Updated Christmas Outlook - Still Lots Of Unknowns.
A large and complex storm is located west of Washington state this morning. This storm is depicted in the Water Vapor Satellite image, and the U.S. GFS 500 millibar analysis above. A piece of this storm is forecast to break off and move southeastward into the Great Basin by Sunday into Christmas Eve.
This potential Winter Storm that is forecast to possibly produce a White Christmas across parts of New Mexico has been, and continues to be, a very difficult one to predict. I had hoped that this mornings (12Z) runs of the models will help clear up the muddy waters, not so.
Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST run of the European (ECMWF) model offered the closet solution to what I think will eventually happen with this storm, so I'll use it in this mornings blog. Although I am not completely sold on this models forecasts either.
Valid At 5 PM MST Today.
ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday.
ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday.
ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Eve.
ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Day.
This forecast just looks funny to me, with the storm elongating and splitting like this. Plus the ECMWF has been jumping the center of the upper-level storm all over the place the past four or five days, and I think it has it way too far to the east (centered over southwestern Arkansas) on Christmas Day. This past weeks model forecasts looks a little bit similar to last years storm, with both the ECMWF and the GFS models all over the place with that historic snow storm too. Will history repeat itself this year...probably not but this one bears watching for sure.
Christmas Temperature Outlook.
Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Day.
ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Day.
It does appear that colder temps (some 10-20 degrees below normal?) will be headed our way in time for Christmas, and we still have a shot at seeing at least some light snow in southeastern New Mexico for Christmas this year. I still think that we are going to see some significant changes in the forecasts between now and Monday so don't give up hope just yet.
(00Z= 5 PM MST, 06Z= 11 PM MST, 12Z= 5 AM MST, 18Z= 11 AM MST).
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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