Showing posts from May, 2019

Once Again Severe T-Storms Possible Today, Tonight, Saturday.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NWS Midland Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NWS Midland Severe Weather Outlook Saturday

NWS Albuquerque Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NWS El Paso Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NWS NDFD Rainfall Forecast Totals. (Today Through 6 AM MDT Monday).

Weather Prediction Center 7-Day Rainfall Forecast Totals.

Like a broken record that has been stuck in the same old grove playing the same song over and over again...our local weather forecasts once again promise rain and severe weather today into Saturday.
All of the severe weather parameters will come in to play today, this evening, and again Saturday. This includes scattered supercell thunderstorms that will produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rains that may lead to localized flash flooding. 
All I can say is look out when a storm does roll over us/you. It will be catch-up time in a hurry. Thunderstorms remain in our …

Much Cooler Today Along With Severe Thunderstorms.

Blog Updated At 7:26 AM MDT.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NWS Midland Severe Weather Outlook Today.

Weather Prediction Center Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Monday.
Latest Outlook From The Storm Prediction Center. (Issued At 6:55 AM MDT).
 ...Eastern New Mexico to west/south Texas...
   Initially, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
   this morning across the Edwards Plateau near the Rio Grande. Hail is
   the most probable hazard. Otherwise, a front will continue to settle
   southward today across much of south/southwest Texas, with
   increasingly moist (albeit modestly so) low-level upslope
   trajectories gradually increasing across southwest Texas/southeast
   New Mexico, northward toward the Raton Mesa vicinity. Aside from
   evolving upslope/orographic lift, forcing for ascent will increase
   through peak heating with a northeastward-moving weak shortwave
   trough/modest speed max crossing New Mexico.

The greatest combinat…

Rain Everywhere But Not Here.

24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

2-Day Rainfall Totals.

7-Day Rainfall Totals.

Kansas And Oklahoma 7-Day Rainfall Totals. (Courtesy Of CoCoRaHS).

Although the dryline has been very active for the past week most of Southeastern New Mexico has missed out on the storms and thus the rain. The exception of course is Lea County and other New Mexico Counties located near the NM/TX State line. This is fairly common in May. May can either be bust or boom rainfall-wise for us and so far this year it has been mostly bust.
Then you have southern and southeastern Kansas and northern and extreme northeastern Oklahoma where 10" to 15" of rain has fallen in the past week alone. Severe to historical flooding continues in many of those areas. 
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

Severe T-Storm Watch #255 In Effect Until 9 PM MDT For SE NM.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #255

In Effect From 2:40 PM MDT Through 9:00 PM MDT.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 255 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeastern New Mexico West central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely. Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible. A tornado or two possible. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop along a dryline in New Mexico and spread east-northeastward into west central Texas this evening. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing large hail, and possible an isolated tornado. Some upscale growth of storms into more of a line …

Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon/Evening Across SE NM.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NAM 3KM Surface Based Cape Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.
NAM 3K Lifted Index Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.
NAM 3K Mid-Level Lapse Rate Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.
0-6 KM Bulk Shear Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.
Supercell Composite Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.
Significant Tornado Parameter Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.
NAM 3K Forecast Sounding For NE Eddy County.
Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to pop up along and east of the dryline this afternoon and evening across parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. Just exactly where the dryline is located late this afternoon and early this evening will be a big determining factor in where the storms are. 
As of 10:30 AM MDT widely scattered rain showers were already developing in western Lea County.
As of 10 AM MDT this morning the dryline is still hung u…

Updated Severe Weather Outlook Today Into Sunday.

Blog Updated At 10:52 AM MDT Friday, May 24th, 2019.

Heavy Rains Fall West Of Lubbock.
Valid At 8 AM MDT Friday, May 24th, 2019. GRLevel3 24-Hour Radar Estimated Rainfall.
NWS Lubbock Doppler Radar 24-Hour Estimated Rainfall.
Some of the heaviest rainfall reports with radar estimates colored in. Heaviest amount was likely 5 to 6 inches between Levelland and Morton.
Severe Weather Outlook Today - Sunday.

11:41am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Enhanced Risk: over a portion of west texas — NWS SPC (@NWSSPC) May 24, 2019
There is Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Main threats include large hail and damaging winds. There is a also a slim tornado chance. Please stay vigilant, especially if you have outdoor plans this evening! — NWS Midland (@NWSMidland) May 24, 2019
A SLIGHT to ENHANCED severe weather threat exists from Lubbock to Amarillo on Saturday while a SLIGHT risk extends f…

Hit & Miss T-Storms To Return - Some Severe.

New Mexico/Texas Rainfall Totals. (May 19th - 21st, 2019).

Once again Southeastern New Mexico was left high and dry by the latest storm to impact the state and area. Not necessarily a bad thing considering the magnitude and scope of the severe weather that has impacted our neighbors.
Peak Wind Gusts. (As Of 11 PM MDT Tuesday, May 21st, 2019).

Widely Scattered T-Storms Return.

GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Analysis.
Valid At Midnight Last Night.
GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast.
Valid At 6 AM MDT Thursday Morning.
Surface Map Forecast.
Valid At Midnight Tonight.
Storm Prediction Center 2-Day Severe Weather Outlook. (Thursday).

GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecasts.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West Texas including much of the Panhandle * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter expected Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense tornadic supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop across west Texas as the eastern half of the Texas Panhandle. In addition to the risk of strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds are likely in the strongest cells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statu…

Updated Severe Weather Outlook At 8:22 AM MDT.



 Issued at 0922 AM CDT/0822 AM MDT MONDAY, MAY 20 2019

   ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains today and tonight...


     Much of Oklahoma
     Northwest Texas and eastern Texas Panhandle

   * HAZARDS...

     Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track.

     Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force.

    Widespread large hail, some baseball size.

   * SUMMARY...

     An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent, is expected today into this evening over portions of northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma.

More-isolated but still potentially dangerous severe weather, including tornadoes and destructive winds and hail, is possible in  surrounding parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas.

   Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Sta…

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