ahead of this segment,
   with potential for additional development towards the Upper TX
   Coastal Plain this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear should limit
   the potential for greater organization. 

   Farther west, weak mid/upper height rises will occur late today into
   tonight. Nevertheless, ample low-level moisture characterized by low
   to mid 60s surface dew points currently across the Pecos
   Valley/Permian Basin will foster scattered storm development over
   the higher terrain of southeast NM and the TX Trans-Pecos by late
   afternoon. A veering wind profile with height in conjunction with
   favorable speed shear from 500-250 mb should support a large hail
   risk along with isolated sig. Consolidation of convection into a
   small MCS tonight appears possible in parts of west TX. Increasingly
   weak 700-500 mb flow amid the height rises should limit organization
   potential and marginalize the risk for severe wind gusts.

Thunderstorm Produces Damages In Dexter Yesterday Afternoon.

(Courtesy Of Jim Tucker On Facebook).

Image may contain: sky, cloud, night, outdoor and nature

SPC Storm Reports Thursday, May 30th, 2019.

(6:47 PM MDT).

Quote- "Kudos to Lynn Coats, (aka Core Punch), for providing real time reports from a storm that produced strong winds and nickel sized hail. The storm crossed U.S. 285 at Ojibwa Road then proceeded in an easterly direction causing extensive damage including Rock Hill Dairy. I believe photo credit goes to Dexter Fire Chief Justin Powell, except for the shot from inside Lynn's vehicle."

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

Thursday, May 30, 2019

Much Cooler Today Along With Severe Thunderstorms.

Blog Updated At 7:26 AM MDT.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NWS Midland Severe Weather Outlook Today.

Weather Prediction Center Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Monday.

Latest Outlook From The Storm Prediction Center.

(Issued At 6:55 AM MDT).

...Eastern New Mexico to west/south Texas...

   Initially, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
   this morning across the Edwards Plateau near the Rio Grande. Hail is
   the most probable hazard. Otherwise, a front will continue to settle
   southward today across much of south/southwest Texas, with
   increasingly moist (albeit modestly so) low-level upslope
   trajectories gradually increasing across southwest Texas/southeast
   New Mexico, northward toward the Raton Mesa vicinity. Aside from
   evolving upslope/orographic lift, forcing for ascent will increase
   through peak heating with a northeastward-moving weak shortwave
   trough/modest speed max crossing New Mexico.

   The greatest combination of deep-layer shear and moderate/strong
   instability will exist from far southeast New Mexico across the
   Transpecos to Big Bend vicinity of southwest Texas, with supercells
   capable of large hail (perhaps locally significant) and perhaps some
   tornado risk most probable within this corridor. Other more isolated
   severe storms will be possible as far north as the Raton Mesa
   vicinity/southeast Colorado.

   The increase of a southeasterly low-level jet this evening may allow
   for a general east/southeastward propagation this evening, possibly
   with upscale growth into one or more gradually accelerating
   clusters. This would increase the potential for locally damaging
   winds aside from hail, mainly across southwest Texas and the Rio
   Grande vicinity.

   ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/30/2019

So far this has been one wild spring. Numerous severe weather events have affected the area with the most activity having occurred along and east of the NM/TX State line. This past holiday weekend saw several rounds of severe thunderstorms most notably in New Mexico this past weekend. Tornadoes were reported northeast of Roswell, south of Portales, near Dora, Logan, and Clayton. Hobbs was hit with 2" diameter hail (lime or hen egg size) while golf ball size hail was reported in Jal.

We are not done yet. For those of you who are hoping for rain its coming but more than likely with a price. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for the local area today into Friday morning. Some of these will be of the supercell type which will produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will also be a concern especially over and near the mountains. This includes Eddy County and nearby areas.

A few tornadoes will also be possible with the supercell thunderstorms that fire along the stationary frontal boundary draped over the region. Tonight we may see a cluster of thunderstorms develop that could persists well into Friday morning. This will pose a damaging wind threat along with a heavy rain and flash flood threat. Storm total rainfall amounts could get up to around 3" maybe higher if training thunderstorms develop.

Thunderstorms are forecast to continue into the upcoming weekend.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

Monday, May 27, 2019

Rain Everywhere But Not Here.

24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

2-Day Rainfall Totals.

7-Day Rainfall Totals.

Kansas And Oklahoma 7-Day Rainfall Totals.

(Courtesy Of CoCoRaHS).

Although the dryline has been very active for the past week most of Southeastern New Mexico has missed out on the storms and thus the rain. The exception of course is Lea County and other New Mexico Counties located near the NM/TX State line. This is fairly common in May. May can either be bust or boom rainfall-wise for us and so far this year it has been mostly bust.

Then you have southern and southeastern Kansas and northern and extreme northeastern Oklahoma where 10" to 15" of rain has fallen in the past week alone. Severe to historical flooding continues in many of those areas.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

Sunday, May 26, 2019

Severe T-Storm Watch #255 In Effect Until 9 PM MDT For SE NM.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #255

In Effect From 2:40 PM MDT Through 9:00 PM MDT.

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 255
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   340 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southeastern New Mexico
     West central Texas

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
     inches in diameter likely.
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible.
     A tornado or two possible.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop along a dryline in New Mexico
   and spread east-northeastward into west central Texas this evening. 
   The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing
   large hail, and possible an isolated tornado.  Some upscale growth
   of storms into more of a line is possible this evening, with the
   potential for damaging gusts.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast
   of Cannon Afb NM to 15 miles southwest of Hobbs NM. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 252...WW 253...WW 254...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
   24035.

   ...Thompson

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon/Evening Across SE NM.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook Today.