Late Summer T-Storms Will Produce Widespread Rains Again!

Carlsbad, NM.

Blog Updated At 5:05 AM MDT Thursday, August 12, 2021.

Model Forecast Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.

Valid Wednesday - 6 PM MDT Saturday.

Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

Valid Wednesday - 6 PM MDT Sunday.

Weather Underground Rainfall Reports Wednesday.
(As Of 4:45 PM MDT Wednesday).

Once again a crop of scattered afternoon thunderstorms dropped decent amounts of rain over the Sacramento mountains. July and August are the wettest months of the year in the mountains. Cloudcroft averages 5.38" of rainfall in August (1901 - 2020). Ruidoso averages 4.77" (1941 -2020).

Weak northerly to northwesterly flow aloft will help steer erratic moving thunderstorms generally southward the next couple of days. Slow-moving thunderstorms can and often do dump heavy rains which can produce localized flash flooding. 

A slow southward moving cold front will add instability and lift to the mix Saturday and Sunday.

Everyone should benefit from widespread rainfall today into Sunday locally. Storm totals look to average around 2" to 2.50". Local totals could be in the 4" to 6" range. Rare are the summers when it rains this much all over the region and so enjoy this one.

Event:Special Weather Statement
A deep tap of monsoon moisture will combine with a storm system 
drifting west across NM to produce numerous showers and storms 
today through Saturday. Some of these storms will be capable of 
producing torrential rainfall rates and localized flash flooding. 
Three-day average rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected 
from southeastern NM west across the lower Rio Grande Valley and 
into southwest NM. Locally higher amounts of 4 to 5 inches are 
possible along east facing peaks and ridges across southern NM. 
The greatest threat for flooding will be over recent burn scars, 
complex terrain, urban drainages, and low lying areas. Creeks and 
streams may also become elevated through the weekend due to the 
widespread extent of heavy rainfall across the area. 
Monitor NOAA weather radio, or your local media 
for the latest updates on this developing weather scenario.
Target Area:
Central Highlands
Chaves County Plains
Curry County
De Baca County
Eastern Lincoln County
Eastern San Miguel County
Estancia Valley
Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass
Guadalupe County
Lower Rio Grande Valley
Northeast Highlands
Quay County
Roosevelt County
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands
San Francisco River Valley
Sandia, Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood
South Central Highlands
South Central Mountains
Southwest Chaves County
Southwest Mountains
Upper Tularosa Valley
Forecast Office:NWS Albuquerque (Northern and Central New Mexico)

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!


  1. Picked 3.11” yesterday afternoon and evening and an 1” a day before in NE El Paso posted in COCORAHS


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