This shot was taken just west of the Eddy/Chaves County line west of Hope this past Sunday. High-based "dry" thunderstorms had formed producing strong wind gusts, pockets of blowing dust, and generally less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall in a few isolated spots. This poor countryside is still "fried" from the drought, heat, and lack of significant rainfall over the past couple of years.
Latest Drought Info.
Springs rains have helped somewhat in Southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas. But most of the local area still remains in exceptional to extreme drought conditions. The mountains remain in severe to extreme drought conditions except for the northern Guadalupes which remain in exceptional drought conditions. As is the case with the recent rains they have been spotty. Even with the southern end of Roswell westward to the Ruidoso Downs area getting hammered with 3" to 7" of rain a couple of weeks ago this only raised them up out of the exceptional category to the extreme category. We have a long long way to go to get caught back up to normal.
Hope This Weekend.
GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Our chances for thunderstorms are increasing this weekend. A mid-level trough of low pressure is forecast to dig southward into the region as a strong cold front pushes southward into the local area. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are hinting at significant rainfall totals. It is very interesting also that both models cool us way down behind the frontal passage. Don't get too excited about this one model's rainfall forecast. Just understand that the potential for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is going up with time.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!