Happy Halloween 2013!

Happy Halloween From Red River, New Mexico.

Halloween Temperatures.

Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Valid @ 5 PM MDT This Afternoon.

Valid @ 5 PM MDT This Evening.

Valid @ 7 PM MDT This Evening.

Valid @ 8 PM MDT This Evening.

Valid @ 9 PM MDT This Evening.

A sunny Halloween is in store for the area today. Our afternoon high temperatures across southeastern New Mexico will range from the low-mid 70's. Northwest to west winds at around 10 -20 mph are anticipated across the southeastern plains. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Ruidoso area where northwest to west winds of 25 - 35 mph with gusts near 50 mph are expected today.

By sunset this evening the winds will begin to die off but there will still be a westerly breeze across the southeastern plains at around 5 - 15 mph...so it will be a little on the chilly side. By 9 pm our temps will be falling down into the 50's.

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Storm Is Too Far To The North.

Red River, New Mexico This Morning.

12Z/6 AM MDT NAM 500 MB Analysis.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT This Morning.

Water Vapor Satellite Image @ 7:45 AM MDT This Morning.

Our anticipated strong winter-like storm is going to be somewhat of a let down. At sunrise this morning the storm was beginning to split into an elongated mid-level trough of low pressure. Part of the storm is centered over northwestern Arizona while the core of the storm was centered over western Wyoming.

12Z/6 AM MDT NAM-WRF Snowfall Accumulations.

A week ago the models were going nuts with this storm...forecasting a big snow storm from the Rockies eastward into the plains. This is not to be now. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the northwestern Highlands and the San Juan Mountains of northern New Mexico through early this evening. 1" - 3" of snow is forecast with higher totals across the higher peaks and summits. 

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Ruidoso, Cloudcroft, Alamogordo, Las Cruces, and El Paso areas of southern New Mexico. Southwesterly winds sustained at around 25 - 35 mph with gusts up to around 40 - 50 mph are anticipated today.

12Z/6 AM MDT NAM-WRF Total Precipitation Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Thursday.

Mid and high level moisture which is the remnants of former Hurricane Raymond continue to stream over southern and southeastern New Mexico this morning. Unfortunately the strong mid-upper level storm to our northwest and north is just too far to the north to pull the bulk of this moisture northward into our local area. Therefore we will miss out on the rains. There may be an isolated thunderstorm or two around but overall our chances for seeing rain have gone by the way side. Central and eastern Texas ought to make out with some decent rainfall totals by Halloween at sunset. 

NWS SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook.

12Z/6 AM MDT NAM-WRF Cape Forecast.

Valid @ 4 PM MDT Today.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from Texas northward into Kansas. 

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Chance For T-Storms This Afternoon Into Wednesday.

Sunrise Over The Salt Lakes Located Southeast Of Carlsbad, 

New Mexico Monday Morning. The Sun Was Peeking Over A Fog Bank

06Z/ Midnight NAM 500 Analysis.

Deep Mid-Upper Level Low Parked Over Nevada.

IR Satellite Image Of The Remnant Moisture From Tropical Storm

Raymond Streaming Northeastward Into New Mexico.

Our large mid-upper level storm was still located over Nevada as of midnight last night. The models slowly begin to open this closed low up and move it eastward later today into Wednesday. Copious amounts of mid and high level moisture continue to stream northeastward from Tropical Storm Raymond. 

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for the southeastern plains and parts of west Texas later this afternoon, and our chances for getting wet will increase tonight, and continue into tomorrow. The dryline will sharpen up over the local area as the storm to our northwest begins to open up and move eastward.

Strong gusty southwesterly winds will rake the area Wednesday as the bulk of the storm slides across northern New Mexico. Some gusts will likely get up into the 40 - 50 mph range, especially over and near the mountains. 

Cooler air will move in behind a Pacific cold front Wednesday night into Friday with our daytime highs dropping back down into the 60's to mid 70's. Our overnight lows will dip down into the 30's. 

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Unusually Deep Mid-Upper Level Storm Headed Our Way.

Winds at ~ 0500 EDT lulled to about 50mph (http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php) allowing the Night Observer (Ryan Knapp) to weight down and set up his camera long enough to “light write” a message with his headlamp – GO SOX!

Unusually Deep Mid-Upper Level Storm.

Courtesy Of NWS Albuquerque.

Courtesy Of NWS Midland.

06Z/Midnight MDT NAM 500 MB Analysis.

06Z/Midnight MDT NAM Surface Cape Forecast.

Valid @ 3 PM MDT Tuesday.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook.

IR Satellite Image Of Hurricane Raymond @ 5:30 AM MDT.

An unusually deep mid-upper level storm is slowly sinking southward over northern California early this morning. Unfortunately there still remains more questions about where this storm is headed than there are answers.

 A slower and more southward track of the storm would mean more rain and snow for New Mexico...and a possible influx of the remnant moisture from Hurricane Raymond. Along with the possibility of severe thunderstorms over eastern and southeastern New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday.

 A more northerly track would mean less precipitation and more wind.

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Big Storm Next Week - Questionable Impacts.

NAM 500 MB Forecast @ 11 AM MST Monday.

Overall the models have settled down some...but the overall outlook is still uncertain. They basically agree that short wave now getting ready to round the upper-level ridge and drop into the Pacific Northwest will form a closed mid-upper level low over Nevada by Monday. Just how far south and west it sinks is still questionable. Of course this will have a huge impact on just what kind of weather will develop over New Mexico.

There some indications that the dry line will set up along or near the Texas/New Mexico border on Tuesday and Wednesday. If the storm to our west digs further south than forecast then the dry line will get pulled back to the west...giving the eastern and southeastern sections of the state a better shot at thunderstorms.

Still watching to see if Hurricane Raymond's moisture gets pulled up into the area by this strong approaching mid-upper level storm. There is the potential for this to happen if the storm digs far enough south and stalls long enough to grab onto Raymond's remnant moisture and pull it northeastward.

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Friday's Rainfall Totals.

NWS Mesonet 24-Hour Rainfall Reports As Of 5:30 AM MDT.

A fairly widespread area of light to moderate rainfall covered the area yesterday. The heaviest rainfall totals fell over the Sacramento Mountains. 

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Flip Flop Time With The Models Forecasts Of Next Weeks Storm.

U.S. GFS Model Forecasts.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Tuesday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

Temperature Anomaly Departures From Normal.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

Accumulated Snowfall Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

European (ECMWF) Model Forecasts.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Tuesday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

Temperature Anomaly Departures From Normal.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

Total Snowfall Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

Canadian (GEM) Model Forecasts.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Tuesday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

Accumulated Snowfall Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

Courtesy Of AccuWeather.

This mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT runs of the computer forecast models concerning our potential Halloween winter-like storm is interesting to say the least. By sunrise Wednesday morning the GFS has the center of the mid-level closed low over the northern Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile the European model has it over southern Nevada, and the Canadian model has it centered over northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. That's a lot of  variability on just where the storm is going to be located by Wednesday. 

U.S. GFS 500 MB Analysis @ 6 AM MDT This Morning. 

So its no wonder that forecasters are already struggling with this storm. Since we are talking about a storm that does not yet exist, one that is forecast by the models to spin out of the deep mid-upper level low parked over the Gulf of Alaska, then ride over the top of the ridge into the northwestern territories of Canada this weekend. And then drop southward into the Pacific by Sunday and Monday, we can yet expect to see the models flip flop around on their forecasts with this storm. 

We are in that transitory period between fall and winter which often gives the models fits with their forecasts concerning these winter-like storms. This one has a lot of potential to be a nasty storm possibly producing some very heavy snows from the Rockies eastward into the plains states next week.

Just what impacts it will have on New Mexico and surrounding areas is not yet clear. Much colder air will accompany the storm when it arrives by mid week, but who gets snow and how much is still very much up in the air. 

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Spooky Weather For Halloween Next Week?

This Mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT Canadian Model (GEM)

500 MB Forecast Valid @ Noon MDT Wed, Oct 30, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT Canadian Model (GEM)

Temperature Forecast Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wed, Oct 30, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT Canadian Model (GEM)

 Snowfall Forecast Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wed, Oct 30, 2013.

This mornings 12Z or 6 AM MDT run of the various computer models continues to be a quagmire of possible solutions concerning next weeks winter-like Halloween storm. I thought it was interesting that the Canadian model is swinging the closed mid-upper level storm into the Four Corners by next Wednesday, then opens it up as a trough of low pressure over central/southern New Mexico Wednesday night, as it begins to lifts northeastward and out of the state.

Again you simply cannot latch onto one model and say this is what is going to happen. As I mentioned in this mornings blog there will be changes within the models between now and the first of next week. So it will be a guessing game until then as to what is going to happen...but a fun one at that. The theme continues to be for a stormy pattern along with much colder weather...spooky if you don't like the cold and snow, and just in time for Halloween.

Click on this link to view this mornings blog concerning this potential winter-like storm.

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