Happy 4th of July!

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Valid At 00Z/6 PM MDT Today.

The mid-upper level ridge of high pressure is centered just
a little to the east of Grand Junction Colorado this morning.
It is forecast to wobble a little to the east today, and will be
centered over north-central Colorado this afternoon.

A surge of monsoonal moisture continues to work it way
northward out of Mexico and into Arizona this morning. A
stronger surge of this moisture may work into New Mexico
by this weekend if the mid-upper level ridge of high pressure
can shift far enough to the east.

Valid From 6 AM Today - 6 AM Wed, Jul 6, 2011.

Slight Chance For T-Storms Today Into This Evening.

A weak mid-level shortwave trough of low pressure is
embedded within the ridge, and stretches southwestward
from the Texas Panhandle to SE NM this morning.

This feature will combine with outflow boundaries left over
from last nights t-storm activity over eastern New Mexico,
to help kick off a few isolated to widely scattered t-storms
across SE NM today into this evening.

Our chances of seeing measurable rainfall across SE NM
are 10% - 20% today into tomorrow evening. Traditionally
if we do not see rain in SE NM by the 4th of July, then we
usually end up with a dry year. This is according to what
the old time ranchers and farmers claim anyway.

Although a widespread soaking rain is not in the cards for
the area today and tomorrow, a few isolated to widely scattered
t-storms will pop up across SE NM. The mountains will have the best
chances of seeing measurable rainfall.

Any t-storm that manages to form may produce wind gusts up to
50 mph, and occasional cloud to ground lightning strikes. Rainfall
totals should be less than a quarter of an inch with these storms.
However, isolated heavier totals will be possible with the stronger

Our afternoon high temperatures across SE NM will range from
the upper 90's to near 100 today and tomorrow. Highs temps will
creep up a few degrees Wednesday into the end of the week
and will range from 100 -105.

A stronger surge of monsoonal moisture is still being forecast
by some of the models for the state by this upcoming weekend.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!


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