Potential For Heavy Rain & Flash Flooding Late This Weekend Into Early Next Week.
What a shock that was. As forecast a stout cold front slipped into the local area and knocked the bottom out of our thermometers last night into today. Many of our local high temperatures for the day we set at or around midnight. Unless something changes some of our local daily "coldest high" temperature records for May 10th will be broken.
Compare These Readings With The Record "Lowest High" Temperatures For May 10th-
Roswell ThreadEx 59ºF In 1913
Artesia Climate 64ºF In 1947
Carlsbad Climate 66ºF In 2007
Carlsbad Airport 62º In 2012
Hobbs Climate 61ºF In 1947
Tatum Climate 62ºF In 2007
Elk Climate 55ºF In 2012
Ruidoso Climate 57ºF In 1979
Cloudcroft Climate 44ºF In 1969
Analysis At Noon MDT Today.
Forecast At 6 AM MDT Sunday.
Forecast At 6 AM MDT Monday.
As of noontime today our closed mid/upper level low was located near San Diego. It is forecast to crawl eastward this weekend and by Sunday morning should be located somewhere near El Paso. Our first shortwave kicked out by our storm to our west dropped light rainfall totals over the local area today. A rain and snow mix was noted over the higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains. The Ski Apache web cam showed the ground dusted with light snow this morning.
Valid Tonight Through 6 PM MDT Monday.
Concerns are high that as the storm to our west slowly crawls eastward this weekend into the first of next week heavy rains could lead to flash flooding across parts of the area. For now the main window of opportunity for this will be from Sunday night into Tuesday morning. The WPC model shows 1" to 3" over the Southeastern Plains.
SREF Mean Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid Tonight Through Midnight Monday Night.
In close agreement but the overall totals but slightly different in the locations of the highest rainfall is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF).
NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid Tonight Through Midnight Sunday.
Then there is today's Noon MDT run of the NAM which paints excessive rainfall in the order of 6" to 8" over Lea County by midnight Sunday night. I hate it when a model does this. These totals seems ridiculous but then again it is May with a closed/cutoff mid/upper level low stalling to our west with a good southwesterly moisture fetch. So maybe these totals are not that far off.
Bottom line is this. Another shortwave is approaching the area now (5:30 PM MDT Friday) and will produce another round of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Saturday morning. Then we get somewhat of a break Saturday although there will be a few showers and storms around.
Then things ramp up again Sunday into Tuesday morning. The potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding should be closely monitored.
By The Way It Snowed...A Lot In Some Parts Of New Mexico Last Night Into Today.
The biggest snow of the season has hit the Moreno Valley. 18” at the base of @AngelFireResort with 24” up high at the summit. Shadow the avalanche dog is loving it. #nmwx pic.twitter.com/kOLodSejQ7— Mark Ronchetti (@KRQEMark) May 9, 2019
May 11, 2019Angel Fire, New Mexico this morning...
Light dusting of snow between Fort Sumner and Santa Rosa, very foggy and roads slick. #nmwx @JoeKOAT @NWSAlbuquerque pic.twitter.com/cMah8lj8pH— Vincent Rodriguez (@VinceKOAT) May 10, 2019
Radar Update Through 1 PM MDT - Widespread rain and snow to continue as the snow level gradually lifts above 6500'. A few embedded thunderstorms possible. #nmwx pic.twitter.com/qqFNG3tVWt— NWS Albuquerque (@NWSAlbuquerque) May 10, 2019
It’s May and Ski Apache woke up to snow this morning, unbelievable! This picture is courtesy of the Ski Apache webcam. #NMWX pic.twitter.com/Se6juOe2NF— Kyle Hanson (@KyleHansonKVIA) May 10, 2019
(As Of 12:36 PM MDT Friday, May 10th, 2019).
24-Hour Rainfall Totals.
24-Hour Snowfall Totals.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!