Heading West On Us Hwy 70.
20 Miles West Of Roswell, New Mexico.
Smoke From The South Fork & Salt Fires In/Near Ruidoso, New Mexico.
Updated at 11:26 AM MDT, Wednesday, June 19, 2024.
My Substack Post -
Valid At Noon MDT Wednesday.
(12:21 PM MDT Tuesday, June 18, 2024).
Tropical Storm Forming.
A disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is forecast to strengthen and develop into a Tropical Storm within 24-hours. Then move generally to the northwest before moving more westward into Mexico south of, or near Brownsville, Texas Wednesday night into Thursday..
The remnant moisture from this Tropical Storm is forecast to get pulled northwestward into West Texas and New Mexico late this week into the weekend.
Cold Front Sags South Into The State.
A backdoor cold will slide southward and westward into the eastern plains tonight into Wednesday, and the southeastern plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Low level easterly to southeasterly upslope from the Gulf of Mexico will increase surface moisture across much of the state tonight into Thursday. Tropical moisture will increase across the southern one half of the state Thursday into the weekend.
Increasing Chances For T-Storms/Some Severe & Local Flash Flooding.
As tropical moisture increases across the southern one of the state Thursday onward our chances for significant rainfall will also increase. I'm taking a very conservative approach at this time on how much rain will fall and where. Forecast models haven't honed in on total rainfall amounts yet and thus they may change over the next couple of days. Given that this is a tropical system that will be the main driver of our heavy rainfall they tend to underestimate some storms. So it is entirely possible that heavy rain totals may fall in some locations than are currently indicated. Be on the alert for changing local forecasts and stay up to date via your favorite local weather source.
Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall totals may range from .50" to 2.00" over many areas of southeastern New Mexico, parts of southern New Mexico, and the Sacramento mountains. Some areas of the central mountain chain, the northern mountains, and northeastern plains may see up to 1" to 3" of rain by the weekend.
A few severe t-storms are possible this afternoon and evening and again on Wednesday for northeastern and eastern New Mexico. Maybe parts of southeastern New Mexico on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Flash Flooding A Huge Concern In Ruidoso!
With lots of tropical moisture headed our way there is great concern in the Ruidoso area for flash flooding in the burn scar areas. And across other burn scar areas of the state but not limited just to those areas. Anyone that gets t-storms and or heavy rain, especially with repeat or training storms over the same locations or areas, will have to be on the lookout for this possibility Wednesday into the weekend.
I know everyone wants rain badly including me but I am worried about the flash flood potential in the Ruidoso and nearby areas. Heavy or very heavy rains would have the potential to cause life threatening and devastating flash flooding. Especially in and around the burn scar areas. Flash Flood Watches/Warnings may be issued for parts of the state by our local National Weather Service Offices.
Much Cooler Thursday & Friday!
With the increase in clouds, humidity, t-storms and rain, it will be much cooler on Thursday with highs across the southeastern plains likely not making it out of the 70's. The low to mid 90's are forecast for Wednesday and near 80 on Friday. A much welcome change for sure. Ii topped out at 109F here at our home in Carlsbad on Monday...my highest so far this summer.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
