Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Hurricane Threat In The Gulf Of Mexico Early Next Week?

August 14, 2021.
Rio Penasco River.
Flash Flooding At Mile Marker #51.

August 14, 2021.
Rio Penasco River.
Flash Flooding At Mile Marker #51.

This area is normally dry and is not the main channel of the river. The river runs up against the hill in the background and is usually only a foot or so deep, and less than 10 feet wide. The Penasco had overflowed its banks and flooded the pasture area in the photo. At one point earlier in the morning it had overflowed up on US Hwy 82 for a brief time.



An area of disturbed weather is indicated on the map above by the orange x circled in red. This denotes the location of thunderstorms that will likely become a Tropical Storm in the Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday or Monday. Wind shear in the open Gulf is forecast to be low and very warm water temperatures will aid in the development of a Hurricane next week.


Valid At 2 PM MDT Wednesday, August 25, 2021.




GEFS.


ATCF


CMC.


GFS Strenght/Rainfall Forecast.



A large degree of uncertainty exists concerning the track and strength of next week's potential Tropical Storm or Hurricane. The ensemble forecasts from today's model runs point this out.

This mornings run of the US GFS model forecasts a strong hurricane making landfall near Cameron, Louisana by next Tuesday morning. Take this with a huge grain of salt since the storm hasn't even formed yet and much can, and will likely change between now and the first of next week. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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