Severe T-Storms Return Wednesday & Thursday.

May 28, 2023.

Looking At Guadalupe Peak.

From Near The NM/TX State Line.

Severe T-Storms Return Wednesday & Thursday.

NWS Albuquerque Severe Weather Outlooks.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 2 Outlook.

(Wednesday, May 31, 2023).

NWS Albuquerque 7-Day Forecast 

High Temps & Precipitation Chances.

Some locations in southeastern New Mexico and parts of West Texas may reach the century mark this afternoon, for the first time this year. In contrast highs across the southeastern plains look to only be in the 80's Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday. 

Thunderstorms return to the eastern half of New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. Some of these will become severe especially on Wednesday. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, an isolated tornado or two, deadly cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause localized flash flooding will all be possible. The areas with the highest chances of seeing severe weather will be those highlighted in the "Slight Risk - yellow shade" category on Wednesday.

As a series of mid/upper level disturbances swing across the region this weekend our chances for more widespread thunderstorm activity increases along with a cool down in temps. The best chances for measurable rainfall for the mountains will be this weekend. 

Wet & Stormy May For Many.

Last week was a rough one for many in northeastern, eastern, and parts of southeastern New Mexico. Severe thunderstorms were numerous. A couple of tornadoes were reported and filmed. So far the largest reported hail stone that I can find in the storm reports was the apple size (3.0" to 3.5" in diameter) report 7 miles west-northwest of Encino at 7:05 PM MDT on Friday the 26th. 

Severe thunderstorm wind gusts were impressive as well especially on Wednesday the 24th. The TORUS Mobile MesoNet measured a gust to 92 mph in Grady (Curry County). A gust to 84 mph was measured by a hand held anemometer 11 miles northwest of Pleasant Hill (Curry County), and a gust to 83 mph was measured at Cannon Air Force Base by their ASOS. Not to be left out was the 76 mph gust measured by the Tucumari ASOS.

Selected Rainfall Totals For May 2023.

HRAP 30-Day Rainfall Totals.

(April 30th - May 29th).

New Mexico CoCoRaHS Month-To-Date Rainfall Totals.

(May 1st - May 29th).

Selected New Mexico MesoWest 30-Day Rainfall Totals.

(April 30th - May 29th).

Davis WeatherLink Map.

(2 Bar Ranch May Rainfall Total).

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

This Weeks Storm Summary - Another Round Of Severe T-Storms Today Into Tonight!

Friday, May 26, 2023.

Looking South From 7 Miles Southwest Of Lakewood, NM

At A Severe Thunderstorm Just East Of Guadalupe Pass, TX.

Another Round Of Severe T-Storms Today!

Scattered thunderstorms are once again forecast to develop along the east slopes of the northern-central-south-central mountains then move east and southeast across the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern plains of New Mexico.

Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, and deadly cloud to ground lightning will all be possible with the stronger thunderstorms (supercells). A few tornadoes will also be possible. 

A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for parts of northeast and east-central New Mexico. 

NWS Midland.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook.

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0742 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023

   Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across
   much of the High Plains this afternoon and evening.  Large hail and
   severe gusts are the primary hazards.

   ...Synopsis...
   A Rex block persists from the Great Lakes to the Southeast, and as
   part of the blocking pattern, a baroclinic cyclone will drift
   northward toward the SC coast.  The surface warm sector will remain
   offshore until later tonight, at which time the cyclone will be
   slowly weakening.  Given the weakening flow aloft with time and poor
   phasing of stronger low-level shear with greater surface-based
   buoyancy, the threat for surface-based supercells to move inland
   appears low.  Farther west, weak lee troughing will persist across
   the length of the High Plains from eastern NM to eastern MT, as
   subtle/embedded shortwave troughs northeastward and northward across
   the High Plains.

   ...Northern High Plains this afternoon/evening...
   Similar to yesterday, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form
   this afternoon near the lee trough and spread northeastward before
   weakening by late evening.  Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000
   J/kg) and effective bulk shear of 25-35 kt will favor a mix of
   multicell clusters and some marginal supercells initially, with
   storms growing upscale into bands during the evening.  Occasional
   large hail and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will be the main
   threats.

   ...Southern High Plains through early tonight...
   A couple of thunderstorm clusters have persisted since last night -
   one is east of Lubbock and the other is along the NM/TX border west
   of Amarillo.  These storms will slowly weaken while moving
   southeastward the remainder of the morning, with residual clouds and
   outflow slowing surface heating from northwest TX into the TX
   Panhandle.  Farther west and southwest, boundary-layer dewpoints in
   the mid 50s to low 60s persist across eastern NM and southwest TX. 
   Surface heating in cloud breaks will again result in moderate-strong
   buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg), though vertical shear will be a
   little weaker compared to the previous couple of days.  Scattered
   thunderstorms are expected to form along the east slopes of the
   higher terrain, as well as the weak lee trough and any lingering
   outflow boundaries later this afternoon, and spread eastward into
   this evening.  The moisture/buoyancy and modest vertical shear will
   support the potential for some large hail with initial supercells,
   and isolated severe outflow gusts with any upscale growth into
   clusters.

   ..Thompson/Broyles.. 05/27/2023

MRMS 72-Hour Rainfall Totals.

(As Of 9 AM MDT Saturday, May 27, 2023). 

New Mexico CoCoRaHS 7-Day Rainfall Totals.

(As Of 9 AM MDT Saturday, May 27, 2023). 

New Mexico MesoWest 72-Hour Rainfall Totals.

(As Of 9 AM MDT Saturday, May 27, 2023). 

New Mexico MesoWest 7-Day Rainfall Totals.

(As Of 9 AM MDT Saturday, May 27, 2023). 

Midland NWS Dual Pol Doppler Radar Snapshot.

(Using GRLevel3_2.0).

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Reports.

Wednesday, May 24th.

Thursday, May 25th.

Friday, May 26th.

Epic Severe Weather Bust Yesterday!

Yesterday's forecast severe weather outbreak was an epic bust for the southeastern plains. A Tornado Watch was issued for a large area of the eastern one half of the state from 2:20 PM MDT through 10:00 PM MDT. Severe weather did occur in parts of the watch area but overall it was a no go for the southeastern plains. 

One severe thunderstorm blew up fast just east of Guadalupe Pass as it raced northeast at 40 mph around 9 PM last night. A Severe T-Storm Warning was issued for the Whites City, Black River Village, Carlsbad, Otis, Loving areas. Within thirty minutes the storm had all but completely collapsed. 

The past three days have been very active as far as severe thunderstorms are concerned across northeastern and eastern New Mexico. Clovis was hit particularly hard Thursday evening with multiple reports of hail hen egg size, along with a severe thunderstorm wind gust of 83 mph measured at the Cannon Air Force Base. Flash flooding has been an issue in some of these areas also.

Looking at the 72-hour rainfall totals from the MRMS site it is very apparent that excessive rainfall has occurred in some of these areas also. Just southeast of Tucumcari rainfall estimates exceed 12". However I don't believe that this is accurate. I think that the hail has contaminated the radar rainfall estimates in that location causing the radar to over estimate the rainfall that fell. From online available reports 4" to 6" totals have been reported in a few spots. The Clovis MesoNet Station is reporting 7.20" of rainfall over the past seven days!

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Dangerous Severe Weather Threat Today Into Tonight!

Friday, May 19, 2023.

Looking East - Hail Shaft.

Northeast Of Artesia, New Mexico.

Blog Updated At 9:50 AM MDT Friday, May 26, 2023.

Dangerous Severe Weather Threat Today Into Tonight!

A potentially dangerous day ahead severe weather-wise for parts of eastern and especially southeastern New Mexico. As well as nearby West Texas.

Make sure you stay alert and pay attention to the weather. Have multiple ways to receive severe weather information. 

Heads up southeastern New Mexico! Today will be one of those days that you must be weather-aware, especially this afternoon into tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of eastern and southeastern New Mexico in the "Enhanced" severe weather threat category. This does not happen very often but when it does we usually get clobbered with severe thunderstorms. 

Scattered thunderstorms will dot the landscape today into tonight. Some of these will become severe and be capable of producing:

Tornadoes!

Large To Very Large Hail - Apple Size (3" in Diameter).

Damaging Thunderstorm Wind Gusts Of 70 MPH!

Frequent Deadly Cloud To Ground Lightning!

Locally Heavy Rainfall And Flash Flooding!

Splitting supercell thunderstorms will be possible. Typically the storm that splits to the left becomes the prolific "hailer" producing large to very large hail. The storm to the right or the right mover typically is the stronger of the two types, and will be capable of producing all modes of severe weather especially tornadoes. 

Any thunderstorm that develops today will have the ability and potential to quickly become severe. Of most concern will be the right moving supercell thunderstorms that will be moving off to the east and southeast. Classic supercell thunderstorms with a few High Precipitation (HP) supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop. Later today; especially this evening into tonight, a large complex of severe thunderstorms called a mesoscale complex system (MCS) may develop and affect a large part of the local area. 

NWS Midland.

NWS Albuquerque.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1 Severe Weather Outlooks.

Today's Categorical Outlook.

An Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) of severe weather is forecast this afternoon/evening across parts of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. A couple of tornadoes, very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and severe thunderstorm winds of 60 to 70 mph are possible.

Today's Tornado Outlook.

Today's T-Storm Damaging Wind Outlook.

Today's Hail Outlook.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1 Discussion.

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

   Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN CO TO SOUTHEASTERN MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of tornadoes, very large hail to 3 inches in diameter and
   severe thunderstorm winds of 60 to 70 mph are possible this
   afternoon/evening across southeast New Mexico and west Texas.  Large
   hail and a few severe gusts will also be possible from northern
   Colorado to southeastern Montana.

   ...Southeast NM/southwest TX this afternoon/evening...
   A convective cluster is ongoing this morning across the TX South
   Plains. Outflow from this convection will help focus thunderstorm
   development this afternoon/evening, just east of the higher terrain.
    Within the southern stream, an embedded mid-upper speed max will
   move toward southern NM this afternoon, providing somewhat stronger
   deep-layer vertical shear/longer hodographs compared to the previous
   few days.  With boundary-layer dewpoints persisting in the 56-62 F
   range and daytime heating/mixing, MLCAPE will increase to 2000-2500
   J/kg with diminishing convective inhibition. 

   The storm environment this afternoon across southeast NM/southwest
   TX will be characterized by strong buoyancy and effective bulk shear
   in excess of 50 kt.  Long hodographs will favor splitting supercells
   capable of producing very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter,
   along with damaging winds.  There will be the potential for a couple
   of tornadoes where boundary-layer dewpoints remain near 60 F,
   especially where low-level hodograph curvature and SRH are greater
   near the modifying outflow boundary later this afternoon/evening. 
   Like previous days, there will be some potential for upscale growth
   into an east-southeastward moving cluster with some continuing
   severe hail/wind threat into early tonight across west central TX.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

May Has Been Wet For Some - Severe T-Storms Today.

Friday, May 19, 2023.

North Of Artesia, New Mexico.

Severe T-Storms This Afternoon & Evening!

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to fire along and east of the dryline this afternoon, evening, and tonight. Generally along and near a line roughly from Carlsbad-Roswell-Tucumcari. Some of these will be severe and capable of producing large to very large hail  (baseball size or larger). A few isolated tornadoes will also be possible with the stronger supercell thunderstorms. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, locally heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding will also be possible.  

 

May Has  Been Wet For Some.

May Rainfall Totals To Date.

(May 1st - May 22, 2023).

HRAP 30_Day Rainfall Totals.

(April 22 - May 22, 2023).

New Mexico May 2023 CoCoRaHS May 2023 Rainfall Totals.

(May 1st - May 22, 2023).

Weather Underground May, 2023 Rainfall Totals.

(May 1st - May 2, 2023).

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.