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Current National Weather Service Watches/Warnings In Effect.

New Mexico

Chaves County Plains & Mtn's

Eddy County

Culberson County

Lea County

Lincoln County

Otero County

Roswell Live EarthCam

Ruidoso Live EarthCam

Cloudcroft Live Webcam

Monday, December 30, 2024

Peak Wind Gusts Today - Next Weeks Cold?

December 29, 2024.
Sierra Blanca Peak West Of Ruidoso, NM.

What Is Wrong With This Picture?

Sierra Blanca Peak west of Ruidoso, New Mexico, is almost snow-free, which paints a pretty good picture of how dry, mild, and snowless this winter has been thus far. When will this change? Maybe in about a week or ten days? Just how cold, how much snow falls, and where is still highly questionable.   

Meanwhile, social media has gone nuts with posts about the potential of a major arctic intrusion into the nation in about a week. Some have claimed that this will be the worst arctic outbreak since 1994. Really? The hype around this is insane. What bothers me is how many people are jumping on the bandwagon all claiming or predicting a winter doomsday. Honestly, it's ridiculous, and a lot of those who are doing this know better. There isn't a forecast model out there that is accurate 14 to 16 days out in time. I'm not saying that a significant intrusion of arctic air isn't possible next week and beyond but even the forecast models don't agree exactly where and to what extent the cold will be. 

No doubt a potentially significant pattern change is coming...with trends toward much colder and stormier areas of the country east of the Rockies. This is not abnormal. It is after all the end of December with January fast approaching. But will this Arctic blast be as recording-breaking as many are hyping? Maybe, maybe not. It's way too early to know.  

For New Mexico, especially the eastern one-half of the state this morning's 5 AM MST (12Z/12 GMT) forecast model runs illustrate the uncertainty. Model forecasts a week out or more are not considered to be reliable.  

for example, the Euro forecast model has the arctic air mass nosing into southeastern New Mexico by next Monday (a week away) with temps falling the rest of the week.

The U.S. forecast model (GFS) keeps the coldest arctic air mass well to our east. 

The Canadian forecast model (GEM) delays the intrusion of arctic air into the local area until the middle or end of next week (10 days out at least). But also shows the potential for snow over a good part of the area where as the GFS and ECMWF models don't. 

So no I'm not getting too excited about this. I won't until I see if and when the models come into better agreement in about a week from now. 

Historically the first two weeks of January are generally the coldest of our winter season. But not always. With all-time record coldest daily low temps across southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas all falling below 0F. However, most of our local coldest all-time record lows have occurred in February. 

Thursday, December 26, 2024

It Can't Get Much More Boring Than This.


November 28, 2024.
Foggy In The Mayhill Area.

La NiƱa In Full Control Of Our Winter This Year.

We would be hard pressed to find a more boring, uneventful, relatively calm early start to our New Mexico winter than what we've had for weeks now. Outside of the major winter storm, blizzard, that hammered parts of the state during the first week of November it has been unusually calm weather-wise. Especially here in the southeastern plains and south-central mountains (Sac's). 

This isn't going to change anytime soon it appears. Long-range forecast models are not picking up on any major winter storms headed our way over the next week to ten days. More bad news for the ski industry and the snow pack. 

A passing storm across northern New Mexico this coming weekend into next Monday will produce breezy to windy conditions across parts of the state. Along with abnormally warm temps across the area. Highs on Monday may approach 80F here in the Pecos Valley. 

This pattern already has me worried for the rest of the winter and spring. Unless major pattern changes occur we may be facing a very warm, dry, and windy late winter, and spring this year. Which would only make conditions ripe for dangerous high wind, blowing dust, and fire weather events. 

Monday, December 9, 2024

Strong Cold Front Brings Some Of The Coldest Temps Of The Season.

November 28, 2024.
Cloudcroft Ski Resort. 

(At 3:30 PM MST Monday, December 9, 2024. 


Real-Time Regional Apparent Temperatures (RTMA).
(At 3:30 PM MST Monday, December 9, 2024. 


Valid At 5 PM MST Monday, December 9, 2024. 

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Fast Moving Thanksgiving Storm.


November 2, 2024.
7 Miles West Of Eunice, NM.
Large Rotating Wall Cloud With A Beavers Tail.

Quick Hitting Storm For Thanksgiving.

My cover photo was taken 7 miles west of Eunice in Lea County on November 2, 2024. Looking west along St Hwy 176 at a rotating large bell-shaped wall cloud with a beaver's tail. A couple of brief tornadoes formed on the southern end of the wall cloud.  

Here is a quick update since Mother Nature has decided to change her mind somewhat concerning our Thanksgiving storm. A rather fast-moving storm will produce up to an additional 5" of new snowfall over the Tusas mountains, including the Chama area today.

Strong westerly winds will continue to rake the central mountain chain and nearby eastern slopes today. Westerly winds sustained to 30 - 35 mph with gusts to 50-55 mph are forecast. 

Westerly winds sustained at 30 - 40 mph with gusts near 65 mph are forecast for the Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy and Culberson Counties.

High temps today will be in the 40's and 50's across the northern one-half of the state. The southern half of the state will see the 60's and 70's. The southeastern plains will be in the upper 70's to near 80 with westerly winds gusting up to around 40 mph. 

 A cold front is currently sliding southward through the state and by sunrise Thanksgiving morning a colder airmass will be settling in over the area. High temps statewide will average close to a little below normal Thanksgiving Day into the holiday weekend. A warming trend will commence next week. 

As the front settles southward tonight areas of light snow, freezing fog, and freezing drizzle are forecast to develop over parts of western, northern, northeastern, and eastern New Mexico. As well as across parts of eastern and the northern sections of southeastern New Mexico. 1" to 2" of snow will be possible over the central mountain chain with less than an inch expected across the lower elevations. 

The Cloudcroft, Ruidoso, Roswell, Artesia, and Tatum areas may see light snow flurries or even a little bit of light snow but overall nothing significant is currently forecast for these areas. 

Have a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving and holiday weekend everyone!

Monday, November 25, 2024

Thanksgiving Week Forecast.


November 2, 2024.
Shelf Cloud NE Of Carlsbad, NM.

Blog Updated At 2:22 PM MST Monday, Nov 25, 2024. 

Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024.


My cover photo was taken 20 miles northeast of Carlsbad on the Hobbs Hwy (US 62/180) on November 2nd, 2024. A nice shelf cloud formed after this severe thunderstorm became outflow dominant.
A cold front will keep the eastern half of the state slightly cooler than normal today. A quick warmup will occur Tuesday and Wednesday as strong dry downsloping winds kick in along the northern and central mountains and the northeast highlands with gusts in the 50-60 mph range.
It will also be windy across southern and southeastern New Mexico especially on Wednesday with westerly gusts in the 40-50 mph range expected. Highs across southeastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon will be som 15-20 degrees above normal with readings near 80.
These winds will likely be strong in the Guadalupe mountains on Wednesday...approaching the High Wind Warning category.
Another backdoor cold front arrives just in time for Thanksgiving. Highs across the eastern half of the state on Thanksgiving will range in the 40's in western and northern New Mexico. Near 40 in the northeastern plains, the mid 40's in eastern New Mexico, and 50-55 in southeastern New Mexico.
Light to moderate snow is forecast across parts of western, northern, and northeastern New Mexico Tuesday into Wednesday. The heaviest snows will fall over the northern mountains near Chama and Red River where 8" to 12" of new snow is possible.
Be sure and open the link to my blog post below in order to view the attached forecast maps and graphics. Have a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving everyone!

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

NM Storm Summary November 19, 2024.

October 11, 2024
 Alamo Peak South Of Cloudcroft, NM. 
Valid At 5 AM MST Monday, Nov 18, 2024. 



5-Day NOHRSC Snowfall Totals. 
Valid At 5 AM MST Monday, Nov 18, 2024. 



72-Hour Precipitation & Snowfall Totals.

Sunday, November 17, 2024

Quick Hitting Winter Storm Today Into Monday Morning!

October 19, 2024.
Large Rotating Wall Cloud.
About 12 Miles North Of Dunken, NM.
16 Miles NW of Me Near The Eddy/Chaves Co Line. 

A supercell thunderstorm developed fairly rapidly along the east slopes of the Sacramento mountains north of Dunken, in southwestern Chaves County on the afternoon of Saturday, Oct 19th, 2024. I chased this storm northward along St Hwy 13 all the way to Roswell. It never did produce a tornado as far as I could see but the wall cloud was very photogenic and cycled several times. 

A line of intense thunderstorms developed in this after that evening and very slowly edged northeastward. Multiple training thunderstorms within this line of thunderstorms later produced the historic excess rainfall and the devastating flash flooding in Roswell. Measured rainfall totals in the city generally averaged 4" to 6". Several locations exceed 7" and a couple of reporting Personal Weather Stations (PWS) reported 8" to 10.86". 

Quick Hitting Winter Storm Today Into Monday!
Moderate To Heavy Lowland Rains & Heavy Mtn Snows in Southern NM.

Thursday, November 14, 2024

Saturday, Nov 2nd, 2024 Eddy County Hailstorm - Our Next Winter Storm Arrives This Weekend.








November 2, 2024.
1 Mile NW Of Seven Rivers, NM.
Hail, Hail Drifts, And Hail Fog On White Pine Rd.

A severe thunderstorm (rare for November) dropped golf ball to tennis ball size hail in the Seven Rivers and Lakewood areas on Saturday, November 2, 2024. I took my photos nearly an hour after the storm had ended. Even so, I still picked up numerous golf ball to hen egg size hailstones in the area. My brother measured 1.30" of rain along with hen egg-sized hail at his ranch 2 miles north of Lakewood. 

Thursday, November 7, 2024

Blizzard Warnings For NE New Mexico!

At 11:21 AM MST.

At 10 AM MST on Thursday, Nov 7, 2024.


Major Widespread Winter Storm Underway!

Valid Today Through 5 AM MST Sunday.

As Of 5:30 AM MST Thursday Morning.






As Of 6:30 AM MST Thursday.


Major Widespread Winter Storm Underway.

Road closures, downed Power lines, and a heavy wet snow are already causing problems across the northern one-half of New Mexico early this Thursday morning (7 AM MST). Early snowfall reports this morning indicate that 12.0" has fallen in Las Vegas, 12.0 " 10.1 SSE of Tijeras, 10.0" 1 mile SSW of Moriarty, and 9.1" in Cedar Crest. With much more to come.  


Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Widespread Very Heavy Snowfall From Seasons First Major Winter Storm!

October 11, 2024.
Alamo Peak, South Of Cloudcroft, NM.





Winter Storm Severity Index.




Winter Storm Severity Index.


Updated Forecasts Winter Storm Warnings/Advisories!

A major widespread winter storm is forecast to impact much of New Mexico this afternoon into Friday. Significant travel disruptions, power outages, very heavy snowfall, and blowing and drifting snow with near-blizzard conditions along with near-zero visibility at times, are forecast for parts of the northern half of the state. This storm has to potential to produce life-threatening conditions in the warning areas. Widespread road closures will be possible in these areas. Travel on some roads and highways will become impossible. This will be a three-day long duration event. 

The Albuquerque National Weather Service Office has increased their storm total snowfall amounts across the northern half of the state. Some communities will measure their snowfall totals in feet rather than inches. 

Livestock, range animals, domestic pets, and other animals will be at risk from the heavy snow and cold. Protect them now as much as possible. 

As I mentioned in yesterday's blog post the key to who gets the greatest snowfall amounts and where will be highly dependent upon the storm's track and speed. If it pulls a little further to the north and faster than currently forecast then snowfall totals would be less in some areas. If it slows down and digs further south than currently forecast then snowfall totals would be heavier in some areas.

This is a dangerous winter storm with significant impacts to much of the state expected so please head all National Weather Service Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories. 

Area Road Conditions.
  1. NM Roads  - (800-432-4269)
  2. Drive Texas  -  (800-452-9292)
  3. Texas Roads  - (800-452-9292)
  4. Arizona Roads  - (888-411-7623)
  5. Nationwide Roads  - (511)
  6. NM Rds Mobile App

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Buckle Up The Seasons First Major Winter Storm!

Sunset.
November 2, 2024.
Eunice, New Mexico.


Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday.

Major Impacts Across New Mexico Expected
 From Seasons First Widespread Major Winter Storm!

Our departing winter storm that dropped heavy snow across the northern mountains of New Mexico as of yesterday afternoon was somewhat of a dissapointment snow-wise in the Sacramento mountains. And rainfall-wise across parts of the southeastern plains.

But our next inbound major widespread winter storm should make up for it at least as far as snowfall is concerned in the Sacramento and Capitan mountains.

Friday, November 1, 2024

Unusual For November - Severe T-Storms/Heavy Rains/Flash Flooding!

October 11, 2024.
Alamo Peak South Of Cloudcroft, NM.

Severe t-storms, heavy rainfall, and a flash flood threat tonight through Saturday across the southeastern plains. The Sacramento mountains will see snow developing Sunday into Monday. Another round of winter weather for the state late next week. 

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Summer Has Finally Given Up - Here Comes Fall.

October 11, 20224.
Cloudcroft, New Mexico.


 Don't forget to fall back, or set your clocks back, an hour this Sunday morning at 2 AM. 

 Summer Has Finally Given Up - Here Comes Fall. 

Current US Temps

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NWS El Paso Official Snowfall Forecast

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What's Going On - Waking Up To The Truth!