Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Massive Confusion In The Computer Model Forecasts.



 A piece of the elongated upper-level trough of low pressure which is centered near the tip of the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, will break off a (in the form of a short wave trough of low pressure) and dive southeastward towards the southern California and Baja, Mexico region by late this weekend. Where it goes and what it does from there is highly speculative at this point.

There is trouble in the computer model forecast world. Massive confusion has taken over, and at best the models are a tangled mess. To say its bad would be an understatement. There is no run to run agreement with each of the models (GFS, CMC, NAM, ECMWF), or with each other concerning the future track and strength of this storm. Simply put they offer widely different and varied forecast solutions with each new run (every six hours) concerning our pending potential New Years week winter storm. I thought the models were a mess with the Christmas storm, this is ridiculous! 

So its time to punt, time to back off and wait, because it makes no sense whatsoever to try and pick any one model, or model run, to use as a guide as to what this next storm is going to do. We are going to have another winter storm affect the area beginning around New Years Eve, but what those exact affects are going to be is anybody's guess at this point. I'm hoping they settle down by the weekend.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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