Current NWS Watches/Warnings/Hazards - Click On The Map For Your Area Of Interest.

Current NWS Watches/Warnings/Hazards - Click On The Map For Your Area Of Interest.
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Regional Radar

New Mexico

Eddy County Plains & Guadalupe Mtn's

Guadalupe Mtn's In Culberson County

Chaves County Plains & Mtn's

Lea County

Lincoln County

Otero County

Flash Flood Watches Remain In Effect - Another Historic Flash Flood Event Shaping Up?

6-26-2021.
Cumulonimbus Cloud.
Looking East At Brantley Lake Dam.

NWS Midland Doppler Radar.
24-Hour Estimated Rainfall Totals.



GRLevel3_2.0.
Cannon AFB Doppler Radar.
24-Hour Estimated Rainfall Totals.
















Thunderstorms moved from northwest to southeast early this morning (around 3:30 AM MDT) and into the Carlsbad area. A Personal Weather Station (PWS) reported 1.91" in the north La Huerta area of town. While on the southern end the Carlsbad Airport only reported a trace of rain. Demonstrating once again how a thunderstorm can be either feast or famine with its associated rainfall. 





Lamesa, Texas had 88 mph thunderstorm wind gusts, a tornado nearby, large hail, downed trees, power lines, and widespread street flooding were reported. Very heavy rainfall from last night's thunderstorms also occurred. The First Baptist Church took in at least 30 people that had lost their homes. The West Texas Mesonet Station reported a 24-hour rainfall total of 5.27" with 3.23" of that falling within 23 minutes.


RAIN 

 • 1 SW FORT SUMNER - 1.79 in.
 • 6 S TEXICO - 1.17 in.
 • 1 NE POJOAQUE PUEBLO - 1.11 in.
 • 6 W PLEASANT HILL - 1.05 in.
 • 4 WSW MILLS - 1.00 in.

 • 5 ESE BLACK LAKE - 0.95 in.
 •  JACONITA - 0.90 in.

 • 1 SE SAN ANTONIO - 0.89 in.
 • 5 N PLEASANT HILL - 0.82 in.
 •  CORDOVA - 0.82 in.

 • 1 WSW MIAMI - 0.78 in.
 • 4 W OCATE - 0.75 in.
 • 2 E LOS ALAMOS - 0.72 in.

 • 1 WSW SPRINGER - 0.69 in.
 • 13 SE TOLAR - 0.67 in.
 • 2 NNE CLOVIS - 0.67 in.
 • 6 NE LAS VEGAS - 0.64 in.

 • 2 NE CHACON - 0.56 in.
 • 3 NW SOLANO - 0.55 in.
 • 1 WSW LOS ALAMOS - 0.54 in.
 • 12 NW PILAR - 0.54 in.
 • 2 WNW CLOVIS - 0.50 in.

 • 1 WNW RED RIVER - 0.49 in.
 • 2 NNE SAN IGNACIO - 0.47 in.
 • 4 N NEWKIRK - 0.47 in.
 • 2 NW EL RITO - 0.47 in.
 • 3 E CLOVIS - 0.46 in.
 • 1 WNW EL RANCHO - 0.45 in.
 • 1 WNW WHITE ROCK - 0.44 in.
 • 1 ESE ABBOTT - 0.43 in.
 • 1 N AGUA FRIA - 0.43 in.
 • 1 W MORA - 0.41 in.
 • 3 NNW TEXICO - 0.40 in.
 • 4 S CLOVIS - 0.40 in.

 • 9 NE RANCHVALE - 0.39 in.
 • 2 WSW RUIDOSO - 0.39 in.
 • 2 SSW ARABELA - 0.35 in.
 • 5 SSW MESA - 0.35 in.
 • 3 SW LLANO - 0.35 in.
 • 2 SSW LOS CORDOVAS - 0.35 in.
 •  ANGEL FIRE - 0.31 in.
 • 2 N EDGEWOOD - 0.31 in.
 • 7 ESE KENNA - 0.30 in.
 • 1 W NAMBE - 0.30 in.

 • 2 ENE LOS ALAMOS - 0.28 in.
 • 2 SW ARROYO SECO - 0.28 in.
 • 1 E WHITE ROCK - 0.27 in.
 • 3 E LOS ALAMOS - 0.26 in.
 • 2 W VALDEZ - 0.26 in.
 • 14 S DURAN - 0.24 in.
 • 16 SSE PUERTO DE LUNA - 0.23 in.
 • 1 E LYDEN - 0.22 in.
 • 1 ESE TRUCHAS - 0.21 in.
 • 3 W EL PRADO - 0.21 in.
 • 1 E ARROYO SECO - 0.21 in.
 • 2 NNE LOS CORDOVAS - 0.20 in.
 • 2 ENE TAOS - 0.20 in.

 • 3 N UTE PARK - 0.19 in.
 • 9 ESE PUERTO DE LUNA - 0.19 in.
 • 1 SSW LA MADERA - 0.18 in.
 • 7 SE YATES - 0.18 in.
 • 1 SSW MORIARTY - 0.18 in.
 • 5 E SHADY BROOK - 0.18 in.
 • 2 ESE SANTA ROSA - 0.18 in.
 • 3 SW PORTALES - 0.18 in.
 • 1 N CANONES - 0.17 in.
 • 1 E RIO RANCHO - 0.17 in.
 • 2 NNE ROWE - 0.16 in.
 • 16 SSE NATL RADIO ASTRONOMY OBS - 0.15 in.
 • 14 W ELKINS - 0.15 in.
 • 4 NW TUCUMCARI - 0.14 in.
 •  ELIDA - 0.14 in.
 • 3 WNW RIO RANCHO - 0.13 in.
 • 15 NNW BITTER LAKE WILDLIFE REF - 0.13 in.
 • 8 S HAYDEN - 0.12 in.
 • 5 E SUMNER LAKE - 0.12 in.
 • 3 NE FARMINGTON - 0.12 in.
 • 2 SSW SANTA CRUZ - 0.11 in.
 • 3 WNW SANTA FE - 0.11 in.
 • 1 SE SAN GERONIMO - 0.11 in.
 • 1 W MOUNTAINAIR - 0.11 in.

 • 5 S TERERRO - 0.10 in.
 • 1 SSW CHAMIZAL - 0.10 in.
 • 10 E CORONA - 0.10 in.
 • 2 N CORRALES - 0.10 in.

 • 7 ESE DES MOINES - 0.10 in.

Last updated:
0919 AM 06/27/20

Worrisome News In The Model Forecasts.

(Today Through 6 PM MDT Wednesday).

ECMWF.


GFS.


Canadian GEM.


ICON.


WPC.


NWS.


NAM 3K.


A very worrisome (my opinion) trend continues to show up in all of the forecast models. No matter how you slice or dice their storm total rainfall forecasts...it all points to the same outcome. And that is very heavy to excessive rainfall from today (Sunday) through sunset Wednesday. This on top of what fell yesterday. 

Even the NAM 3K forecast dumps 11" of rain on Roswell for a storm total. That would be a disaster should it actually happen. Looking at the different runs posted above it's clear that they do not agree especially where the heaviest rains will end up falling. They rarely do. It's the trend that is bothering me. Even if you were to cut these totals in half it would still be an impressive event for the local area.

Widespread storm totals of 3" to 6" appear to be the average for the local area between today and Wednesday. Pockets of excessive rainfall could be possible as well. Anywhere from 6" to 18"? Yea I know that 18" near Guadalupe Peak is off the scale. But not if you look at what happened down there in September 2014 (16" fell overnight) it's not that far of a reach to believe.  

See my blog posts below.




During past historic widespread flasih flood events local ranchers and farmers have reported storm totals in the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan mountains of 20" - 30". They also have reported 24-hour totals of 10" or more. Will this be another history-making event? Time will tell. Parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas got hammered yesterday afternoon into early this morning with 3" to 6" already. 

Flash Flood Watches have been posted for much of the area from today through Monday. Most flash flood deaths occur at night and in vehicles. 

Remember: Turn Around - Don't Drown!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Widespread Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Shaping Up!


5-31-2021.
South Of Roswell, New Mexico.
Flash Flooding From 3" - 6" Of Rainfall.


ECMWF.

Valid This Afternoon - 6 PM MDT Tuesday, June 29, 2021.

GFS.

Valid This Afternoon - 6 PM MDT Tuesday, June 29, 2021.

WPC.

Valid This Afternoon - 6 PM MDT Tuesday, June 29, 2021.

National Weather Service (NWS).

Valid This Afternoon - 6 PM MDT Tuesday, June 29, 2021.

ECMWF 10-Day Rainfall & Temperature Forecasts.








RTMA Temperatures.

At 4:15 PM MDT Saturday, June 26, 2021.


At 3:41 PM MDT Saturday, June 26, 2021.


Widespread Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Shaping Up!

Everything appears to be coming together for a rather significant cool down and an extended period of heavy rainfall for the area. We will have to watch what happens to the moisture that Hurricane Enrique potentially could send northward into the region this upcoming week. If anything his moisture may help jump-start our annual southwestern monsoon a little early.

A stalled cold front over SE NM and W TX will act as a focus for thunderstorms to fire along and near the next couple of days. Much cooler temperatures and wetter conditions are on the way starting this afternoon and lasting into next week. 

Tonight thunderstorms will continue to develop and move eastward and southeastward. A large complex of thunderstorms looks to affect all of the local area tonight into Sunday morning. Training thunderstorms (one after another) will help elevate the flash flood threat. Severe thunderstorms are possible tonight into early Sunday morning also. See the Severe Thunderstorm Watches currently in effect (as of 5 PM MDT Saturday afternoon).

Flash flooding from heavy to very heavy rains will become a serious concern tonight into next week. Widespread storm total rainfall amounts look to be in the 2" to 4" range. With some spots possibly seeing 4" to 8" by Tuesday evening. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Drought Busting Rains Coming Along With Major Heat Relief!


(Storm Total Rainfall Estimates).


Cannon AFB GRLevel3_2.0.
(Storm Total Rainfall Estimates).





Locally Heavy Rain Has Already Fallen.

Thunderstorm activity picked up Wednesday afternoon and increased somewhat yesterday afternoon. A couple of severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for a broken line of thunderstorms that formed west of the Hobbs and Eunice areas Thursday afternoon. Local radar estimates indicate that maybe 3.50" of rain fell in a few spots west and southwest of Hobbs. This may be a little high due to hail contamination in the radar returns.

Major Changes Coming In Our Weather.


Valid At 6 AM MDT Monday, June 28, 2021.



Valid At 6 PM MDT Saturday, June 26, 2021.

A significant pattern change will usher in much cooler weather along with widespread heavy to very heavy rains this weekend into next week. A mid-upper level trough of low pressure is forecast to dig southwestward into the area this weekend. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will backdoor southwestward into the state tonight into Saturday night. While all of this is going on the annual monsoon will try and get an early start next week.


Friday.



Saturday.



Sunday.



Monday.








Today (Friday) will be another scorcher with afternoon highs ranging from the 80's in the Sacramento mountains to 100 to 105 across Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. As the strong cold front to our north pushes southward and westward on Saturday we should see our highs drop down into the mid 90's locally. 

Sunday into Monday will see a 20 to 30-degree drop in our high temperatures with most lower elevation locations only getting up into the 70's. The mountains will see the 60's. These readings will be some 20-degrees below normal. 

Threat For Severe Thunderstorms & Flash Flooding.





Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Tuesday, 

GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Tuesday, 

WPC Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Tuesday, 

NWS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Monday.

Flash Flood Threat This Weekend Into Tuesday.

 Good agreement among the computer forecast models with last night's runs. Generally, widespread rainfall across the local area between this afternoon and next Tuesday will be in the 1.50" to 4.00" range. Pockets of heavier rainfall will occur and storm totals potentially could end up in the 6" to 8" range in some locations. 

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening and again on Saturday. More so on Saturday. From Saturday night into the first of next week, we will transition into more of a heavy rain and flash flood event. Significant flash flooding will be possible in some areas. This will be especially true where training thunderstorms (one thunderstorm after another) occurs.

The good news is that the potential to further take a bite out of our exceptional to extreme drought will exist into next week.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Current Temperatures

Current Wind Chill Temps

NWS Forecast High Temps Today

NWS Forecast Low Temps Tonight

NWS Storm Total Precipitation Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Ice Accumulation Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS MIdland Ice Accumulation Forecast

NWS Midland Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

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