Severe T-Storms In NM.

Please View This Introductory Video Courtesy Of The Albuquerque

National Weather Service Office Concerning:

Severe Thunderstorms In New Mexico.

Severe thunderstorms are defined by the National Weather Service as downdraft winds in excess of 58 miles an hour and/or hail 1 inch in diameter or greater. 

Severe thunderstorms are reported each year in all New Mexico counties. Severe thunderstorms peak in the east during April through June and statewide July through August.

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The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma issues a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH to give you advance notice that severe thunderstorms are possible in your area. This gives you time to make preliminary plans for moving to a safe location if a severe thunderstorm warning is issued. The SPC also issues convective outlooks (see this SPC link) for days 1 through 3.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING is an urgent announcement that a severe thunderstorm has been reported or is imminent and warns you to take cover. Severe thunderstorm warnings are issued by local NWS offices.

What you can do before a storm strikes...

• Know the county you are located in and the names of the major nearby cities or towns.
• Severe weather warnings and statements are issued by county and reference major cities.
• Check the latest weather forecast and hazardous weather outlook.
• Watch for signs of an approaching thunderstorm.
• If a storm is approaching, tune to NOAA Weather Radio and/or AM/FM radio.
• Postpone outdoor activities if thunderstorms are imminent. This is your best way to avoid being caught in a dangerous situation.

When thunderstorms approach...

Outdoors:

• REMEMBER if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to a storm to be struck by lightning.
• If possible, move to a sturdy building or hard top automobile.
• If safe shelter is not available, find a low spot away from trees, fences, and poles.
• Squat low to the ground on the balls of your feet, place your hands on your knees with your head between them.
• Make yourself the smallest target possible and minimize your contact with the ground.
• Do not take shelter in small sheds, rock outcroppings, under isolated trees, or in convertible automobiles.
• If boating or swimming, get out of boats and away from the water, get to land and find shelter immediately.
• When boating, always stay tuned to the latest weather reports and return to safe harbor before the strong winds arrive.

Indoors:

• Stay away from windows and go to the safest location on the lowest level of your home.
• Unplug unnecessary appliances and only use the phone for emergencies.
• Mobile homes are especially vulnerable to the high winds of a thunderstorm and are subject to overturning and rolling if not properly anchored to the ground. As a minimum, the frame should be secured with heavy steel straps. Heavy straps should also go over the top of the home with both frame and over the top ties secured in concrete footings.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Tornadoes In NM & Tornado Safety.

Please View This Introductory Video Courtesy Of The Albuquerque

National Weather Service Office Concerning:

Tornadoes In New Mexico

&

Tornado Safety.

A tornado is defined as a violently rotating column of air that is touching the ground. Tornado wind speeds vary from 40 miles an hour for the weakest up to 300 miles an hour or greater for the most violent.Tornadoes are most common in eastern New Mexico in the spring, but they can occur anywhere. There have been tornado deaths in western areas of the state and near mountain communities. Here's some facts on tornadoes (and hail) in New Mexico.

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The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma issues a TORNADO WATCH to give you advance notice that tornadoes are possible in your area. This gives you time to make preliminary plans for moving to a safe location if a tornado warning is issued.

A TORNADO WARNING is an urgent announcement that a tornado has been reported or is imminent and warns you to take cover immediately. The following are instructions on what to do when a tornado warning has been issued for your area or whenever a tornado threatens:

 IN HOMES OR SMALL BUILDINGS:

• Act quickly; seconds save lives.
• Go to the basement (if available) or to an interior room on the lowest floor, such as a closet or bathroom.
• If possible, get under a sturdy table or workbench.
• Wrap yourself in overcoats or blankets to protect yourself from flying debris.
• Be sure to stay clear of any threat of flying glass.

IN MOBILE HOMES, AUTOMOBILES, OR RVs:

• ABANDON THEM IMMEDIATELY!! Most deaths occur in cars and mobile homes. If you are in either of those locations, leave them and go to a substantial structure or designated tornado shelter.
• Mobile homes provide no shelter in a tornado regardless of how well tied down, and should be abandoned for a storm shelter.
• if you live in a mobile home, be sure you have a plan of safe action should the weather become threatening.
• If no shelter is available, lie flat in a ditch or depression in the ground and use your hands to cover your head.

IN SCHOOLS, HOSPITALS, FACTORIES, OR SHOPPING CENTERS:

• Go to interior rooms and halls on the lowest floor. Stay away from glass enclosed places or areas with wide-span roofs such as auditoriums and warehouses. See the left figure for an example of where to go in a school. Crouch down and cover your head as shown in the right figure.

IN HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS:

• Go to interior small rooms or halls. Stay away from exterior walls or glassy areas.

 The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Types Of Severe Weather In NM.

Please View This Special Web Video Courtesy
Of The Albuquerque National Weather Service Office.

Understanding Outlooks, Watches, & Warnings.

What Types of Severe Weather Can I Expect in New Mexico?

• All 32 counties in New Mexico experience severe thunderstorms producing high winds, large hail, deadly lightning, and heavy rains at some time during the year.
• During the spring, from April through June, storms are at a peak mainly in the eastern areas of the state. Storms become more numerous statewide from July through August.
• Tornadoes have been verified in most New Mexico counties. The highest risk of tornadoes is in the east during April through July, but tornadoes are possible with any thunderstorm. New Mexico averages about 10 tornadoes in a year. For example, on October 21, 2010, a tornado tracked just north of Roswell. A significant tornado outbreak occured on May 23, 2010 across eastern Union County. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/?n=climonhigh2010maysigevents
• New Mexico experiences mostly weak, short-lived tornadoes. Strong tornadoes, while rare, are possible and occur about once every 10 years.
• New Mexico's complex terrain favors the formation of numerous small landspouts, a weak and short-lived variation of the tornado similar to a dust devil. Landspouts may form without the presence of a strong thunderstorm.
• Tornadoes can severely damage large and small buildings.
• Hail with flash flooding becomes a threat for central and western New Mexico from June through September.
• Hail can also be a killer.

Here are some more tornado and hail facts for New Mexico...

• Seventy-five (75) percent of severe storms with tornadoes occur in eastern New Mexico and are most likely to occur between April and July. However, the latest tornado fatalities in New Mexico occurred on March 23, 2007 when two people died, 1 near Clovis (and 33 were injured) and one in Quay County. Another fatality occurred west of Albuquerque in October 1974 and a rare winter tornado was reported southwest of Roswell in December 1997. This shows that tornadoes can be deadly at anytime and nearly anywhere within the state, even at both low and high elevations.
• The Cimarron tornado on July 25, 1996 caused nearly 2 million dollars in damage, but fortunately only 6 injuries.
• Other tornadoes that caused multiple injuries include: Carlsbad 1992 (6 injured), Maxwell 1964 (1 dead, 8 injured), Philmont Scout Ranch near Cimarron 1960 (34 injured), Wagon Mound 1930 (3 dead, 19 injured) and Logan 2007 (12 injured).
• Most counties across the eastern half of the state will see large hail ranging from golf ball to softball at least 6 to 8 times during the spring and also during the summer thunderstorm season.
• Smaller hail is much more frequent and common in all counties across the east.
• Counties in the central and western areas will see damaging hail at least twice each year. Hail the size of baseballs or softballs has been reported near Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Las Cruces within the past 3 to 6 years. The Socorro hail storm in October 2004 caused nearly 40 million dollars in damage from baseball sized hail.

The tables below illustrate the frequency of tornadoes and hail by month and by hour of the day from 1959 to 2010..

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

2011 Severe Weather Awareness Week In NM.

Please View This Introductory Video Courtesy Of The Albuquerque

National Weather Service Office Concerning:

Severe Weather

Awareness Week In New Mexico.  

A Review Of Severe Weather For 2010.

The National Weather Service (NWS) designated March 27 - April 2, 2011 as New Mexico Severe Weather Awareness Week. This marks the annual campaign to promote severe thunderstorm, tornado and safety awareness across New Mexico.

The key to avoiding serious injury or death during a severe thunderstorm or tornado is to start well before severe weather strikes. Develop personal and community severe weather action plans, conduct drills to practice severe weather survival skills, and ensure that your local community has an adequate severe weather warning and reporting system. In addition, be familiar with the hazards that can occur in New Mexico. Learn basic severe weather safety rules and make sure to keep aware of the latest warning and forecast information.

After months of winter weather, Severe Weather Awareness Week is a good time to review thunderstorm safety rules and hazardous weather preparedness plans. It is also an opportune time to conduct severe weather drills throughout your community, at school, at work, in the hospital or health care facility, and in the home. Schools that received a Weather Radio under the NOAA Weather Radio for Public School program could conduct drills and monitor for a special radio test on Wednesday, March 30, 2011  to ensure their radio functions properly.

Emergency managers can prepare their communities for severe weather by conducting safety drills and testing local warning systems, and by ensuring local spotter groups have been organized and have received recent SKYWARN training. Annual severe weather spotter training continues across the state. It's important that your community has trained severe weather spotters. Visit our SKYWARN Page for additional information and the latest training schedule.

The National Weather Service StormReady program offers guidance on preparing communities for hazardous weather. A city or county that has met a minimum standard of severe weather preparedness will be given special recognition as StormReady.

News media and New Mexico emergency managers or anyone needing assistance in severe thunderstorm and tornado safety preparedness and planning are invited to contact one of the following offices for details:

	Northern and Central New Mexico (NWS Albuquerque NM) Kerry Jones - Warning Coordination Meteorologist (505) 244-9150 Ext. 223
	South Central New Mexico (NWS El Paso TX) John Fausett - Warning Coordination Meteorologist (575) 589-4088 Ext. 223
	Southeastern New Mexico (NWS Midland TX) Pat Vesper - Warning Coordination Meteorologist (432) 563-5901 Ext. 223

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Another Missed Chance For Rain.

WRF 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast Map

Valid At 12Z/6 AM MDT Thu.

Say goodbye to our chance for rain later this week. Instead of developing a closed low over eastern New Mexico by midweek, the latest model trends are forecasting a trough of low pressure to swing across the state. Bummer...I was really hoping for a thunderstorm or two across SE NM.

Today will be warm and breezy with southwesterly winds at around 20-25 mph with gusts up to around 35 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the local area today. Highs today will be in the mid-upper 80's.

Looking ahead to next weekend, it appears that we are going to go from spring to summer temperature wise. Last nights NWS forecast for Carlsbad was calling for a high temp next Sunday of 101. This mornings updated forecast is calling for a high of 97. I'm not ready for it to be that hot this early. Looks like it may be a long hot summer for us if this trend continues.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Next Major Storm Due Wednesday.

This Mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL

Forecast Map Valid At 6 AM MDT Thu Mar 31, 2011.

Warm Windy Weather Continues.

March started off fairly tranquil this year in southeastern New Mexico, but it appears that the Lion will roar as it ends the middle of this upcoming week. You remember the old saying right: "March  In Like A Lion...Out Like A Lamb", well this year it appears that it will be: "March In Like A Lamb...Out Like A Lion".

The GFS computer forecast model is the odd man out on forecasting this weeks strong storm that will impact the area by mid week. It continues to forecast a deeper, colder, and wetter storm than the ECMWF, which tracks the storm across the state as more of an open wave than a closed low like the GFS. This mornings run of the Canadian model interestingly enough is trending more towards the GFS solution.

If the GFS forecast model is correct, then we may have a shot at some rain locally by around Wednesday...maybe even a few thunderstorms. This would be welcome news considering how dry it is. I have only recorded .23" of rainfall since January 1st here at my home in Carlsbad, NM. A mix of rain and snow could even impact parts of northeastern and eastern New Mexico Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Its still a little early to get too excited about this just yet so more on this later.

A cold front will sweep across the area Wednesday night bringing much cooler temperatures to the area Thursday. Our highs on Thursday may not get out of the 60's, and our low temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings will be in the 30's. There is a possibility of a freeze across parts of the local area Friday morning.

Meanwhile, we can look forward to a warm and windy day across the area tomorrow. Our afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be in the low-mid 80's Sunday and Monday. Southwesterly winds will increase to around 20-30 mph each afternoon with gusts in the 40-45 mph range. 

Latest Drought Update.

Current US Drought Status.

Latest US Drought Outlook.

Monthly Temperature Outlook For April.

Monthly Rainfall Outlook For April.

Temperature Outlook For April-May-June.

Rainfall Outlook For April-May-June.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Another Gorgeous SE NM Sunrise.

Another Gorgeous SE NM Sunrise This Morning.
Another Reason Why I Love Living Here.


More Wind...More Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions.

This update is going to be fairly short...please see the links and graphicast maps on this web page for additional details concerning the Red Flag Warnings that are out for SE NM today, and the threat for a few supercell thunderstorms across parts of West Texas this afternoon and evening.

Once again the dryline wobbled back westward into southeastern New Mexico overnight, but will quickly mix eastward today, as a fairly strong southwesterly surface regime becomes established. Southwesterly wind gusts will kick up into the 30-40 mph range across the lower elevations of SE NM this afternoon.

A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains for this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 30-40 mph with gusts near 60 mph.

So another critically dangerous fire weather setup is on tap for us. Even stronger southwesterly winds are forecast across the area tomorrow. Our afternoon highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid-upper 80's.

A few scattered supercell thunderstorms may develop across parts of West Texas this afternoon and evening. The main severe weather threat will be large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts associated with these severe thunderstorms.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Critical Fire Weather Conditions Thursday!

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.

Surface Map Forecast Valid At 6 PM Thu Mar 24, 2011.

SPC Fire Weather Outlook Valid For Thu Mar 24, 2011.

WRF 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast Map 

Valid At 6 PM MDT Thu Mar 24, 2011.

Fire Weather Watch For Thursday!

Critically Dangerous Fire Conditions.

Peak Wind Gusts Reported Tuesday-

San Augustin Pass - E Of Las Cruces 65 mph

Guadalupe Pass 55 mph

Bowl Raws - Just N Of Guadalupe Pk 55 mph

Artesia Airport 52 mph

Carlsbad Airport 50 mph

Dunken Raws 50 mph

Queen Raws 50 mph

2 SW Tatum 49 mph

Smokey Bear Raws - Near Ruidoso 49 mph

Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns Nat'l Park 46 mph

Caprock Raws 45 mph

It seems like the wind, dust, and fire weather threat will never end across southeastern New Mexico and west Texas. Eventually it will but not anytime soon. The latest La Nina outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is calling for the continued weakening of the current ongoing La Nina, with the possibility of the return to Neutral Conditions by June. 

Meanwhile, the polar jet stream remains very active and continues to send storm after storm into California from the Pacific Northwest, which in turn sweep eastward across the southern Rockies and into New Mexico. The storm track remains anchored to the north of southeastern New Mexico, and as long as it continues to do so, then our chances for meaningful rainfall remain slim.

Thursday will see a return to temperatures in the mid-upper 80's accompanied by gusty southwesterly winds int eh 20-30 mph range across the local area. A stronger and colder upper-level storm is forecast to sweep across the northern sections of the state this weekend...so more  wind and critically dangerous fire weather conditions look to be on tap for southeastern New Mexico.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Windy With Areas Of Blowing Dust.

Surface Map Forecast At Noon Today.

Peak Wind Gusts On Monday-

Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 70 mph

San Augustin Pass - E of Las Cruces 68 mph

Dunken Raws 54 mph

Bowl Raws - N of Guadalupe Pk 53 mph

Pinery Raws - Pine Springs 51 mph

Smokey Bear Raws - Near Ruidoso 49 mph

8-Mile Draw Raws 46 mph

Roswell Airport 46 mph

2 SW Tatum 42 mph

Mescal Raws - Near Mescalero 40 mph

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

High Wind Warning Guadalupe Mtn's

Valid Until 6 PM MDT Today

SW Winds 35-45G65 mph.

Wind Advisory!

Lincoln-Chaves-Eddy-Lea Counties

Valid Until 7 PM MDT Today

SW Winds 25-40G55 mph 

Areas Of Blowing Dust May 

Reduce The Visibility Down

To Less Than 1/2 A Mile. 

Red Flag Warning Today!

Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions

Potential For Wind Driven Fires

At sunrise this morning an upper-level trough of low pressure was easing into western New Mexico. This trough will continue to move eastward today across the state. A deep surface low was located in southeastern Colorado and western Kansas. A dry Pacific Cold Front will sweep across New Mexico today from west to east. 

Strong southwesterly winds kept our overnight low temperatures up last night across southeastern New Mexico. Most reporting stations were reporting temperatures in the 50's and 60's at sunrise this morning. Most of us should see our afternoon highs in the low 80's.

Another windy and dusty day in in store for us. Areas of blowing dust may reduce the visibility down to less than one half of a mile in the normally dust prone areas. This will be especially true near open or freshly plowed farmland, fields, lots, and construction sites. Southwesterly winds are forecast to gust up to 50-55 mph across the southeastern plains today.

A dangerous fire weather setup will exist across the area today. Strong southwesterly winds will have the potential to promote the rapid growth and spread of any fire that should break out. Please refrain from any type of outdoor activity that involves the use of sparks of flame.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

HOT & Windy.

Click On The Photos To Enlarge Them.

Supermoon Rises Over Carlsbad, NM 3-19-2011.

High Wind Warning Lincoln County!

Valid 11 AM - 8 PM Today.

SW Winds Increasing To 30-45G55-70 MPH.

Wind Advisory Chaves County.

Valid 11 AM - 8 PM Today.

SW Winds 25-40G55 MPH.

High Wind Watch Guadalupe Mtn's Tue!

SW Winds 35-45G60 MPH.

Red Flag Warning SE NM & W TX Today!

Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions!

Please Refrain From All Outdoor Activity

That Involves The Use Of Sparks Or Flame.

Potential For Wind Driven Fires.

Record Heat Continues.

You would think that it is late April in southeastern New Mexico by the way the thermometer has been acting the past several days. Several stations have tied or set new daily high temperature records the past several days and will likely do so again today. Our afternoon highs are forecast to be in the mid 90's today.

As of 6 AM this morning, the dryline had backed westward to Carlsbad, which was reporting a dew point temperature of 52. It will mix eastward today as strong mid-level winds begin to mix downward to the surface. It will back westward once again this evening, and may help produce a few scattered thunderstorms in SE NM late this afternoon and early this evening. The best chances for any thunderstorms in SE NM would bear near the state line this afternoon, and maybe across Eddy County this evening. Our chances of rain are only around 20%.

A strong upper-level trough of low pressure is located just off the southern California Coast early this morning. It is forecast to swing eastward and will move across the state tomorrow afternoon.

Strong mid-level winds will mix downward to the surface today to help produce a breezy day across the local area. Southerly to southwesterly winds of 20-30G40 mph are expected across the southeastern Plains this afternoon. Chaves County will experience higher winds which may gust up to the 40-55 mph range today. See the Wind Advisory posted above for more details.

Slight Risk Of Severe Weather.

Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Dryline sloshes eastward to the state line today.

Low-level jet increases across W TX this afternoon.

Surface Based Cape Values near 1,000 j/kg east of the dryline.

Steep Mid-level Lapse Rates Of Around 8 c/km.

0-6 KM Bulk Shear Wind Speeds Near 50 Knots.

A few scattered thunderstorms may break out along and east of the dryline late this afternoon and early this evening. A few of these could possibly become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall. The most favored area for this activity will be over the Lower Trans Pecos Region of West Texas, and in the Big Bend area.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

New Daily Record High Temperatures.

March 16, 2011.

16 March 2011	Lat	Lon	ASOS/ COOP	COOP/ WBAN ID*	Record New (14) Tied (4)	Previous Record	Previous Year	Period of Record

CARLSBAD FAA AP [EDDY COUNTY], NM (KCNM)

32.34

-104.26

ASOS

291475

90.0°F

86.0°F

2008

69

ROSWELL INDUSTRIAL AP [CHAVES COUNTY], NM (KROW)

33.31

-104.51

ASOS

297610

85.0°F

84.0°F

1989

63

ELK [CHAVES COUNTY], NM

32.92

-105.34

COOP

292865

78.0°F

77.0°F

1989

60

March 17, 2011.

17 March 2011	Lat	Lon	ASOS/ COOP	COOP/ WBAN ID*	Record New (13) Tied (7)	Previous Record	Previous Year	Period of Record

CARLSBAD FAA AP [EDDY COUNTY], NM (KCNM)

32.34

-104.26

ASOS

291475

91.0°F

88.0°F

1994

70

CARLSBAD CAVERNS [EDDY COUNTY], NM

32.18

-104.44

COOP

291480

86.0°F

85.0°F

2007

75

ROSWELL INDUSTRIAL AP [CHAVES COUNTY], NM (KROW)

33.31

-104.51

ASOS

297610

90.0°F

87.0°F

1974

63

JAL [LEA COUNTY], NM

32.11

-103.19

COOP

294346

90.0°F

89.0°F

2004

64

PORTALES [ROOSEVELT COUNTY], NM

34.17

-103.35

COOP

297008

86.0°F

85.0°F

1974

97

March 18, 2011.

18 March 2011	Lat	Lon	ASOS/ COOP	COOP/ WBAN ID*	Record New (5) Tied (5)	Previous Record	Previous Year	Period of Record

ARTESIA 6S [EDDY COUNTY], NM

32.75

-104.38

COOP

290600

90.0°F

90.0°F

1989

101

HOPE [EDDY COUNTY], NM

32.81

-104.73

COOP

294112

87.0°F

85.0°F

1974

57

CARLSBAD CAVERNS [EDDY COUNTY], NM

32.18

-104.44

COOP

291480

88.0°F

84.0°F

1989

75

JAL [LEA COUNTY], NM

32.11

-103.19

COOP

294346

91.0°F

90.0°F

1974

65

TATUM [LEA COUNTY], NM

33.24

-103.36

COOP

298713

87.0°F

84.0°F

1994

82

CLOVIS [CURRY COUNTY], NM

34.43

-103.20

COOP

291939

85.0°F

84.0°F

1974

93

CLOVIS 13 N [CURRY COUNTY], NM

34.60

-103.22

COOP

291963

82.0°F

82.0°F

1989

58

PORTALES [ROOSEVELT COUNTY], NM

34.17

-103.35

COOP

297008

85.0°F

85.0°F

1974

96

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!