Showing posts from July, 2011

Lookout Fire Complex Queen, NM

Click On The Photos To Enlarge Them. Looking South Towards The Dark Canyon Repeater 7-24-2011. T-Storm West Of The Queen, NM VFD 7-25-2011. Raindrops & Puddles In Queen, NM 7-25-2011. Pouring Rain In Queen, NM 7-26-2011. Its Raining...Play Time. 7-25-2011. Eddy County EM Joel Arnwine...Its Wet Out There. 7-25-2011. Its Raining...Who Wants To Play With Me? 7-25-2011. Watching Radar...Lookout Fire Complex Queen, NM 7-26-2011.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

It Rained In The Pecos Valley!

Rain In The Sacramento Mountains.
Click On The Photos To Enlarge Them. Life giving rains return to the Sacramento Mountains this month. Looking west towards the Dunken area. Low clouds & fog shroud the mountain tops during an afternoon t-storm in the Sacramento-Weed areas. Cloudcroft's namesake. You would think this was a fall morning shot but it wasn't. It  was taken near Sacramento, NM on the afternoon of 7-22-11. Raindrops & puddles...A welcome site. Only a trickle now...but this arroyo can become a raging torrent  during flash flood events.  Mountain runoff near Weed, NM 7-22-11.
Selected Rainfall Totals Across SE NM. (Ending At 7 AM MDT Today).
Chaves County-
8-Mile Draw Raws .28" 7.6 NNW Roswell .20" Roswell Climate .05" Roswell Arpt ASOS .03"
Eddy County-
Queen Raws .77" 0.9 NE Lakewood .52" 2.0 N Downtown Carlsbad .48" Downtown Carlsbad - OEM Bldg .45" 33.3 WSW Carlsbad - Queen .31" 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad .30" 2.6 NNW Downtown Carlsbad

Will We Get Rain From TS Don?

Tropical Storm Don - T-Storms - Unrelenting Heat.
Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them. Water Vapor Satellite Image At 4:45 AM MDT.
Early this morning a Tropical Upper Level Low was located over SE Chihuahua, Mexico, and was lifting slowly off to the NNW. This feature will enhance the chances for  t-storms across the area today, along with residual  outflow boundaries from yesterday's crop of t-storms.
NHC IR Satellite Image Of TS Don At 4:45 AM MDT.
Atlantic Floater 1 (Funktop) Image Of TS Don At 4:45 AM MDT.
NHC Forecast Track Of Tropical Storm Don.
NWS HPC 1 -3 Day Precipitation Forecast. Valid 6 AM Today - 6 AM Monday.
Tropical Storm Don.
At 3 AM MDT, Tropical Storm Donwas located 290miles southeast of Corpus Christi,Texas, or about 245 miles east of Brownsville, Texas. He continues moving off to the WNW at 14 mph. His central pressure remains at 1000 MB's/29.53". Don could undergo some additional strengthening today, before making landfall between Corpus Christi, and Brownsville,Texas…

Summer Heat & Tropical Storm Don.

Tropical Storm Don.
Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them. Atlantic Floater 1 (Rainbow) Satellite Image Of TS Don.
Taken At 6:15 AM MDT This Morning. NHC Forecast Track Of Tropical Storm Don.
Map Is Courtesy Of The Corpus Christi NWS Office.
NWS HPC 4-5 Day Precipitation Forecast. Valid 6 AM MDT Today - 6 AM MDT Tue Aug 2, 2011. Please note that this precipitation forecast (map above) will change daily as new model data becomes available.
Tropical Storm Donwas located 545 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, Texas as of 6 AM MDT this morning. He is moving off to the WNW at 10 mph. He has sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts. His central pressure is down to  1000 MB/29.53".  
The models are having fits with Don. His forecast movement off to the WNW or NW seems ok for now. Where they are  struggling is whether or not he will strengthen rapidly and become a Hurricane, or remain a Tropical Storm. Please see the latest NHC updates for the latest on Don.
At this time, it appears that there is a reasonable chan…


Update 3:15 PM MDT.

Tropical Storm Don Forms.
Invest 90 Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Don.

Invest 90 Strengthening.
Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them. The NHC Gives Invest 90 An 80% Chance Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone Within 48 Hours. An Air Force Reserve Hunter Aircraft Will Investigate This System Today.
IR Satellite Image Of Invest 90 At 5:15 AM MDT.
06Z/Midnight Hurricane Models Forecast Tracks.
Its important to note that the model forecast tracks above will change with each new run. There is a high degree of uncertainty concerning the future tracks and strength of this potential tropical storm. Please refer to the National Hurricane Centerfor the latest official forecasts and potential tracks concerning this system.
Map Is Courtesy Of The Corpus Chrisiti, TX NWS Office.
I am keeping a close watch on a potential tropical storm that is developing near Cuba. This system will move into the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of …

New Kid On The Block?

Invest #90.
Click On The Images To Enlarge Them. IR Satellite Image Of Invest #90 At 7:45 AM MDT This Morning.
NHC Center Watching Invest #90.
Possible Future Tracks Of Invest #90?
There has been very little to talk about locally concerning our  weather. Hot weather will continue to dominate our headlines this week with afternoon high temps in the 100 - 105 range. These temps are getting really old...I'm ready for fall.
Hit and miss t-storms will continue to dot the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Captian Mountains each afternoon into the upcoming weekend. Locally heavy downpours will be possible with any of these storms. 
A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect for Lincoln County,  starting at noon today and continuing into this evening.  Locally heavy downpours from this afternoons crop of t-storms may cause localized flash flooding over and near the burn scar areas near Ruidoso, NM.
I will be keeping an eye on the latest tropical wave  to flare up just south of Cuba.This is Invest #90. It has the potenti…

Two Week Outlook.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them. 6 - 10 Day Temperature Outlook.

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook.
8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook.

8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook.
US Drought Monitor. 

Percent Of Long -Term Precipitation, 6 - Months.
January - June, 2011.

US Drought Outlook.

Lookout Complex

Posted on July 23, 2011 by Joel Arnwine LOOKOUT COMPLEX UPDATE Lookout Complex – Fire Information – (575) 652-5001 Sunday, July 24, 2011-6:00 a.m.                     Information Officers: Loretta Benavidez,  Joel Arnwine, Linda Wallace Detected:  July 20, 2011                                         Cause:  Lightning                                   Containment: 35 percent                                        Location: Southwest of Carlsbad Fuel Type: Pinion juniper, brush and grass     Terrain:  Steep and Rugged

Roswell Got Wet Last Night.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them. Water Vapor Satellite Image At 8:15 AM This Morning.
This mornings water vapor satellite image above, shows the summer monsoonal flow continuing to stream northeastward out of Mexico and across New Mexico.
IR Satellite Image Of H. Dora At 8 AM MDT This Morning.
Hurricane Dora reached Category 4 status yesterday with sustained winds of 155 mphalong with higher gusts. This morning she is a Category 1 with sustained winds of 85 mph. Dora is forecast to continue to rapidly weaken as she moves off to the NW at 9 mph over colder waters.
NHC Forecast Track Of H. Dora.
This Mornings NWS HPC 5-Day Precipitation Forecast. Valid From 6 AM Today - 6 AM Wed.
Today Will Be A Repeat Of Yesterdays Weather.
Not much has changed in the overall setup from yesterday. Scattered t-storms are forecast to once again develop later this afternoon, and continue well into the evening hours. These storms will be of the hit and miss variety so not everyone will see rainfall. This pattern will c…

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