Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Big Storm Next Week - Questionable Impacts.



Overall the models have settled down some...but the overall outlook is still uncertain. They basically agree that short wave now getting ready to round the upper-level ridge and drop into the Pacific Northwest will form a closed mid-upper level low over Nevada by Monday. Just how far south and west it sinks is still questionable. Of course this will have a huge impact on just what kind of weather will develop over New Mexico.

There some indications that the dry line will set up along or near the Texas/New Mexico border on Tuesday and Wednesday. If the storm to our west digs further south than forecast then the dry line will get pulled back to the west...giving the eastern and southeastern sections of the state a better shot at thunderstorms.

Still watching to see if Hurricane Raymond's moisture gets pulled up into the area by this strong approaching mid-upper level storm. There is the potential for this to happen if the storm digs far enough south and stalls long enough to grab onto Raymond's remnant moisture and pull it northeastward.

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