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Supermoon Rises Over Carlsbad, NM 3-19-2011.
Valid 11 AM - 8 PM Today.
SW Winds Increasing To 30-45G55-70 MPH.
Valid 11 AM - 8 PM Today.
SW Winds 25-40G55 MPH.
SW Winds 35-45G60 MPH.
Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions!
Please Refrain From All Outdoor Activity
That Involves The Use Of Sparks Or Flame.
Potential For Wind Driven Fires.
Record Heat Continues.
You would think that it is late April in southeastern New Mexico by the way the thermometer has been acting the past several days. Several stations have tied or set new daily high temperature records the past several days and will likely do so again today. Our afternoon highs are forecast to be in the mid 90's today.
As of 6 AM this morning, the dryline had backed westward to Carlsbad, which was reporting a dew point temperature of 52. It will mix eastward today as strong mid-level winds begin to mix downward to the surface. It will back westward once again this evening, and may help produce a few scattered thunderstorms in SE NM late this afternoon and early this evening. The best chances for any thunderstorms in SE NM would bear near the state line this afternoon, and maybe across Eddy County this evening. Our chances of rain are only around 20%.
A strong upper-level trough of low pressure is located just off the southern California Coast early this morning. It is forecast to swing eastward and will move across the state tomorrow afternoon.
Strong mid-level winds will mix downward to the surface today to help produce a breezy day across the local area. Southerly to southwesterly winds of 20-30G40 mph are expected across the southeastern Plains this afternoon. Chaves County will experience higher winds which may gust up to the 40-55 mph range today. See the Wind Advisory posted above for more details.
Slight Risk Of Severe Weather.
Dryline sloshes eastward to the state line today.
Low-level jet increases across W TX this afternoon.
Surface Based Cape Values near 1,000 j/kg east of the dryline.
Steep Mid-level Lapse Rates Of Around 8 c/km.
0-6 KM Bulk Shear Wind Speeds Near 50 Knots.
A few scattered thunderstorms may break out along and east of the dryline late this afternoon and early this evening. A few of these could possibly become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall. The most favored area for this activity will be over the Lower Trans Pecos Region of West Texas, and in the Big Bend area.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!