Haboob West Of Seminole, Texas.
A Backing Dryline Combined With T-Storm Outflow Winds Produced This Haboob.
Much of the region could see strong to severe thunderstorms today into tonight, with low (10-40%) severe risk along and just east of the higher terrain, medium (40-70%) severe risk across portions of Southeast New Mexico, the far northern Permian Basin, and high (70-100%) severe risk across much of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau.
Storm chances begin around 2 PM CDT and continue through the night, with the most likely period for severe between 4 PM and 8 PM CDT before storms begin moving eastward.
All severe hazards are possible today, including very large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, lightning, and heavy rain leading to flash flooding.
Ensure weather alerts on your smart devices are turned on, and have multiple ways to receive warnings. If you have outdoor plans, consider postponing or rescheduling if possible. Know where to go and what to do if severe weather strikes. And shelter vehicles from hail damage if possible.
NWS Albuquerque Forecast.
Significant Widespread Severe Weather Outbreak Today!
A widespread significant severe weather outbreak is forecast for parts of southeastern New Mexico and West Texas today. As of 7 AM MDT this Saturday morning
The Storm Prediction Center and the Midland National Weather Service Office are calling for an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the southern half of Lea County, and eastward and southward into the Permian Basin.
Chaves, Eddy, and northern Lea Counties are in the Slight Risk Area Outlook for today.
Note: This is the current thinking where the highest risk for severe is currently being forecast (as of 7 AM MDT). The Storm Prediction Center will issue another update by around 10:30 AM MDT this morning and these outlook areas may change somewhat. Do not focus just on these areas but be prepared for severe weather across all of southeastern New Mexico and nearby West Texas.
Severe thunderstorms will develop rapidly and intensify rapidly across all of the local area. Tens of thousands of people will be engaged in outdoor activities today into this evening celebrating the Cinco de Mayo weekend festivities and others. It is extremely important that everyone in southeastern New Mexico, and West Texas, remain weather aware and be prepared to seek shelter if/when a severe thunderstorm impacts your location today into this evening! Be ready to act quickly and seek proper shelter...your life may depend upon it.
All modes of severe weather are possible today and into this evening. This includes a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes (particularly in the Enhanced Risk Area). Very large hail and destructive hail (baseball size or greater), damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, locally heavy rainfall, and flash flooding.
A slow southward moving cold front will sink into southeastern New Mexico today as well as West Texas. A triple point junction will set up over southeastern New Mexico and West Texas with a surface low and dryline over the area. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of, along, and behind these surface boundaries.
The atmosphere will become highly unstable and supportive of supercell thunderstorm development today into this evening. Surface base cape values are currently forceast to reach 3,000 to 4,000 j/kg, with 0-6 km shear values of 40 to 60 kts, aided by surface dewpoints in the 60's, and an approaching upper-level disturbance.
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There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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