Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon/Evening Across SE NM.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NAM 3KM Surface Based Cape Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.

NAM 3K Lifted Index Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.

NAM 3K Mid-Level Lapse Rate Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.

0-6 KM Bulk Shear Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.

Supercell Composite Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.

Significant Tornado Parameter Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.

NAM 3K Forecast Sounding For NE Eddy County.

Valid At 6 PM MDT This Afternoon.

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to pop up along and east of the dryline this afternoon and evening across parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. Just exactly where the dryline is located late this afternoon and early this evening will be a big determining factor in where the storms are. 

As of 10:30 AM MDT widely scattered rain showers were already developing in western Lea County.

As of 10 AM MDT this morning the dryline is still hung up along the east slopes of the Guadalupe and Sacramento mountains...it had backed as far west as Dell City earlier this morning. It will mix eastward later this afternoon stalling somewhere near the Caprock, then back back westward around sunset. Dew point temperatures across the southeastern plains are in the mid 60's this morning.

Using this mornings 6 AM MDT NAM 3K forecast sounding and severe weather parameter forecasts it appears that we will be right on the edge of the dryline at 6 PM this afternoon. Should the dryline not mix as far east as currently forecast then there would be a greater chance for severe thunderstorms in and near the Pecos Valley today. 

This mornings severe weather parameter forecasts along with the SPC Day-1 Severe Weather Outlook indicate that any thunderstorm that does form will be severe. Supercell thunderstorms are likely along and east of the dryline.

Forecast Sounding Parameters.

No CAP/CIN.

High Temps Mid 90's.

Lifted Index values of -13C.

 Significant Tornado Parameter of 4.

0-6 KM Bulk Wind Shear values of 60 to 70 knots.

 Storm Relative Helicity values of 100-300 M2/S/2.

Surface based cape values are forecast to be in the 3,500 to 4,500 j/kg range.

The main severe weather threat appears to be large hail perhaps a few isolated cases of very large hail. Forecast soundings late this afternoon in northeast Eddy County indicate hail of around baseball size. 

Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will also be possible with any severe thunderstorm that develops. Frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorm. Remember "When Thunder Roars - Go Indoors."

Thunderstorms should begin to fire up around noontime as a short wave approaches from the southwest out of northwestern Mexico. 

Its not totally out of the question that a few tornadoes may also develop this afternoon and evening. 

Today will be a day to keep a close eye on our local weather and have a plan of action ready to implement should severe weather impact your location. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!