My Current Weather

Monday, July 11, 2011

Best Chance For Rain In Months?

Drought Conditions Continue To Worsen.

On and on it goes. Just when it seems like it can't get any drier, 
it does. Nearly every single reporting station across the area
has failed to measure any precipitation for the first ten days
of this month.

 There have been a few stations in the mountains that have
managed to pick up some rainfall, but not many, and not much.
  I am amazed at how dry and dead the countryside is across SE NM.

Click On The Photos To Enlarge Them.

I took this photo yesterday afternoon about 20 miles west of
Roswell, NM, along US Hwy 70, looking northwest at
 Capitan Mountain. Even the Cholla cactus is dying in the
 extreme heat and drought conditions in SE NM.

This photo was taken just east of Picacho, NM, along US
Hwy 70, between Roswell and Ruidoso. Its part of the burn
scar from the Donaldson Fire a couple of weeks ago.
The hillside was as brown as the grass before the fire.

Now The Bad News.

 There is a reasonable chance that we may see a
 return to La Nina conditions this coming fall and winter.
 I am not surprised by this since droughts can, and have
lasted several years in a row, many times in our past history. 
For the latest update on this please click on this link-


Some Relief This Week.

So much for the tropical low being located near SE NM today.
As of 11 AM this morning it was centered just south of Amarillo,
Texas and continues moving slowly northward.

Monsoonal moisture continues to stream northward out of
Mexico and into Arizona this morning. This is indicated by
the grey shading on the map above.

 Most of the models have this flow shifting slowly eastward
 this week into western and  central New Mexico.
 These areas stand the best chances of seeing 
beneficial rainfall totals this week.

Valid From 6 AM This Morning - 6 AM Saturday.

Southeastern New Mexico should remain on the eastern 
fringes of the monsoonal flow this week. We do have a 
shot at seeing scattered t-storms popping up over the 
area, with the best chances occurring tomorrow into
Wednesday evening. Our chances of seeing
 measurable rainfall today into Wednesday 
evening range from 20% -30%.

Current model forecasts give the Guadalupe, Sacramento, 
and Capitan mountains the best chances of rainfall this week.
A few of the heavier t-storms may produce locally heavy rainfall,
which may lead to localized flash flooding, especially over and
near the recent burn scar areas.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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