Current NWS Watches/Warnings/Hazards - Click On The Map For Your Area Of Interest.

Current NWS Watches/Warnings/Hazards - Click On The Map For Your Area Of Interest.
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Regional Radar

New Mexico

Eddy County Plains & Guadalupe Mtn's

Guadalupe Mtn's In Culberson County

Chaves County Plains & Mtn's

Lea County

Lincoln County

Otero County

The Windy Season Is Upon Us.


Mother Nature Calms Down For A Few Days.

As bad as yesterday's weather was, it could have ended up being much worse. Peak wind speeds were not as strong as forecast (see yesterday's summary for a listing of the peak winds across the area) across the Guadalupe Mountains and Eddy County. That is not necessarily a bad thing either. The main core of the strongest winds aloft swept across the northern sections of southeastern New Mexico and eastern New Mexico. Thus the Roswell Airport peaked out at 63 mph, while gusts to 61-64 mph were recorded in the Clovis area.

March is upon us, and with this comes the beginning of the meteorological spring, and of course the official start to our windy season. This is not my favorite time of the year trust me. Given the fact that we continue to sink deeper into our ongoing drought, and the fact the La Nina continues to hang on, we can only expect more of what of we experienced yesterday for the next couple of months. 

Mother nature will take a break most of this week from her rampaging wind fits. At least until about Thursday or Friday when the next upper-level trough of low pressure sweeps by to our north. We are not out of the danger zone for freezing temperatures just yet. Our lows tonight will be near freezing across the area, and this will occur again Saturday morning behind yet another Dry Pacific Cold Front.

Meanwhile we will start another warming trend Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures forecast to be in the upper 70's. Wednesday will continue the warming trend with highs in the mid-upper 80's, and Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 80's. A few spots could even flirt with the 90 degree mark.

Strong southwesterly winds will increase across the area Thursday afternoon, ahead of the next fast moving upper-level storm due to sweep across the state on Friday. A Dry Pacific Cold Front will move eastward across the area Friday night, which will help to knock our daytime highs back down into the 60's for Saturday.

More High Winds Extreme Fire Danger Next Week!


Looking ahead to next week the models are already hinting at the possibility of another high wind event across the area. Of course this far out there are some differences in the models on the exact track, strength, and speed of this potential dry wind bag of a storm. Do you see a pattern developing here? For now it appears that the Polar Jet Stream will continue to dive southward out of the Pacific Northwest, and send these strong southern stream storms over the state roughly every 5-7 days or so. Oh joy, just what we need, more wind, dust, and fire weather conditions! NOT!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Dangerous High Wind/Blowing Dust/Fire Weather Event Sunday!

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook!

Update Sunday (6:00 PM MST) Feb 27, 2011-

A Dust Storm Warning Is In Effect For SE NM Until 8 PM MST.

Peak Wind Gusts Reported As Of 6:00 PM MST-

San Augustin Pass-East Of Las Cruces 89 mph
Guadalupe Pass 84 mph
Bowl Raws 71 mph
Jdon-NE Of Alto 64 mph
Clovis-CW3200 64 mph
Lovington 64 mph
Roswell Airport 63 mph
Cannon AFB-Clovis 61 mph
Clovis Municipal Airport 61 mph
High Roll-CW5738 59 mph
2 SW Tatum 59 mph
Pinery Raws-Pine Springs 58 mph
Dunken Raws 57 mph
Cosmic Raws-Sunspot 56 mph
Smokey Bear Raws-Near Ruidoso 56 mph
Sacramento Peak 55 mph
Bat Draw Raws-Carlsbad Caverns 55 mph
Artesia Airport 55 mph
8-Mile Draw Raws NE Of Roswell 54 mph
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 53 mph
McKittrick Canyon Raws 53 mph
Woody Farms-11 N Hobbs 53 mph
South Hobbs-DW3455 53 mph
Carlsbad Airport 53 mph
Caprock Raws 52 mph
East Hobbs 53 mph
Holloman AFB-Alamogordo 51 mph
Hobbs Airport 51 mph

Wind Gusts Are Courtesy Of-

NACR
MesoWest Weather
Davis WeatherLink Network
Weather Underground WunderMap
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EXTREMELY CRITICALLY DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
E-SE NM & W TX ON SUNDAY!

Dangerous High Wind/Blowing Dust/Fire Weather Event Sunday!

Special Weather Briefing On Sunday's High Wind Event!

SW Winds 30-45G60 MPH!

W Winds 55-70G110 MPH Sunday!
Widespread Blowing Dust Sunday!

SW-W Winds 35-45G65 MPH!
Widespread Blowing Dust!

High Wind Warning Chaves-Lincoln Co's Sunday!
SW-W Winds 35-50G65 MPH!

(Includes El Paso-Las Cruces-Alamogordo-Cloudcroft-Dell City)
SW-W Winds 35-45G70 MPH Sunday!
W Winds 55G70 MPH East Slopes & Near Mtn's!
Widespread Blowing Dust!

(Southern Sacramento Mtn's)
5" New Snow Above 6,000' MSL
Blowing Snow Limiting Visibilities

Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions!
Avoid Any Type Of Outdoor Activity That
Involves The Use Of Sparks Or Flame!

Extremely Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions!
Avoid Any Type Of Outdoor Activity That
Involves The Use Of Sparks Or Flame!

Large Wind Driven Fires Possible!

A cold and powerful mid-upper level storm was located just of the coast of Oregon early this morning. This late winter storm will drop southeastward today into tonight, and will be located over southwestern Nevada early Saturday morning. To give you an idea of the strength of this storm, consider that the San Francisco Bay area may see its first snowfall since 1976. Snow is also forecast to fall in the Tucson, AZ area tomorrow night into Sunday morning.

Today will be warm and breezy with our afternoon highs approaching 80. SW winds will gust up into the 35-40 mph range. Saturday will be even warmer with highs in the low 80's, along with SW winds gusting up into the 30-40 mph range.

Sunday looks like a brutal day across the area. Very strong winds aloft associated with this powerful late winter storm will mix down to the surface. These winds combined with a very tight surface gradient, and approaching Pacific Cold Front, will all help to produce a Potentially Dangerous High Wind/Blowing Dust/Fire Weather Event across the area.

The Jet Stream is forecast to be located directly overhead on Sunday. Winds at the 250 MB/34,000' MSL are forecast to be around 170 kts/195 mph. Winds at the 500 MB/18,000' MSL are forecast to be around 120 kts/140 mph. Winds at the mountain top level, or 700 MB/10,000' MSL are forecast to be around 70 kts/80 mph. Winds at the 850 MB/5,000' MSL are forecast to be around 50-60 kts/58-70 mph.

As these powerful winds aloft mix down to the surface Sunday morning, southwest-west winds will increase across all of the area. Current National Weather Service forecasts are calling for sustained winds of around 35-55G65 mph! Westerly winds through the Guadalupe Mountains are forecast to be in the 55-70G110 mph range.

Typically a few spots usually exceed the highest forecast wind speeds during these type of extreme high wind events. I think that there is a real possibility that this will be the case across SE NM on Sunday. I believe that we may see some gusts here in the Pecos Valley approaching 80 mph. This will be especially true in the normally more wind prone areas near the foothills and mountains!

These extreme wind gusts will be capable of producing the following types of damage across the area on Sunday. Roof damage, power lines and other types of suspended cables blown down, barns, sheds, and outbuildings damaged or blown down, trees and tree limbs blown down, road signs damaged or blown down, irrigation sprinkler systems damaged or blown away, some west facing windows may be blown out. Some vehicles may be in danger of being blown off local highways, especially on north-south oriented roadways.

A widespread blowing dust event is currently anticipated from Southern New Mexico eastward to West Texas. Blinding dust storms may suddenly drop the visibility down to zero with little to no advanced warning! This will be especially true near open, exposed, or freshly plowed farmland, fields, lots, and roadway construction sites. Some road closures may be possible due to the blowing dust and high winds at the lower elevations, and the snow and blowing dust/blowing snow across the Sacramento Mountains!

The Fire Weather Danger will continue to be especially high across the area today and tomorrow. It simply will be off the scale on Sunday. Any accidental fire that may develop on Sunday will have the potential to rapidly spread and grow in the extremely high winds! Large Wind Driven Fires could impact parts of the area on Sunday!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Potentially Dangerous High Wind/Blowing Dust/Fire Weather Event Sunday!

SW Winds 30-45G60 MPH This Afternoon & Friday!
SW-W Winds 55-75G110 MPH Sunday!

W Winds 35-45G65 MPH!
Wide Spread Areas Of Blowing Dust!

W Winds Sustained 40G70 MPH Sacramento Mtn's Sunday!

Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions Today Into Saturday!
Extremely Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions Sunday!

Mother Nature is going to go on a rampage this weekend as a cold, and very strong upper-level storm sweeps across southern New Mexico on Sunday. This powerhouse of a storm will have incredibly strong mid/upper-level winds associated with it, that will combine with a very tight surface pressure gradient, and an approaching Pacific Cold Front, to produce a Potentially Dangerous High Wind/Blowing Dust/Fire Weather Event across SE NM Sunday.

The latest computer model forecasts indicate that the winds at 850 MB/5,000’ MSL on Sunday, are forecast to be in the neighborhood of 45-55 knots/52-63 mph range. At 700 MB/10,000’ MSL, these winds are forecast to be in the neighborhood of 55-70 knots/63-81 mph range. At 500 MB/18,000’ MSL, these winds are forecast to be in the 110-120 kts/115-140 mph range. At the Jet Stream Level or 250 MB/34,000’ MSL, these winds are forecast to be screaming overhead in the 150+ kt/175+ mph range.

These forecast winds aloft do not reach these types of speeds very often here in SE NM, but when they do, there is always an extreme high wind event associated with them. These very high winds aloft will mix down to the surface on Sunday here in SE NM, as the upper-level storm moves directly overhead, and the Pacific Cold Front moves eastward across the area Sunday afternoon.

These type of winds can and do cause structural damage. Some trees and tree limbs may be blown down, some power lines and other type of cables may be blown down. There may also be some roof damage across the area, and some west facing windows may be blown out. Irrigation sprinklers across the area will be subject to being blown away. Small sheds, barns, and other outbuildings may suffer damage in these high winds.

This afternoon’s forecast discussion from the Midland National Weather Service Office, is calling for southwesterly to westerly winds here on the surface in SE NM, to easily reach sustained speeds of 35-45 mph, with gusts of around 65 mph on Sunday. The forecasters are calling for the southwesterly to westerly winds in the Guadalupe Mountains to be sustained at around 55-75 mph, with gusts in the neighborhood of 110 mph.

Personally, I think that there is a good chance that we could even see these wind gusts in the 65-75 mph gust range, if not higher in a few spots, especially near the foothills and mountains. This event has the potential to be one for the record books.

With these types of winds, and as dry as it is, then we can also expect to see widespread areas of blowing dust. Sudden drops in the visibility down to near zero with little or no advanced warning will be possible across the area. This will be especially true near open, exposed, or freshly plowed farmlands, fields, lots and construction sites. There is the potential for some road closures in the local area due to the extreme winds and blowing dust.

Needless to say that the Fire Danger across the area will be extreme! It is going to continue to be high for the rest of today, tomorrow, and Saturday as well. But Sunday just looks downright scary folks!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Round One Of The Winds Today.

Upper-Level Trough Of Low Pressure Over Arizona
Will Swing Across NM Today. As This Storm Approaches,
Strong SW Winds Will Develop Over The Area.

Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions!
Avoid Any Type Of Outdoor Activity Involving
The Use Of Sparks Or Flame!

Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions!
Avoid Any Type Of Outdoor Activity Involving
The Use Of Sparks Or Flame!

SW Winds 30 - 45G65 MPH!

SW Winds 25 - 35G50 MPH!
High Temps In The Low 70's

W-NW Winds 35G50 MPH!

A Few T-Storms Developed Across Parts Of West Texas
Last Night, Generally From Just East Of Hobbs, Northeastward
To The Lubbock Area. Seminole, In Gaines County, Picked
Up .09" For These Storms.


A Few Strong Tornadoes Within The Moderate Risk Area!


A Strong Late Winter Storm Will Move Eastward Across NM
On Sunday. As This Cold Upper-Level Storm Approaches,
We Can Expect To See A Windy Weekend Across The Area.

Friday Will See SW Winds At Around 20 - 30G40 MPH
With Afternoon Highs In The Upper 70's.

Saturday Will See SW Winds At Around 15 - 25 MPH
With Stronger Gusts In The Afternoon.
Highs Will Be In The Low 80's.

A Potentially Significant High Wind/Blowing Dust
Event Appears Possible On Sunday.
Very Strong Winds Aloft,
(125 - 140 MPH At 18,000' MSL)
(65 - 75 MPH At 10,000' MSL)
Will Combine With A Very Tight Surface Pressure
Gradient, To Produce Very High Winds Over SE NM.

I Think That It Is Possible That We May See SW-W
Winds Gusting Up Into The 65-75 MPH Range
Across The Southeastern Plains On Sunday.

I Also Think That It Is Possible That We Will See
SW-W Winds Gusting In Excess Of 100 MPH
Across The Guadalupe Mountains.

There High Winds Combined With The Very Dry
Conditions Will Also Help To Produce Extremely
Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions Over The Area!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Current Rainfall Deficits Across NM



Most of SE NM Has Received Less Than 10% Of Its Normal
Rainfall Since Oct 1, 2010. Most Reporting Stations Have
Received Less Than A Half Inch Of Rain Since Oct 1, 2010.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Continued Unseasonably Warm & Breezy.



Low-Level Gulf Of Mexico Moisture Will Pool East Of The
Dryline Tonight Across West Texas.

As An Upper-Level Disturbance Approaches From The West,
A Few Scattered T-Storms Will Fire Up Tonight Into Thursday Morning,
Along And East Of The Dryline.


SW Winds Will Increase Across SE NM Today At
Around 20-25G35 MPH. Our High Temps Will Be Near 80.
A Dry Pacific Cold Front Will Sweep Across SE NM Tonight.

Thursday Will Be Warm And Windy With SW Winds
Increasing To 25-30G40 MPH Across SE NM.
Our High Temps Will Range From The Low-Mid 70's.


The Seasons First Significant Severe Outbreak With

A Few Large And Damaging Tornadoes Will Be Possible
In/Near The Moderate Risk Area Depicted Above.


A Stronger Upper-Level Storm Will Sweep Across NM
Late This Upcoming Weekend. Very Strong Winds Aloft
(115-125 MPH At 500 MB/18,000') Will Mix Down To
The Surface, And Help Produce Very Windy Conditions

This Mornings GFS Surface Forecast Map For Noontime
Sunday Depicts A Very Deep Surface Low Over SE
Colorado. It Bottoms Out At 980 Millibars, Or
28.94" Of Mercury. A Very Tight Surface Pressure
Gradient Is Also Forecast Across E/SE NM.
Sustained Winds Of 30-40 Knots/35-45 MPH
Are Forecast For The Area.

A Potential Significant High Wind/Blowing Dust Event
Looks Possible For The Local Area This Weekend.
I Think There Is The Potential To See SW-W
Winds Gusts Of At Least 60-70 MPH Across SE NM,
And 100+ MPH Gusts in The Guadalupe's.
A Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Threat
Also Appears Likely!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Time To Transition From Winter To Spring.


Upper-Level Low Was Located Just Off The Southern California Coast.
There Isn't A Lot Of Mid-Level Subtropical Moisture Associated With It.
The Pacific Ocean Is Cooler Than Normal Due To The Ongoing La Nina,
So There Is Less Available Moisture For These Storms To Work With.


It Shows The Upper Level Storm Digging Southward Just
Off The Southern California Coast. Southwesterly Flow Aloft
Covers The Desert Southwest.


Our Southern California Storm Opens Up Into An Open Trough Of Low Pressure, And Moves Across SE New Mexico As Another Dry-Windy Storm.

Most Of Us Here In SE NM Will See High Temps In The Upper 70's - Low 80's
This Week. Strong SW Winds Will Return Wednesday Afternoon & Thursday.

A Red Flag Warning Is In Effect For The Guadalupe Mtn's Today.
A Fire Weather Watch Has Been Issued For SE NM For Thursday.


The Dryline Becomes Established Across West Texas,
As Low-Level Gulf Of Mexico Moisture Surges Northwestward.

A Dry Pacific Cold Front Approaches NM From AZ In
Association With The Upper Level Storm Approaching

A Few T-Storms May Break Out Across
Parts Of West & Central Texas, Along And East Of The
Dryline Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning. A Few Of
These May Become Severe Wednesday Evening.


There Is A Slight Risk Of Severe T-Storms Within The Green Circle.
The Seasons First Severe Weather Outbreak Will Likely
Occur On Thursday As The Upper-Level Storm Moves
Eastward Across The Southern States.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Current SE NM Rainfall/Snowfall Totals

SE NM CoCoRaHS Rainfall/Snowfall Totals
(Oct 1, 2010 - Feb 21, 2011)

Chaves Co, NM

Eddy Co, NM

Lea Co, NM

Lincoln Co, NM

Otero Co, NM

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Wind Advisory Today!

Warm - Windy - Dusty Today!

Peak Wind Gusts Reported Today-
(Update At 6:30 PM MST)

Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 66 mph
Bowl Raws North of Guadalupe Pk 64 mph
Guadalupe Pass 59 mph
Dunken Raws 55 mph
Pinery Raws 53 mph
High Rolls 50 mph
Queen Raws 46 mph
McKittrick Canyon Raws 46 mph
Mayhill Raws 44 mph
Artesia Airport 44 mph
South Hobbs (DW3455) 44 mph
Sacramento Peak 43 mph
Tatum (CW0386) 43 mph
Paduca Raws 41 mph

Peak Wind Data Courtesy Of-

MesoWest Weather

Once again early this morning low clouds and fog are blanketing parts of SE NM. These will burn off shortly after sunrise this morning. Our overnight low temperatures have been very warm in part due to these low clouds and areas of fog the past couple of mornings. My low temp at my home in Carlsbad yesterday morning was 52, and as of 6 AM this morning 48.

Strong southwesterly winds are already kicking up across the Guadalupe and the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains as of 6 AM this morning. The Bowl Raws which is located just north of Guadalupe Peak, has already recorded a gust to 64 mph. The Sierra Blanca Regional Airport which is located northeast of Ruidoso has recorded a gust to 61 mph. The Pine Springs Raws has recorded a gust to 48 mph, the Dunken Raws 45 mph, High Rolls 45 mph, the Queen Raws 42 mph, the Mayhill Raws 40 mph.

An upper level storm located over Southern California will swing across northern New Mexico today. As it approaches strong downsloping southwesterly winds are forecast to develop over the local area.

A Wind Advisory is in effect until 8 PM tonight for Eddy-Lea-Culberson Counties. SW winds of around 25-35G55 mph can be expected. A few stronger gusts may occur especially near the foothills and mountains.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Sacramento Mountains until this evening. This includes the Cloudcroft and Ruidoso areas. SW winds of around 25-35G50-55 mph can be expected.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains until 11 PM tonight. SW winds of around 30-40G60 mph can be expected.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for SE NM and parts of W TX until 5 PM this afternoon. Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions can be expected. Please avoid any type of outdoor activity that involves the use of sparks or flame today. Any wildland, rangeland, grass, or forest fire that may develop will have the ability to rapidly spread in grow in the high winds and dry conditions.

Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Current Temperatures

Current Wind Chill Temps

NWS Forecast High Temps Today

NWS Forecast Low Temps Tonight

NWS Storm Total Precipitation Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Ice Accumulation Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS MIdland Ice Accumulation Forecast

NWS Midland Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

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