Cat 4 Ida Makes Landfall Near Port Fourchon, Louisiana.



Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR 
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ida made 
landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port 
Fourchon around 1155 AM CDT (1655 UTC).  Data from an Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that 
Ida's maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 150 
mph (240 km/h).  The latest minimum central pressure estimated from 
reconnaissance aircraft data is 930 mb (27.46 in).

Within the past hour, sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a 
gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) were reported at Lakefront Airport in New 
Orleans. 

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana, 
recently reported a water level of 6.4 feet above mean higher high 
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. 

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, 
Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.5 feet above mean 
higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that 
area. 


SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 90.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

 

 
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Cat 4 Hurricane Ida 40 Miles South Of Grand Isle, Louisiana.



A local TV Station in New Orleans (Fox 8) is reporting an unofficial wind gust of 166 mph from an automated station offshore south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. This has not been confirmed as of 8:35 AM MDT this Sunday morning. 

Sadly local media sources are reporting that many people in the New Orleans area and surrounding communities refused to evacuate. Many are praying that we are not fixing to see another Katrina or worse. 
Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
900 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... 
...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN 
LOUISIANA...

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, 
recently reported a sustained wind of 102 mph (165 km/h) and a wind 
gust of 116 mph (187 km/h). Another elevated NOAA C-MAN station at 
Pilot's Station East near Southwest Pass recently reported a 
sustained wind of 97 mph (156 km/h) and a gust to 121 mph (194 
km/h). 

A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site at Pilottown, 
Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) 
and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). 


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 89.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown
 

 
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Hurricane Ida Headed For Louisiana?

12:31 PM MDT Friday, August 27, 2021.

12:31 PM MDT Friday, August 27, 2021.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA MAKES LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ON THE ISLE OF YOUTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 82.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF THE CENTER OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 145 MI...245 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

NHC Forecast Track.


9 AM MDT Advisory.


Computer Model Ensemble Forecasts.









Hurricane Ida strengthened from a Tropical Depression yesterday to a Category 1 Hurricane this morning. This morning's model forecast tracks indicate that she will slam into southern Louisiana between Sunday night and Monday morning. As with most hurricanes, predicting the exact location of her eventual landfall is still in doubt this far out in time. 

Computer Model Forecast Strength Near Landfall.



HMON Forecast.


This morning's computer model forecast runs of the HWRF and HMON models indicate that Ida will be a Major Hurricane (Cat 3-4) just before landfall sometime Sunday evening into Monday morning. This may change before actual landfall. There is a lot of talk in the weather world of Ida making landfall even stronger. 

ECMWF Wave Height Forecast.


Hurricane Ida has the potential to generate wave heights just offshore of southern Lousiana upwards of 73 feet before making landfall. This is according to this morning's ECMWF model forecast. If she comes ashore stronger than currently forecast these waves could be even higher.

Computer Model Rainfall Forecasts.




Hurricane Ida has the potential to cause Lousiana a lot of heartache and problems. The area between Morgan City and New Orleans looks to be ground zero for landfall at this time. Although this will likely change somewhat so keep abreast of all National Weather Service forecasts, updates, watches, and warnings. 

Local Products for Ida


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U.S. Watch/Warning   Local Products  

Local Statements are prepared by National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) giving specific details for their County Warning Area (CWA) on weather conditions, evacuation decisions made by local officials, and other precautions necessary to protect life and property.

On this page are links to the Local Statements that have been released within the last 8 hours, as well as links to the homepages of the issuing Weather Forecast Offices.

Issuing WFO Homepage

Local ImpactsLocal Statement



New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LAThreats and Impacts412 PM CDT Fri Aug 27
Shreveport, LAThreats and Impacts413 PM CDT Fri Aug 27
Jackson, MSThreats and Impacts425 PM CDT Fri Aug 27
Lake Charles, LAThreats and Impacts427 PM CDT Fri Aug 27
Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FLThreats and Impacts445 PM CDT Fri Aug 27

These statements also available at weather.gov.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Hurricane Threat In The Gulf Of Mexico Early Next Week?

August 14, 2021.
Rio Penasco River.
Flash Flooding At Mile Marker #51.

August 14, 2021.
Rio Penasco River.
Flash Flooding At Mile Marker #51.

This area is normally dry and is not the main channel of the river. The river runs up against the hill in the background and is usually only a foot or so deep, and less than 10 feet wide. The Penasco had overflowed its banks and flooded the pasture area in the photo. At one point earlier in the morning it had overflowed up on US Hwy 82 for a brief time.



An area of disturbed weather is indicated on the map above by the orange x circled in red. This denotes the location of thunderstorms that will likely become a Tropical Storm in the Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday or Monday. Wind shear in the open Gulf is forecast to be low and very warm water temperatures will aid in the development of a Hurricane next week.


Valid At 2 PM MDT Wednesday, August 25, 2021.




GEFS.


ATCF


CMC.


GFS Strenght/Rainfall Forecast.



A large degree of uncertainty exists concerning the track and strength of next week's potential Tropical Storm or Hurricane. The ensemble forecasts from today's model runs point this out.

This mornings run of the US GFS model forecasts a strong hurricane making landfall near Cameron, Louisana by next Tuesday morning. Take this with a huge grain of salt since the storm hasn't even formed yet and much can, and will likely change between now and the first of next week. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Regional Year-To-Date Rainfall Totals.

August 14, 2021.
Runyan Ranches Mile Marker #56.
Flash Flooding On The Rio Penasco.

Reported Year-To-Date Rainfall Totals.








This is a limited summary of the region's yearly rainfall totals (January 1st - August 18, 2021). Some of these totals may not represent the latest up-to-date data available. A CoCoRaHS volunteer rainfall observer located 2.8 miles west-northwest of Mayhill (Otero County) leads the state with a rainfall total so far of 26.32".

Here on the Southeastern plains, the Hope NWS Climate Co-Op Station is the wettest so far this year with 23.59". 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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