Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 30-Day Temperature Graph

Finally A Storm One Week From Today?


Valid At 5 PM MST Monday December 10, 2012.

Valid At 5 PM MST Tuesday December 11, 2012.

Valid At 5 PM MST Tuesday December 11, 2012.

Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday December 12, 2012.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST run of the U.S. GFS forecast model is getting some attention. Its digging a fairly strong mid-upper level storm (closed low) into southwestern New Mexico by next Monday. With this storm comes much colder temps along with the prospect of snow. 

Valid At 5 PM MST Tuesday December 11, 2012.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST run of the European (ECMWF) model has the same idea of digging a strong closed low southward, but further to the southwest over the northern Baja region.

Valid At 5 PM MST Tuesday December 11, 2012.

So it appears that the long awaited pattern change may become reality by the first of next week. Whether or not we see a faster winter storm dive into southern New Mexico as forecast by the GFS, or a slower, even stalled winter storm as forecast by the ECMWF, is still up for grabs this far out. Undoubtedly, this will be an interesting week to keep up with the model forecasts. Our Ski Resorts sure could use a good dumping of the white stuff, not to mention the rest of us to help settle the dust, and at least give us the appearance that its winter not spring.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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