Threat For Heavy Rains & Flash Flooding Increasing - A Few Severe T-Storms Possible.
At 3:21 PM MDT Sunday, May 12th, 2019.
Snapshot Taken At 4:40 PM MDT Sunday, May 12th, 2019.
Looking at the water vapor satellite image, the RAP 500 millibar analysis, and the region radar view of the area and you can clearly see the closed mid/upper level low off to our west, south of Tuscon in northwestern Mexico.
This closed low is forecast to move east-northeastward tonight into Monday. By sunrise Monday morning is will be south or southwest of El Paso.
A line of strong to most likely a few severe thunderstorms has developed in northern Mexico southwest of El Paso and is moving slowly northeastward. Other thunderstorms have developed over far southwest Texas and southern and central New Mexico.
Thunderstorms should start impacting southeastern New Mexico's weather beginning around 9 PM tonight and continuing into Monday afternoon. Some of these may become severe and produce damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and large hail.
Of more concern will be the threat for training thunderstorms that will have the potential to dump heavy to very heavy rainfall. Training thunderstorms are thunderstorms that form in a line, one after another, and move over the same area much like a train with its associated rail cars would. Thunderstorms could be ongoing of and on throughout much of the night tonight into Monday afternoon.
Rainfall totals tonight into Monday afternoon across parts of the local area here in Southeastern New Mexico including the Guadalupe and Sacramento mountains could be in the 1" to 3" range. A few isolated spots could possibly see higher totals than this.
Thus the threat for flash flooding will be going up tonight into Monday. More so across areas to our east and south Monday night as the storm begins to pull away from us.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!