Snowfall Totals From Last Nights Storm.

Ruidoso, NM Today.

Cloudcroft, NM This Evening.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

New Mexico Snowfall Totals.

Southern New Mexico Snowfall Totals.

New Mexico CoCoRaHS Snowfall Totals.

Bonito Lake reported 9" of new snow while Ski Apache reported 6" of new snow. 3.6" of new snow was reported 4.7 miles east of Cloudcroft, 3.5" was reported 1.8 miles southwest of Cloudcroft, while 2.9" was reported in Cloudcroft.

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Windy Today...Chilly This Week.

Pretty Much The Theme For Our Weather This Afternoon.

24-Hour Rainfall Totals As Of 5 AM MST. 

 A mix of light rain, sleet, and snow was reported across the southeastern plains overnight. As far as I know there were no significant accumulations on the ground. Snow also fell in the Sacramento mountains and I will post those totals later today.

Winter Weather Advisory For The Sac's.

Wind Advisory Today For Eddy/Culberson Co's.

High Wind Warning Today For The Guadalupe Mountains.

 06Z/11 PM MST NAM 500 MB Analysis Last Night.

Dense Freezing Fog covers parts of southeastern New Mexico early this morning. Visibilities in the Carlsbad and Artesia areas are reported to be down to 1/4 of a mile or less. Some of are roads are glazed over with ice so please be careful out there this morning.

By mid-day the fog will have burned off. Strong downslopping southwesterly winds are forecast to kick up later this morning. These southwesterly winds will become sustained at around 30 - 40 mph with gusts near 55 mph across Eddy and Culberson Counties. They won't be quiet as bad across the rest of the southeastern plains, but it will still be a windy day. 

We will see afternoon high temps in the mid-upper 50's today. A cold front will move through the area tonight, dropping our highs back down into the mid 40's for New Years Day, as well as on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will see highs in the mid 40's to near 50.

Another Storm On Thursday?

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday January 3, 2013.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday January 2, 2013.

Our next storm to sweep across the state on Thursday does not look very impressive on last nights model runs. The European (ECMWF) sees to be the outliner in trying to close up a short wave over northwestern Mexico by Wednesday evening. But its not a certain call at this point given the models continuing struggle to forecast these systems of late.

10-Day Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks.

GFS & ECMWF Roswell, NM.

 

GFS & ECMWF Artesia, NM.

GFS & ECMWF Carlsbad, NM.

 GFS & ECMWF Hobbs, NM.

GFS & ECMWF Ruidoso, NM.

GFS & ECMWF Albuquerque, NM.

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A Mix Of Rain, Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow Tonight Into New Years Eve Day.

Today's 18Z/11 AM MST NAM 500 MB Analysis.

Today's 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

NAM Temperature Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

NAM Max Snow Depth Forecast.

Valid At 7 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

NAM Max Snow Depth Forecast.

Valid At 9 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

NAM Simulated Radar Valid At 5 PM MST Today.

NAM Simulated Radar Valid At 11 PM MST Tonight.

NAM Simulated Radar Valid At 6 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

Winter Weather Advisory Northern Sacramento Mtn's.

Winter Weather Advisory Southern Sacramento Mtn's.

A strong winter storm will be moving into northern Arizona by sunset tonight. This winter storm will move across New Mexico tomorrow. There are still some questions as to just how far south this storm will track...so its possible to still see some additional adjustments to our local forecasts tonight into tomorrow.

Remember that these are a computer model forecast, these snowfall amounts may be higher in some areas, and lower in others than what this model is forecasting. Some areas of southeastern New Mexico may get some snow cover on the ground that are not currently shown to do so, if temperatures can fall to freezing or below. Use these maps as general guides only.

A wintry mix of light rain , sleet, light freezing rain, and snow is forecast to break out across the southeastern plains of New Mexico later tonight. At this time only light accumulations are forecast. Maybe an inch or so in the Guadalupe mountains, and a 1/2" on the grassy areas of Eddy, Lea, Chaves Counties. 

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Mountain Park, Cloudcroft, Meslcalero, Sunspot, Timberon, and Mayhill areas of the Sacramento mountains. 3"- 6" of snow is forecast to fall tonight into tomorrow above 5,500'. 1"- 3" is forecast to fall below 5,500'. 

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Ruidoso and nearby areas of the northern Sacramento mountains. 4" -  8" of snow are forecast above 8,000', and 2" - 6" expected below 8,000'. Areas of blowing snow are also forecast across the Sacramento mountains tonight into New Years evening. Roadways will become slick and hazardous. 

Should the winter storm that is approaching from northern Arizona move further south than what current model forecasts are indicating, then we may see more widespread and heavier snowfall totals across the local area than current forecasts indicate. 

Some of our local roadways are going to become very slick and icy later tonight into tomorrow. This will be especially over and near the mountains and northern locations. Please be careful out there!

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Wintry Mix Possible Tonight Into New Years Eve Morning.

Hooves & Horns Cowtoons. 

First Winter Storm Arrives Tonight.

 This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM 500 MB Analysis.

This Mornings IR Satellite Image At 7:00 AM MST.

Messy weather for New Mexico today into tomorrow. A trough of low pressure (see the NAM 500 MB map above) was located over the Great Basin at sunrise this morning. A closed mid-level low was trying to form over northwestern Arizona, southwestern California, and southern Nevada. 

Meanwhile a deep plume of mid and high level tropical moisture can be seen streaming northeastward into the local area from well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Region. Hence the overcast skies this morning.

 This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 12Z/5 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

This closed mid-level low is forecast by this mornings NAM model to move slowly eastward towards the Four-Corners Region by sunrise tomorrow morning.

Wintry Mix Possible Tonight Across E & SE NM.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM 4KM Temp Forecast.

Valid At 10 PM MST Tonight. 

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM 4KM Simulated Radar Forecast.

Valid At 10 PM MST Tonight.

 This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Temp Forecast.

Valid At 3 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

 This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM 4KM Simulated Radar Forecast.

Valid At 3 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

 This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM 4KM Max Snow Depth Forecast.

Valid At 7 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

NWS HPC Surface Map Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

High Wind Watch GDP Mtn's.

Winter Weather Returns To New Mexico.

Winter Storm Warnings/Advisories For NM.

Special Weather Briefing From NWS El Paso.

Special Weather Statement From NWS El Paso.

 

 A very tricky forecast tonight into tomorrow morning for the local area. As the upper-level storm approaches from the west tonight, and a colder airmass settles in, combined with the continued feed of mid-high level moisture from the southwest, a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow will be possible across the eastern and southeastern plains, and parts of west Texas.

 A cold front will be poised to enter the southeastern plains tomorrow. I just took a quick look at the latest RUC short range model forecast, and its hinting that the approaching upper-level storm from the west may try and dig a little further south than what the models are forecasting.

Should the arrival of the colder airmass be faster than what is currently forecast, along with a slower and deeper storm to our west that settles a little further to the south than what is being forecast by the models, then this would give us a better shot at seeing a more widespread mix of wintry precipitation across the southeastern plains, as well as the rest of the area tonight into New Years Eve. 

So don't be too surprised to possibly see some changes to our local forecasts. Please note that the local forecasts listed below were issued at 4 AM MST this morning, and will be updated again by 4 PM MST this afternoon.

 

Current Albuquerque National Weather Service forecasts for the Roswell area are calling for a wintry mix of light rain, light freezing rain, and light snow after 11 PM MST tonight. 

Current Midland National Weather Service forecasts for the Artesia, Carlsbad areas don't give us much of a chance of seeing any precipitation tonight. Hobbs has a better chance of seeing some precipitation.

Current El Paso National Weather Service forecasts for the Cloudcroft area are calling for around 1" - 3" of snow across the southern Sacramento mountains, maybe a little more over the higher elevations.

Current Albuquerque National Weather Service forecasts for the Ruidoso area are calling for around 1" of snow with higher totals possible across the higher peaks.

Note: If we do end up getting a more widespread mix of freezing rain and snow, then some of our local roadways may be a mess later tonight into tomorrow morning. For the very latest on our local roadways as well as across New Mexico please visit this link.  

I'm waiting for this mornings run of the European (ECMWF), Canadian (CMC), and U.S. GFS models to come in before I post anything on what the New Years week is shaping up to look like. The models continue to struggle with this forecast...I'm not surprised by this in the least, so the forecast waters remain pretty muddy.

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Canadian & European Models Shifting Storm South.

  

Just as I have been suspecting all along, this mornings 12Z/5 AM MST run of the Canadian (CMC) model, and the European (ECMWF) model, are shifting the potent mid-upper level storm futher west, and south through Arizona on New Years Day, and into northwestern Mexico by Wednesday. This of course favors a colder and snowier Winter Storm for Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of west Texas.

 This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Analysis.

Valid At 5 AM MST Sunday December 30, 2012.

Valid At 5 AM MST New Years Eve December 31, 2012.

Valid At 5 AM MST New Years Day.

Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday January 2, 2013.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday January 3, 2013.

Next Weeks ECMWF/GFS Temp-Precip Forecast.

(This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Run).

ECMWF Albuquerque, NM.

 GFS Albuquerque, NM.

ECMWF Santa Fe, NM.

 GFS Santa Fe, NM.

ECMWF Ruidoso, NM.

 GFS Ruidoso, NM.

ECMWF Roswell, NM.

GFS Roswell, NM.

ECMWF Carlsbad, NM.

GFS Carlsbad, NM.

 

(A note on the timeline on the graphs above)-

12/27= 12Z/5 AM MST on Dec 27th.

00/28= 00Z/5 PM MST on Dec 27th. 

12/28= 12Z/5 AM MST on Dec 28th.

00/29= 00Z/5 PM MST on Dec 28th.

The blue plus sign is the initiation time of the models forecast. The blue numbers at the bottom of the graphs (12,24,48,72,etc) are the forecast hours from the initiation time. So these graphs are forecasting high and low temperatures, and total liquid precipitation through 240 hours, or the next 10 days.

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