Another Storm Inbound.

October 23, 2022.

Seven Rivers, NM.

Quick Hitting Storm Today Into Friday.

ECMWF 500 MB (18,000') Forecasts.

Valid At Midnight Wednesday Night.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Thursday Evening.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Friday Morning.

We have had a pretty active fall weather pattern over the past few weeks and this trend will continue. Our latest storm to impact New Mexico and nearby areas was centered over northern Utah at midnight last night. This storm will dive southeastward fairly rapidly today. By sunset it is forecast to be a closed mid-upper level low centered near Albuquerque. By sunrise Friday morning it is forecast to be centered near Andrews in West Texas.

Surface Map Analysis & Forecast.

Valid At 3 AM MDT Thursday Morning.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Thursday Evening.

ECMWF Surface Map Forecast.

Valid At Midnight Tonight.

As the mid level storm dives towards the state today a fast moving surface cold front will sweep across the state. By sunset it will have moved south into far West Texas and the northwest Permian Basin.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures.

Today.

  Friday.

Saturday.

Sunday.

Today's high temps across Southeastern New Mexico will be a little above seasonal normals with the mid 70's. Behind the cold front on Friday we will see the upper 50's to the low 60's. Saturday will be a little warmer with highs in the upper 60's and near 70 for Sunday.

In the Ruidoso area you can expect to see high temps today in the low 50's, near 50 on Friday, and the mid-upper 50's on Saturday and Sunday.

The Cloudcroft area will see the low to mid 40's today and Friday, the mid 40's on Saturday, and the upper 40's on Sunday.

NWS NDFD Forecast Peak Wind Gusts.

Valid Today Through Friday.

Strong westerly winds sustained at around 25-35 mph with gusts near 50 are expected across Eddy County today where a Wind Advisory will be in effect from noon until 11 PM. Westerly winds sustained at around 20-30 mph with gusts near 40-45 mph are forecast for the rest of Southeastern New Mexico.

A Wind Advisory is also in effect for the southern Sacramento mountains and the Dell City, Cornudas, Salt Flats, and Crow Flats areas from 9 AM through 11 PM. West winds sustained at around 25-35 mph will gust up to around 55 mph.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe mountains until 11 PM MDT for west winds sustained at around 35-45 mph with gusts near 65 mph.

Localized areas of blowing dust will be possible this afternoon and evening with the stronger winds and gusts. Particularly over and near freshly plowed farm lands, fields, open or exposed lots, and construction sites.

ECMWF Storm Total Precipitation Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Friday.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Precipitation Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Friday Morning.

Widely scattered to scattered rain showers will develop across the local area this afternoon and continue into early Friday morning before ending. For the most part local totals should be around a quarter of an inch or less. A few sots may pick up as much as a half of an inch.

ECMWF Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Interestingly enough the European model has been rather consistent with it's snowfall forecast the past few runs. The other models aren't picking up on the idea of snow tonight over parts of Chaves and Lea Counties tonight. This model forecasts snow developing in these areas around 9 PM tonight and ending by Friday morning. Not sure if I buy this or not but the Euro is usually pretty reliable. 

NWS NDFD SF Forecast.

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Friday Morning.

Scattered rain showers are forecast to change over to snow showers across the Sacramento mountains late this afternoon and evening. The higher elevations around Sunspot and Cloudcroft may pick an inch or two of snow. Ski Apache may see 2"-3". The Ruidoso area is currently expecting (as of 8 AM MDT) to only see a half of an inch or less. This storm is going to be fairly moisture starved thus the reason for the light accumulations. However it's possible that the highest elevations of the Sac's may end up getting more snow than currently forecast.

Severe T-Storm Across West Texas Tonight..

Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook.

NWS Midland Severe Weather Outlook Today.

Late this afternoon into this evening scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across West Texas. Some of these may become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall. Current forecasts indicate that most of this activity will develop along or east of a Lubbock to Midland line around sunset or afterwards.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Storm Summary - Oct 25, 2022.

October 23, 2022.

Armstrong Rd South Of Hope, NM.

NWS MesoWest 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

CoCoRaHS 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

Local 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

Cloudcroft NWS Climate Co-Op Station .92"

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 2.3 Miles S .92".

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 1.8 Miles SW .87".

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 0.4 Miles ESE .55".

Capitan CoCoRaHS Station 4.3 Miles WSW .35".

Mayhill CoCoRaHS Station 2.8 Miles WNW .24".

Artesia NWS Climate Co-Op Station .17".

Atoka 4 Miles S of Artesia .16".

CoCoRaHS 24-Hour Snowfall Totals.

New Mexico 24-Hour Snowfall.

(As Of 6 AM MDT Tuesday).

New Mexico 24-Hour Snowfall.

(As Of 6 AM MDT Tuesday).

Local Snowfall Totals.

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 1.8 Miles SW 5.7".

Cloudcroft NWS Climate Co-Op Station 4.5".

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 2.3 Miles S 4.5".

Nogal CoCoRaHS Station 4.6 SSE 4.0".

Sunspot CoCoRaHS Station 0.2 Miles SSW 3.1".

NWS MesoWest Peak Wind Gusts.

Sunday.

Monday.

Local Peak Wind Gusts.

(Sunday & Monday).

Guadalupe Pass 73 MPH.

Sierra Blanca Regional Airport NE of Ruidoso 69 MPH.

Pine Springs Raws 67 MPH.

Bowl Raws North of Guadalupe Pass 67 MPH.

Dunken Raws 57 MPH.

High Rolls - Hanynes Canyon PWS 57 MPH.

Roswell Industrial Air Center Airport ASOS 54 MPH.

Terlingua Tower PWS SE of Loco Hills 53 MPH.

Artesia Municipal Airport AWOS 51 MPH.

Carlsbad Airport ASOS 49 MPH.
Queen Raws 45 MPH.

NM MesoWest/NWS/PWS Reported Low Temperatures.

(Tuesday Morning).

Cloudcroft NWS Climate Co-Op Station 19ºF (Coldest of the season so far).

Pierce Canyon PWS SE of Cloudcroft 21ºF.

Sierra Blanca Snotel NW of Ruidoso 21ºF.

Aspen Grove PWS SW of Ruidoso 23ºF.
Grindstone Lake PWS SW of Ruidoso 24ºF.
Smokey Bear Raws - NW of Ruidoso 27ºF.

Dunken Raws 30ºF.

Sierra Blanca Regional Airport AWOS 30ºF.
Artesia Climate Co-Op Station 30ºF (First Official Freeze).

Our Home Imn NW Carlsbad 33ºF.
Roswell Industrial Air Center ASOS 33ºF.

Carlsbad Airport ASOS 33ºF.

Queen Raws 37ºF.

Guadalupe Pass ASOS 37ºF.
Artesia Municipal Airport AWOS 39ºF.
Hobbs Municipal Airport AWOS 39ºF.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Windy Today With Rain & Snow Overspreading Parts Of The State.

October 15, 2022.

Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Surface Map Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Monday.

ECMWF 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday.

A strong mid-upper level storm centered over central Nevada early this morning is forecast to close off and drop southeast today into Monday. By Monday afternoon the center of the storm should be located over Eastern New Mexcio.

At the surface a Pacific cold front located over the Great Basin this morning will dive southeast reaching the Four Corners late this afternoon. The front will continue moving southeastward tonight and is forecast to arrive in Southeastern New Mexic before sunrise Monday morning.

Behind the front and the mid-upper level closed low a colder airmass will overspread the region today into Tuesday. 

Many of the valley and lower elevations of the state particuarly over northern, centeral, and eastern New Mexico will see their first freeze of the seaon Tuesday morning. Roswell, Tatum, and the lower valley locations of the Southeastern Plains may also see their first freeze. This would include the Bittler Lakes Wildlife Refuge, maybe the Artesia area, Lakewood/Seven Rivers, and Loving/Malaga. 

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures.

Today.

Monday.

Tuesday.

NWS NDFD Forecast Low Tempertures.

Tuesday Morning.

NBM Storm Total Precipitation Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday.

NBM Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday.

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid 6 AM MDT Sunday - 6 PM MDT Monday.

NWS El Paso Storm Total Snowfall Foreecast.

Valid Sunday Night - Monday.

Widely scattered to scattered rain and snow showers will continue to develop and overspread parts of New Mexico today. A few isolated thunderstorms are also possible. Increasing tonight into Monday. Snow levels today will start out around 9,500' or so today dropping down to around 7,500' late tonight into Monday in the colder airmass behind the cold front. 

Rainfall totals generally should be a quarter of an inch less across the lowlands and plains. Across the higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains and a few of higher peaks of the northern mountains rainfall totals may approach the half of an inch to one inch range.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for parts of the northern Sangre de Cristo mountains and the Tusas mountains from this morning through Monday night. Chama should see 1"-2" with 2"-6" at the higher elevations and locally 9" above 10,000'. Blowing and drifting snow will be possible also.

Snowfall totals in the Ruidoso, Alto, Capitan, and Mescalero areas are currently forecast to be an inch or less. Ski Apache may see upwards of 7" of snow.

Snowfall totals in the Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Silver Lake areas are forecast to be in the 1"-2" range especially above 9,000'. Locally higher totals are possible at the higher elevations.

Snowfall totals in the Mayhill, Sacramento/Weed, Timberon, Mountain Park/High Rolls areas are forecast to less than an inch below 7,000' and around an inch above 7.500'-8,000'.

Windy Today.

NWS Current Watch/Warning Map.

NWS NDFD Peak Wind Gust Forecast Map.

Valid Today - 6 PM MDT Tuesday.

NWS Albuquerque Peak Wind Gusts Forecast.

Valid Today.

NWS El Paso Peak Wind Gusts Forecast.

Valid Today.

NWS Midland Peak Wind Gusts Forecast.

Valid Today - Monday Evening.

Our first widespread strong/high wind event of the fall season will occur today into Monday evening. High Wind Warnings are in effect for northeatern New Mexico, the Sacramento mountains, and parts of the Western mountains of the state. Southwesterly to westerly winds are forecast to gust up to around to 55-65 mph in these areas today. This includes the Ruidoso and Cloudcroft areas. At the lower elecations these winds are forecast to gust up to around 50-60 mph where Wind Advisories cover much of New Mexico.

Across the Guadalupe mountains a High Wind Warning is in effect today through Monday evening. Southwesterly winds sustained at around 35-45 mph will gust up to around 65-70 mph today into tonight. Shifting around to the west at sustained speeds of 40-50 mph with gusts near 75 mph on Monday.

Across the Southeastern Plains we will see southwesterly winds increase to sustained speeds of 20-30 mph today with gusts near 40-45 mph.

Localized areas of blowing dust will occur with the higher wind gusts today into Monday arcross the area. This will be espeically true in the drier areas and near exposed or open farmlands, fields, lots, and construction sites.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Strong Fall Storm This Weekend Into Early Next Week.

October 1, 2022.

Cloudcroft, New Mexico.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

(Valid At 6 PM MDT Saturday).

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

(Valid At 6 AM MDT Sunday.)

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

(Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday).

GFS 200 MB (39,000') Jet Stream Forecast.

(Valid At Noon MDT Sunday).

Surface Map Forecast.

(Valid Monday).

Strong Fall Storm This Weekend Into Early Next Week.

Major changes in the upper air pattern over the Western U.S. will be reflected by a strong fall storm that will affect New Mexico's weather Saturday into Tuesday. A deep mid-level storm will develop over the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. This deep and cold closed mid-level low will then swing east into the Great Basin by Sunday. Then drop southeast into Southeastern New Mexico Monday afternoon.The subtropical jet stream will phase or merge with the polar jet stream over New Mexico Saturday night into Sunday.

For the first time this fall season a strong Pacific cold front will sweep across New Mexico from northwest to southeast on Monday. Bringing much colder temperatures to the state Monday into Wednesday. In fact the seasons first frost/freeze is likely to occur in some of the lower valley locations of the state including central and southern New Mexico. I think that this may also occur over parts of eastern and southeastern New Mexico by next Tuesday/Wednesday.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Tempertures.

Saturday.

Sunday.

Monday.

NWS NDFD Forecast Low Tempertures Tuesday Morning.

I have a feeling that the forecast models are too warm with their temperatures behind the cold frontal passage Monday into Wednesday. So I expect to see some possible adjustments in their forecasts downward over the next couple of days.

NWS NDFD Precipatition Forecasts.

Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.

(Valid By 6 AM MDT Monday Morning).

Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

(Valid Sunday - Monday).

I also think that the forecast models are too dry with their precipitation forecasts with this storm. This will be more true if the closed mid-level storm sinks futher south than what they are forecasting.

Snow is forecast to fall over the western, northern, and central mountains of the state Sunday into Monday. The highest totals currently being forecast will occur over the northern mountains where some locations will see 4"-6". While the western mountains will see 1"-2". I expect these forecasts to possibly change so I'll keep you updated on those changes should they happen. 

Rain showers will change over to snow in the higher elecations of the Sacramento mountains Sunday night and continuing into Monday night. Snow levels at this time look like they will only drop down to around 7,500' to 8,000'. 

Last but hardly least of all will be our first wind event of the fall. Strong southwesterly winds are forecast to develop statewide on Saturday and increase further on Sunday. Local gusts across southern and southeastern New Mexico will be in the 30 mph range on Saturday.

Sunday will see gusts in the 40 mph range. Across the Sacramento mountains gusts on Sunday will be in the 50-60 mph range. Ski Apache may see gusts to around 65 mph. Guadalupe Pass will see southwesterly wind gusts near 50 mph on Sunday. 

With a jet stream speed max (between 34,000' to 39,000') over northeastern New Mexico on Sunday potentially damaging southwesterly winds at the surface are forecast to gust up into the 50-60 mph range. A Wind Advisory will be in effect for parts of northern New Mexico on Sunday.

Localized areas of blowing dust will be possible across the lower valleys of the state on Sunday especially in those areas where it has been drier recently. 

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.