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Thursday, January 16, 2025

Strong Arctic Cold Front Arrives Late Friday Night Into Saturday - Second Stronger Surge Next Monday!

January 10, 2025.
Road To Nowhere West Of Artesia.


Valid At 5:00 PM MST Friday, January 17, 2025.

High Winds/Blowing Dust Friday!
Turning Much Colder Friday Night Into Saturday Night!

An approaching upper-level disturbance will sweep across the state on Friday producing strong to damaging winds across parts of the eastern and southeastern plains as well as the Sacramento mountains. Westerly winds will increase to sustained speeds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts in the 60 to 65 mph range in the High Wind Watch and High Wind Warnings areas. West winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts near 55 mph in the Wind Advisory areas. 

Across the Guadalupe mountains of Eddy County and Culberson County in West Texas westerly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 35 to 55 mph with gusts near 85 mph on Friday where a High Wind Warning remains in effect. 

Localized wind damage will be possible on Friday in those areas that experience wind gusts of 60 mph or higher. 

Areas of blowing dust are also expected on Friday, especially in the warned areas. Sudden drops in the visibility down to near zero with little to no advanced warning will occur during the stronger gusts. Dangerous travel conditions will develop in these areas especially over and near freshly plowed or exposed farmlands, open fields, lots, highway construction sites, and other normally dust-prone locations. 

Our first onslaught of very cold arctic air will arrive in northeastern New Mexico late Friday into Saturday. A second colder surge of arctic air will backdoor southward and westward through the state on Monday. Much of the eastern one-half of New Mexico will drop below freezing Saturday night into possibly Wednesday. 

Light snow is forecast to accompany the harsh cold fronts as they move southward and westward through the state. Dangerous driving conditions will develop due to the snow, blowing snow, poor visibility, and slick roads in areas that receive the heaviest snowfall including the northeastern and eastern plains Saturday night. 

Round two is currently forecast for Sunday into Monday with the heaviest snowfall expected over northeastern New Mexico. Total snowfall forecasts across northeastern and eastern New Mexico is expected to range from a dusting to to 2" with 2" to 5" possible across northeastern New Mexico.

Light snow is possible across the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe mountains and parts of the southeastern plains Monday night. 

What happens from Monday into next week is still debatable. Other than is will be very cold state-wide for sure. The models are still dancing around trying to figure out the upper-level storm pattern and track so nothing is for certain yet in their forecasts.

The Canadian forecast model continues to advertise a brutally cold airmass settling into the state Monday into Wednesday. Whether or not our temps drop down as low as this model's forecast this morning is calling for remains to be seen. The European model is trending colder while the GFS model seems lost in my opinion. So expect forecast changes this weekend into the first of next week. 

With a lot of uncertainty still in our forecasts please check my weather web page often and stay up to date on all watches, warnings, advisories, and forecasts that will be issued Friday into next week. 

Thursday, January 2, 2025

Turning Much Colder With A Chance For Some Of The White Stuff Next Week?


December 29, 2024.
Just Outside Of Hondo, New Mexico.

Model Confusion Continues.

Flip-flopping all over the place best describes the latest forecast model runs (as of 5 AM MST this Thursday morning). Which is fairly common when they are trying to nail down their forecasts on a winter storm that is still at least six to ten days away from impacting us. Anyway, this is a first look at what appears to be some significant changes in our weather for next week.

Ahead of next week's colder and stormier weather, our high temps on Saturday are forecast to climb up into the mid 70's here in southeastern New Mexico and near 80 across parts of West Texas. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Saturday for parts of New Mexico. 

A strong cold front is forecast to move southeastward into New Mexico during the day Saturday. A reinforcing shot of cold air moves in Sunday night. Our temperatures are forecast to be drop below normal beginning Sunday and continuing through all of next week. How cold it will get is still in question and will be until the models resolve their differences on the evolution, timing, and track of the incoming winter storm and associated arctic airmass. 

How much snow falls, when, and where is still uncertain as of this writing. It all depends upon where an upper-level low forms, where it tracks, and how fast it hangs around the region next week. Cold air will be in place so we will see mostly snow instead of rain if the storm tracks right. 

Snow may develop across northern New Mexico as early as next Monday. Then spread southward over the state and area Tuesday into Thursday. I have little doubt that all of this will change as we get closer to the first of next week. So for now take all of this with a grain of salt. Changes are coming but to what extent I won't know until late this weekend of the first of next week. 

There are some indications that next week's winter storm could bring moderate to heavy snow to parts of New Mexico and nearby areas. And given the winter drought this would be welcome news for most of us. 

Current US Temps

Current US Wind Chill/Heat Index Temperatures

NWS Midland Forecast High Temperatures

NWS Midland Forecast Low Temperatures

NWS Midland Minimum Wind Chill Temperature Forecast.

NWS Midland Official Snowfall Forecast

NWS Midland Official High End Snowfall Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Forecast High Temperatures

NWS Albuquerque Forecast Low Temperatures

NWS Albuquerque Minimum Wind Chill Temperature Forecast.

NWS Albuquerque Official Snowfall Forecast

NWS Albuquerque High End Snowfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Forecast High Temperatures

NWS El Paso Forecast Low Temperatures

NWS El Paso Minimum Wind Chill Temperature Forecast

NWS El Paso Official Snowfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Official High End Snowfall Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Peak Wind Gust Forecast

NWS Midland Peak Wind Gust Forecast

NWS El Paso Peak Wind Gust Forecast

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall/Snowfall

What's Going On - Waking Up To The Truth!