South Of Roswell, New Mexico.
Flash Flooding From 3" - 6" Of Rainfall.
ECMWF.
Valid This Afternoon - 6 PM MDT Tuesday, June 29, 2021.
GFS.
WPC.
Valid This Afternoon - 6 PM MDT Tuesday, June 29, 2021.
National Weather Service (NWS).
ECMWF 10-Day Rainfall & Temperature Forecasts.
RTMA Temperatures.
Widespread Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Shaping Up!
Everything appears to be coming together for a rather significant cool down and an extended period of heavy rainfall for the area. We will have to watch what happens to the moisture that Hurricane Enrique potentially could send northward into the region this upcoming week. If anything his moisture may help jump-start our annual southwestern monsoon a little early.
A stalled cold front over SE NM and W TX will act as a focus for thunderstorms to fire along and near the next couple of days. Much cooler temperatures and wetter conditions are on the way starting this afternoon and lasting into next week.
Tonight thunderstorms will continue to develop and move eastward and southeastward. A large complex of thunderstorms looks to affect all of the local area tonight into Sunday morning. Training thunderstorms (one after another) will help elevate the flash flood threat. Severe thunderstorms are possible tonight into early Sunday morning also. See the Severe Thunderstorm Watches currently in effect (as of 5 PM MDT Saturday afternoon).
Flash flooding from heavy to very heavy rains will become a serious concern tonight into next week. Widespread storm total rainfall amounts look to be in the 2" to 4" range. With some spots possibly seeing 4" to 8" by Tuesday evening.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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