Sierra Blanca Peak West Of Ruidoso, NM.
What Is Wrong With This Picture?
Sierra Blanca Peak west of Ruidoso, New Mexico, is almost snow-free, which paints a pretty good picture of how dry, mild, and snowless this winter has been thus far. When will this change? Maybe in about a week or ten days? Just how cold, how much snow falls, and where is still highly questionable.
Meanwhile, social media has gone nuts with posts about the potential of a major arctic intrusion into the nation in about a week. Some have claimed that this will be the worst arctic outbreak since 1994. Really? The hype around this is insane. What bothers me is how many people are jumping on the bandwagon all claiming or predicting a winter doomsday. Honestly, it's ridiculous, and a lot of those who are doing this know better. There isn't a forecast model out there that is accurate 14 to 16 days out in time. I'm not saying that a significant intrusion of arctic air isn't possible next week and beyond but even the forecast models don't agree exactly where and to what extent the cold will be.
No doubt a potentially significant pattern change is coming...with trends toward much colder and stormier areas of the country east of the Rockies. This is not abnormal. It is after all the end of December with January fast approaching. But will this Arctic blast be as recording-breaking as many are hyping? Maybe, maybe not. It's way too early to know.
For New Mexico, especially the eastern one-half of the state this morning's 5 AM MST (12Z/12 GMT) forecast model runs illustrate the uncertainty. Model forecasts a week out or more are not considered to be reliable.
for example, the Euro forecast model has the arctic air mass nosing into southeastern New Mexico by next Monday (a week away) with temps falling the rest of the week.
The U.S. forecast model (GFS) keeps the coldest arctic air mass well to our east.
The Canadian forecast model (GEM) delays the intrusion of arctic air into the local area until the middle or end of next week (10 days out at least). But also shows the potential for snow over a good part of the area where as the GFS and ECMWF models don't.
So no I'm not getting too excited about this. I won't until I see if and when the models come into better agreement in about a week from now.
Historically the first two weeks of January are generally the coldest of our winter season. But not always. With all-time record coldest daily low temps across southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas all falling below 0F. However, most of our local coldest all-time record lows have occurred in February.
(Most Gusts Were Recorded Early This Morning).
Carlsbad Caverns National Park - West Texas Mesonet Station 64 mph.
Bowl Raws - Guadalupe Mtn's National Park 1/2 Mile North Of Guadalupe Peak 61 mph.
Salinas Peak - White Sands Missile Range 60 mph.
Pine Springs - Guadalupe Mtn's West Texas Mesonet Station 59 mph.
San Augustine Pass Raws East Of Las Cruces 57 mph.
SE Of Vaughn NMCC 55 mph.
3 Cross Ranch PWS North Of Dunken 55 mph.
White Sands Missile Range Main Post 52 mph.
66 Ranch PWS Northwest Of Roswell 51 mph.
Carlsbad Caverns National Park - Bat Draw Raws 50 mph.
Tatum PWS 49 mph.
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport AWOS Northeast Of Ruidoso 47 mph.
Hobbs - West Texas Mesonet 47 mph.
Carlsbad Airport ASOS 47 mph.
Ruidoso - Smokey Bear Raws 45 mph.
Orla, Texas - West Texas Mesonet 43 mph.
Hobbs Airport AWOS 41 mph.
Lovington Golf Course NMCC 40 mph.
8-Mile Draw Raws Northeast Of Roswell 40 mph.
Queen Raws 40 mph.
Mayhill - Lincoln Portable Raws #2 39 mph.
2.1 Miles NNW Of Carlsbad - My Davis Station 36 mph.
Dunken Raws 36 mph.
Dexter NMCC 35 mph.
Loving High School NMCC 32 mph.
Artesia Airport AWOS 26 mph.
All-Time Lowest Temperature Records.
European (ECMWF) Model.
U.S. GFS Model.
Canadian (GEM) Model.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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