My Current Weather

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Cool Again Today - Storm Late This Weekend?




Yesterday's temps certainly felt more like winter with morning lows in the single digits in the mountains, and the teens and twenties across the lower elevations. Highs temps yesterday in the 30's and 40's were some of the coldest readings of the season thus far.

Today will be another cool one with highs in the upper 40's to the low 50's. Wednesday will see highs in the low 60's, and Thursday the low-mid 60's.

 As our next winter storm takes aim at the state by Friday, our surface pressure gradient will tighten up, therefore dry downslopping southwesterly winds will help push our highs on Friday into the upper 60's to near 70.Southwesterly winds will kick up on Friday somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-35 mph with gusts over 50 mph or higher.



Our Next Winter Storm Late This Weekend.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday December 16, 2012.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF Temp Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday December 16, 2012.

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF Temp Anomaly Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday December 16, 2012.

Last nights computer model forecast run of the European model (ECMWF) is pretty bullish with our next potential winter storm. This next storm is forecast to dig southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska this weekend, and then dive southward into the Four Corners Region by Sunday night. The U.S. GFS model isn't picking up on this scenario just yet. 

I have been talking about a pattern change for a couple of weeks now, and that change started with our weekend storm. Long-range teleconnections and forecast models indicate that this change should continue possibly into January. A trend for much colder, and stormier weather is forecast for much of the nation over the next couple of months. 

Should this trend come true then it would be good news for New Mexico's Ski Resorts, not to mention our water sheds, lakes, and streams. Ski Apache, located west of Ruidoso has had a dismal start to the season with only 8" of snowfall, 3" of that falling Sunday.


 
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