Severe T-Storms & Drought Relief!
Bulldog Bowl - Artesia, New Mexico.
ECMWF 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Surface Map Forecast.
Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Monday.
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.
Severe T-Storms & Drought Relief.
A surface cold front draped across the northern third of New Mexico this Friday morning will slide slowly south today, tonight, and into Saturday morning. Bringing much cooler temps to the area this weekend into the first of next week. It is then forecast to become stationary over West Texas this weekend. Low-level southeasterly flow from the Gulf of Mexico will increase across the area tonight into the weekend behind the front.
At the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere this morning a strong closed low was centered over northeastern Colorado with a developing cutoff low over the central Baja area. Multiple disturbances are forecast to eject into the area from this cutoff low over the weekend.
Conditions favorable for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are shaping up tonight into the first of next week and beyond. Some of these thunderstorms will become severe late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible with these thunderstorms. The most likely areas to see severe weather are the southeastern plains and parts of West Texas late this afternoon and into tonight.
Overall this pattern change indicates the chance for widespread beneficial moderate to heavy rainfall from tonight into next week. Varying storm total rainfall amounts are forecast by the various computer model forecasts but generally I think we may see totals in the 1" to 2" range over the Sacramento, Guadalupe, and Capitan mountains tonight into the weekend. Across the southeastern plains totals may be in the 2" to 4" range. Locally heavy totals are certainly possible especially with thunderstorms. A welcome relief for dry eyes and the countryside for sure!
There is the possibility of localized flash flooding with these heavier/stronger thunderstorms from tonight into next week. It's going to take a while to saturate our soils given the ongoing severe drought. Of particular concern will be the burn scar areas in the mountains which will potentially flood much quicker than surrounding areas.
Currently our chances from measurable rainfall across the mountains tonight through Monday range from 30% to 70%. Across the southeastern plains our chances of seeing measurable rainfall are in the 40% to 80% range.
Periods of low clouds and fog may develop late at night and into the early morning hours at times behind the front with the moist southeasterly upslope flow.With the cloud cover, rains, and frontal passage our daytime temperatures will cool down. After another day in the low 90's today the southeastern plains will see the 70's Saturday into the first of next week. A few pockets of 60's for high temps are possible Saturday.
Highs in the mountains will range from the 70's today in the Capitan, Ruidoso, Mayhill, Sacramento/Weed/Pinon,Timbron areas to the mid 60's in the Cloudcroft, Silver Lake, Sunspot areas. Highs this weekend into the first of next week behind the front will be in the 50's and 60's.
Stay weather alert during this period as changing conditions and forecasts are expected.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.