Welcome To Southeast New Mexico Weather.

Please View This Introductory Video Courtesy Of The Albuquerque National Weather Service Office Concerning:
Severe Thunderstorms In New Mexico.


Severe thunderstorms are defined by the National Weather Service as downdraft winds in excess of 58 miles an hour and/or hail 1 inch in diameter or greater. 
Severe thunderstorms are reported each year in all New Mexico counties. Severe thunderstorms peak in the east during April through June and statewide July through August.
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The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma issues a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH to give you advance notice that severe thunderstorms are possible in your area. This gives you time to make preliminary plans for moving to a safe location if a severe thunderstorm warning is issued. The SPC also issues convective outlooks (see this SPC link) for days 1 through 3.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING is an urgent announcement that a severe thunderstorm has been reported or is imminent and warns you to take cover. Severe th…

Please View This Introductory Video Courtesy Of The Albuquerque National Weather Service Office Concerning:
Tornadoes In New Mexico & Tornado Safety.


A tornado is defined as a violently rotating column of air that is touching the ground. Tornado wind speeds vary from 40 miles an hour for the weakest up to 300 miles an hour or greater for the most violent.Tornadoes are most common in eastern New Mexico in the spring, but they can occur anywhere. There have been tornado deaths in western areas of the state and near mountain communities. Here's some facts ontornadoes (and hail) in New Mexico.
Photo Archive
TheStorm Prediction Centerin Norman, Oklahoma issues aTORNADO WATCHto give you advance notice that tornadoes are possible in your area. This gives you time to make preliminary plans for moving to a safe location if a tornado warning is issued.
ATORNADO WARNINGis an urgent announcement that a tornado has been reported or is imminent and warns you to take cover immediately. The following…

Please View This Special Web Video Courtesy
Of The Albuquerque National Weather Service Office.

Understanding Outlooks, Watches, & Warnings.



What Types of Severe Weather Can I Expect in New Mexico?
All 32 counties in New Mexico experience severe thunderstorms producing high winds, large hail, deadly lightning, and heavy rains at some time during the year.During the spring, from April through June, storms are at a peak mainly in the eastern areas of the state. Storms become more numerous statewide from July through August.Tornadoes have been verified in most New Mexico counties. The highest risk of tornadoes is in the east during April through July, but tornadoes are possible with any thunderstorm. New Mexico averages about 10 tornadoes in a year. For example, on October 21, 2010, a tornado tracked just north of Roswell. A significant tornado outbreak occured on May 23, 2010 across eastern Union County. http://www.srh.n…

Please View This Introductory Video Courtesy Of The Albuquerque National Weather Service Office Concerning:
Severe Weather Awareness Week In New Mexico.  

A Review Of Severe Weather For 2010.



The National Weather Service (NWS) designated March 27 - April 2, 2011 as New Mexico Severe Weather Awareness Week. This marks the annual campaign to promote severe thunderstorm, tornado and safety awareness across New Mexico.
The key to avoiding serious injury or death during a severe thunderstorm or tornado is to start well before severe weather strikes. Develop personal and community severe weather action plans, conduct drills to practice severe weather survival skills, and ensure that your local community has an adequate severe weather warning and reporting system. In addition, be familiar with the hazards that can occur in New Mexico. Learn basic severe weather safety rules and make sure to keep aware of the latest warning and forecast information.
After months of winter weather, Severe Weather Awa…

WRF 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast Map Valid At 12Z/6 AM MDT Thu.
Say goodbye to our chance for rain later this week. Instead of developing a closed low over eastern New Mexico by midweek, the latest model trends are forecasting a trough of low pressure to swing across the state. Bummer...I was really hoping for a thunderstorm or two across SE NM.
Today will be warm and breezy with southwesterly winds at around 20-25 mph with gusts up to around 35 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the local area today. Highs today will be in the mid-upper 80's.
Looking ahead to next weekend, it appears that we are going to go from spring to summer temperature wise. Last nights NWS forecast for Carlsbad was calling for a high temp next Sunday of 101. This mornings updated forecast is calling for a high of 97. I'm not ready for it to be that hot this early. Looks like it may be a long hot summer for us if this trend continues.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

This Mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast Map Valid At 6 AM MDT Thu Mar 31, 2011.
Warm Windy Weather Continues.
March started off fairly tranquil this year in southeastern New Mexico, but it appears that the Lion will roar as it ends the middle of this upcoming week. You remember the old saying right: "March  In Like A Lion...Out Like A Lamb", well this year it appears that it will be: "March In Like A Lamb...Out Like A Lion".
The GFS computer forecast model is the odd man out on forecasting this weeks strong storm that will impact the area by mid week. It continues to forecast a deeper, colder, and wetter storm than the ECMWF, which tracks the storm across the state as more of an open wave than a closed low like the GFS. This mornings run of the Canadian model interestingly enough is trending more towards the GFS solution.
If the GFS forecast model is correct, then we may have a shot at some rain locally by around Wednesday...maybe even a few thund…

Another Gorgeous SE NM Sunrise This Morning.
Another Reason Why I Love Living Here.


More Wind...More Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions.


This update is going to be fairly short...please see the links and graphicast maps on this web page for additional details concerning theRed Flag Warnings that are out for SE NM today, and the threat for a few supercell thunderstorms across parts of West Texas this afternoon and evening.
Once again the dryline wobbled back westward into southeastern New Mexico overnight, but will quickly mix eastward today, as a fairly strong southwesterly surface regime becomes established. Southwesterly wind gusts will kick up into the 30-40 mph range across the lower elevations of SE NM this afternoon.
A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains for this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 30-40 mph with gusts near 60 mph.
So anothercritically dangerous fire weather setup is on tap for us. Even s…

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them. Surface Map Forecast Valid At 6 PM Thu Mar 24, 2011. SPC Fire Weather Outlook Valid For Thu Mar 24, 2011. WRF 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast Map  Valid At 6 PM MDT Thu Mar 24, 2011.
Fire Weather Watch For Thursday! Critically Dangerous Fire Conditions.
Peak Wind Gusts Reported Tuesday-
San Augustin Pass - E Of Las Cruces 65 mph Guadalupe Pass 55 mph Bowl Raws - Just N Of Guadalupe Pk 55 mph Artesia Airport 52 mph Carlsbad Airport 50 mph Dunken Raws 50 mph Queen Raws 50 mph 2 SW Tatum 49 mph Smokey Bear Raws - Near Ruidoso 49 mph Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns Nat'l Park 46 mph Caprock Raws 45 mph
It seems like the wind, dust, and fire weather threat will never end across southeastern New Mexico and west Texas. Eventually it will but not anytime soon. The latest La Nina outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is calling for the continued weakening of the current ongoing La Nina, with the possibility of the return to Neutral Conditions by June. 
Meanwhile, the p…

Surface Map Forecast At Noon Today.
Peak Wind Gusts On Monday-
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 70 mph San Augustin Pass - E of Las Cruces 68 mph Dunken Raws 54 mph Bowl Raws - N of Guadalupe Pk 53 mph Pinery Raws - Pine Springs 51 mph Smokey Bear Raws - Near Ruidoso 49 mph 8-Mile Draw Raws 46 mph Roswell Airport 46 mph 2 SW Tatum 42 mph Mescal Raws - Near Mescalero 40 mph
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High Wind Warning Guadalupe Mtn's Valid Until 6 PM MDT Today SW Winds 35-45G65 mph.
Wind Advisory! Lincoln-Chaves-Eddy-Lea Counties Valid Until 7 PM MDT Today SW Winds 25-40G55 mph  Areas Of Blowing Dust May  Reduce The Visibility Down To Less Than 1/2 A Mile. 
Red Flag Warning Today! Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions Potential For Wind Driven Fires
At sunrise this morning an upper-level trough of low pressure was easing into western New Mexico. This trough will continue to move eastward today across the state. A deep surface low was locate…

Click On The Photos To Enlarge Them.

Supermoon Rises Over Carlsbad, NM 3-19-2011.
High Wind Warning Lincoln County! Valid 11 AM - 8 PM Today. SW Winds Increasing To 30-45G55-70 MPH.
Wind Advisory Chaves County. Valid 11 AM - 8 PM Today. SW Winds 25-40G55 MPH.
High Wind Watch Guadalupe Mtn's Tue! SW Winds 35-45G60 MPH.
Red Flag Warning SE NM & W TX Today! Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions! Please Refrain From All Outdoor Activity That Involves The Use Of Sparks Or Flame. Potential For Wind Driven Fires.
Record Heat Continues.
You would think that it is late April in southeastern New Mexico by the way the thermometer has been acting the past several days. Several stations have tied or set new daily high temperature records the past several days and will likely do so again today. Our afternoon highs are forecast to be in the mid 90's today.
As of 6 AM this morning, the dryline had backed westward to Carlsbad, which was reporting a dew point temperature of 52. It will mix eastward …

March 16, 2011. 16 March 2011LatLonASOS/
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CARLSBAD FAA AP [EDDY COUNTY], NM (KCNM)32.34-104.26ASOS29147590.0°F86.0°F