Welcome To Southeast New Mexico Weather.

June 26th, 2019. Looking West Towards Washington Ranch Southwest Of Carlsbad, NM.
High based thunderstorms are common in New Mexico in the spring and sometimes early summer. Meaning that these storms often have cloud bases that are some 10,000' to 15,000' above the surface. This occurs when the low levels of the atmosphere are relatively dry. The result is often light rainfall if it manages to fall to the ground. If not then you see a lot of virga as in my photo above. Virga is precipitation streaks that falls from the clouds but evaporates before it reaches the ground. Virga is a common sight in New Mexico.
When Do The Summer Rains Begin?
GFS 500 Millibar/18,000' MSL Height Analysis.
Valid At Midnight Sunday, June 30th, 2019.
GFS 500 Millibar/18,000' MSL Winds Analysis.
Valid At Midnight Sunday, June 30th, 2019.
Last nights upper air soundings and analysis shows a ridge of high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere camped out over the area. Winds aloft at ar…

Radar 214-Hour Estimated Rainfall Totals. (As Of 5 AM MDT Friday, June 28th, 2019).
Cannon AFB Radar Estimates.

Holloman AFB Radar Estimates.

El Paso/Santa Teresa Radar Estimates.

Regional Satellite/Radar/Reported Rainfall Totals.

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms developed over and near the mountains yesterday afternoon. These storms congealed into a complex that moved southeastward into the northern Pecos Valley of Southeastern New Mexico around midnight and afterwards.
Radar estimated some pockets of heavier rainfall from this activity although it was widely scattered in nature. The heaviest rains appear to have fallen just south of the Mayhill area with 1.00" to 3.00" possibly having drenched a small area. 
Tis the season of hit and miss thunderstorms. Those of us who manage to get lucky and get hit with one can get a decent rain while most will not get wet. 
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

Pine Lodge Fire.

Courtesy Of Kyle Miller Fire Photography On Facebook.
"The crew is leaving the Pine Lodge Fire in New Mexico and are on our way to Cloudcroft for a preposition due to the expected lightning the area is expecting over the next few days. These photos are from mostly backfiring operations on the Pine Lodge Fire. I'll add descriptions when I can, so sorry for the blank photo descriptions for now."
GRLevel3 2.00 Dual Pol Radar. (Cannon AFB Radar).
Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals Today As Of 5 PM MDT.
Pine Lodge Fire Burn Area.

Latest Update On The Pine Lodge Fire.
Flash Flood Warning For The Pine Lodge Fire Area Today.

Quote-
T"he National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Lincoln County in central New Mexico...

* Until 400 PM MDT.

* At 159 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
rain across the Pine Lodge burn area. Up to two tenths of an inch
of rain has already fallen and an additional one to two ten…

June 23rd, 2019.
My wife and I were on our way back home from a trip to Las Cruces this past Sunday afternoon when I took this photo of  a pyrocumulus cloud and smoke. We were just north of Dunken, in southwestern Chaves County, on US Hwy 82 looking back to the north at the Pine Lodge Fire.
As of late Monday evening this forest fire has already consumed 7,898 acres with 0% containment. The cause of this fire remains unknown and it started around 2 PM MDT on June 19th. 
Chance For T-Storms Today.
Courtesy Of NWS Midland.
Courtesy Of NWS Albuquerque.
AnAir Quality Alert remains in effect for today for Lincoln County because of smoke from the Pine Lodge Forest Fire. 
Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to pop up over the area this afternoon and evening with the best chances for storms across Eddy and Lea Counties. The Carlsbad and Hobbs areas has a 30% chance of getting wet. A few of these thunderstorms may be marginally severe and produce large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts…

Reported High Temperatures. (Wednesday, June 19th, 2019).

Both the Carlsbad and Roswell Airports reported high temperatures yesterday of 102ºF. It was 120ºF yesterday in Death Valley. 
NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures Today.


NWS Albuquerque Forecast Highs Today.

NWS Midland Forecast Highs Today.

NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa Forecast Highs Today.

Heat Advisory Today For West Texas.
Forecast highs today across Southeastern New Mexico are expected to range from 101ºF to 105ºF. A few locations may get a little hotter. Forecast highs across West Texas are expected to range from 102ºF to 108ºF. A few locations may be hotter.
Similar readings are forecast for Friday.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

GRLevel3 2.00 Radar 24-Hour Rainfall Total.

A Severe Thunderstorm dropped quarter (1.00" diameter) to 1.25" diameter hail that covered the ground around 7:30 PM MDT Monday, June 17th. Several rounds of hail were observed. Heavy rain also accompanied the storm with radar estimating around 3.50" of rain having fallen 5-6 miles west-southwest of town just south of US Hwy 82.

A Personal Weather Station (PWS) measured 1.96" of rainfall in the center of town. Another classic example of how localized severe thunderstorms can be as well as their heavy rainfall and flash flooding. 
Courtesy Of Storm Chaser Brandon Ivey.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Today.


Storm Prediction Centers Severe Weather Outlook Today.
Latest Updated Outlook Available At 7 AM MDT.
Dew point temperatures have climbed up into the low to mid 60's early this morning with the dryline backed up against the east slopes of the Capitan, Sacramento, and Guadalupe mountains. Low level southeasterly upslope flow is producing a deck of stratocumulus over the Pecos Valley and Southeastern Plains this morning.
Just like that our chances for scattered thunderstorms popped back up overnight with the risk for marginal to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. In yesterday's blog I mentioned that our chances for rain were pretty much over...not so fast. This just proves how our weather can change and how quickly it does so.
Thunderstorms are forecast to form over the mountains late this morning and early this afternoon and then drift eastward out over the Southeastern Plains and into West Texas by late this afternoon and evening. Lar…

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures.
Today.

Monday.

Tuesday.

Wednesday.

Thursday.

Friday.

GFS 10-Day Forecast High/Low Temperatures.



WPC 7_Day Rainfall Forecast.

For now our stormy weather comes to an end. We are leaving the average heart of our severe weather season as we head towards the end of this month. Does this mean that we can't have severe thunderstorms from here on out? Absolutely not. Severe thunderstorms have been documented just about every month of the year locally. We usually have a second severe weather season beginning around the end of August into the first of October. Without a doubt our spring was very active severe weather-wise and got off to an early start.
The heat machine is slated to crank up over the area over at least the next week if not beyond. Forecast high temperatures over the next week to ten days will be at or above 100ºF. Next Friday looks to be the hottest day of the upcoming week with a forecast high temperatures in Carlsbad of 104ºF. Don't be too su…