My First Chase Of The Year - Severe T-Storms Saturday?






My First Storm Chase Of The Year.

I took off out of Carlsbad yesterday at 12:30 PM MDT and headed east to Eunice, New Mexico, then south to Jal, and Kermit Texas. Then I headed east to 20 miles west of Odessa, Texas when I turned to the north and worked my way towards Andrews. 

Oilfield traffic was pretty bad in Kermit to the Goldsmith area on Hwy 302. But overall it was an unventful trip at that point. I took FM RD 181 north and darted east and northeast towards Andrews. 

At 4:42 PM CDT, I stopped and took the photo above of ping pong ball-sized hail on the ground 9 miles southwest of Andrews. I then worked my way north into Andrews on Hwy 385 where 1" diameter hail had just ended 2 miles south-southeast of Andrews at 4:46 PM CDT. 

I worked my way northeast from Andrews on a number of farm market roads headed generally towards Seminole. A severe thunderstorm north of me kept showing signs of rotation but I was on the south and southeast side of it and all I could see was black and blue from the rain shaft. I never saw a funnel or tornado with this storm. 

Between 5:42 and 5:55 PM CDT, I watched three landspout funnel clouds (photos above) form on the back side of a severe warned thunderstorm about 14 miles southeast of Seminole. They never touched down. 

I stopped in Seminole and had dinner, took the sunset photo above, and headed home back to Carlsbad. A 386-mile roundtrip. Not a dramatic storm chase but it was fun to be out there wandering around again. 

Severe T-Storms Possible Eastern/Southeastern New Mexico Saturday?



Valid At 6 AM MDT Friday.


Valid At 6 PM MDT Saturday.







A weak backdoor cold front will slide slowly south down the eastern plains and into the southeastern plains this afternoon and evening. Not much of a temperature change is forecast to accompany this front. But what it will do is increase the low-level easterly and southeasterly upslope flow from the Gulf of Mexico behind it on Friday and Saturday.

Meanwhile, a strong late-season mid-upper level closed low will dive southeastward toward northern California by Saturday around sunset. Shortwaves rotating northeastward over the region will aid in the development of thunderstorms across the eastern and southeastern plains on Saturday.

The extent and coverage at this time (Thursday morning) does not appear to be significant or widespread but at least we may get see some storms and rain finally. 

For now, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma places areas close to the state line in the Marginal Risk category on Saturday. This may change between now and Saturday. The main severe weather threats at this time appear to be large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. There also could be a risk for localized flash flooding depending upon the atmospheric setup on Saturday. 

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

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