Summer Monsoon Brings Rains To NM This Weekend.
Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.
A sprawling mid-upper level ridge of high pressure was
centered near Cline's Corners at sunrise this morning. The
forecast models continue to indicate that the ridge will slide
slowly eastward each day into next week.
A Tropical Low (Tutt Low) was located southwest of New Orleans
this morning. This feature is forecast to move slowly westward
with time, and by Monday it should be centered over SE NM or
By Monday afternoon the center of the mid-upper level ridge of
high pressure is forecast to be located over the Mississippi Valley.
This will allow southerly winds to transport monsoonal moisture out
of Mexico and northward into New Mexico starting this weekend.
The Tropical Low (Tutt Low) is forecast to move inland over south
Texas this weekend, and then move westward towards SE NM
or W TX by Monday.
This feature is indicated on the map above by the circle with
an x in it near Jal, NM. This disturbance will help to destabilize the atmosphere
and bring additional sub-tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico,
into the local area next week.
Valid From 6 AM Today - 6 AM Wed Jul 13, 2011.
With the mid-upper level ridge of high pressure sliding
off to the east by Monday, southerly winds are forecast
to gradually shift the monsoonal flow of moisture eastward
out of Arizona, and into New Mexico this weekend. This surge
of sub-tropical moisture will then slowly work its way eastward
and into SE NM next week.
The Guadalupe - Sacramento - Capitan Mountains-
Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
the mountains Sunday.These storms should then increase in aerial
coverage and intensity, Monday into Wednesday of next week. Locally
heavy rainfall and flash flooding may be a possibility with these storms
Southeastern New Mexico Plains-
Hot and dry weather will remain in the cards for us for the weekend.
Our afternoon high temps today and tomorrow are forecast to range
from 102 - 105. Sunday's highs are forecast to range from 100 - 102.
By Monday our high temps will begin to cool slightly with an increase in
cloud cover and humidity. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 90's,
by Tuesday we should be in the mid 90's.
By Sunday evening we could see an isolated t-storm or two drift off
of the mountains and into the Pecos Valley, but our chances of this
happening remain pretty low at this time.
We should see an increase in rain showers and t-storms across
the southeastern New Mexico Plains, from Monday into Wednesday
of next week. With the monsoonal flow shifting eastward into the local
area next week, most of us should see at least some measurable rainfall.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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