Heavy To Very Heavy Rainfall Possible Monday Into Wednesday.

The Carlsbad Airport ASOS reported a high temperature yesterday of 101ºF. Thunderstorms quickly formed on radar early last evening stretching from south to north along the Pecos Valley from just south of Lakewood to south of Carlsbad near the NM/TX State line. At 9:18 PM MDT the Carlsbad Airport ASOS clocked a thunderstorm wind gust of 68 mph with .17" of rainfall from the storm. The public in Otis, southeast of Carlsbad reported just a little over an inch of rain, and .50" in Sunnyview in southeastern Carlsbad. We picked up .04" here on the northwest end of town. 

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Today.

One more day of triple degree heat before we start a cool down Monday. A slow moving cold front is forecast to drop southward the eastern plains on Monday and into Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas by Monday night. This cooler air mass aided by rain cooled air along and behind the frontal boundary will drop our daytime high temps down into the 70's and 80's Tuesday and Wednesday. 

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures Monday.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Monday.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures Tuesday.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Tuesday.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures Wednesday.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Wednesday.

Thunderstorms To Produce Heavy To Possibly Very Heavy Rainfall.

(Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday).

Heavy to very heavy rainfall some of which may possibly be torrential in nature is forecast to fall over the local area beginning Monday afternoon into Wednesday. Maybe even into the end of the week. This mornings run of the NAM-WRF computer forecast model depicts excessive rainfall along the front boundary from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Localized totals of  5" - 7" are forecast around the Halfway area northeast of Carlsbad, 5" - 6" around Hope and 5" around Dunken. It also forecasts 2.5" for the Carlsbad area. Widespread 2" - 4" totals look possible for many areas. 

NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
(Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday).

This mornings run of the NAM model has a similar forecast for the local area.

(Carlsbad, NM).

Bufkit Model Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
(Roswell, NM).

Bufkit Model Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
(Hobbs, NM).

Iowa State Bufkit Metogram forecasts depict some pretty impressive rainfall totals locally Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Last nights NAM forecast pinpointed a 7.00" rainfall bulls eye over Hobbs while this mornings NAM model forecast produces 3.90" in Carlsbad. 

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Northeastern New Mexico today through late tonight. Additional flash watches may be issued further southward including parts of the local area today or on Monday. 

Slow moving sometimes training thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy to very heavy rainfall over the area Monday into Wednesday. The heaviest rains are currently forecast to fall Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Don't focus so much on the exact rainfall totals depicted above nor their exact forecast locations by the models. These forecasts will likely change between today and Wednesday. 

What is important to remember is that heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a threat over the area starting Monday. Some locations may very well experience excessive rainfall totals and some of these totals could exceed 4.00". Remember that Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas has a long history of flash flooding and sadly this includes flash flood deaths. Flash flooding is always a dangerous and life threatening event but this is even more true at night when it is harder to determine the depth of water flowing over roadways, city streets, ditches, and arroyos. Most flash flood deaths occur at night and many of them are in vehicles.



The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Continued Hot Today Into The Weekend - A Break Next Week.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures Anomalies Today.

Parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas will top out today at or just above 100ºF. On average these readings will be about 5-degrees above normal for the date. Saturday and Sunday will see similar high temperatures. 

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures Wednesday.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures Anomalies Wednesday.

A weak cold front is forecast to approach the area Monday as the center of the upper level high pressure shifts northwest into the Central Rockies next week. This will allow a decent fetch of low level upslope flow the east and southeast into the state and turn the flow aloft to the northwest and north. Meaning that these weak cold fronts will have a better chance to enter the area and the steering winds aloft will drive thunderstorms off of the mountains and southeastward out onto the plains. 

By early next week we should cool down enough with the added moisture and a cooler and more unstable air mass in place that our high temps will drop down to near 90ºF Tuesday, and the upper 80's on Wednesday. 

Increasing Chances For Thunderstorms & Cooler Next Week.

The long range models are picking up on this trend and this is reflected in the Weather Prediction Centers (WPC) total rainfall forecast depicted above. Note that the heaviest rains are forecast to fall next week along and near the cold front. The further south the cooler air can come the better our chances of seeing higher rainfall totals locally. 

Rainfall Totals Close To Average So Far This Year.

(Jan 1st -Jul 27th, 2017).

Local Year-To-Date Rainfall Anomalies.
(Jan 29th -Jul 27th, 2017).

Rainfall so far this year in the region has been hit and miss with some areas above normal so far this year while other areas are below normal. Nothing unusual about that. Parts of the Sacramento and Guadalupe mountains are running below normal as well as parts of the Southeastern plains. 

Local Rainfall Totals & Averages.
(Year-To-Date Totals Verses Normal-To-Date Totals).
(Year-To-Date Is From Jan 1st - July 27th, 2017).

(1905 - 2017)

YTD- 8.85" Normal YTD- 8.71"
Wettest YTD Total In 1941- 28.13" 
Driest YTD Total In 1930- .39"

Roswell, NM.
(1893 - 2017)

YTD- 4.77" Normal YTD- 6.80"
Wettest YTD Total In 1941- 19.17" 
Driest YTD Total In 1893- .85" 

(1905 - 2017)

YTD- 5.86" Normal YTD- 6.27"
Wettest YTD Total In 1941- 19.76" 
Driest YTD Total In 1907- .26"

(1900 - 2017)

YTD- 4.98" Normal YTD- 6.71"
Wettest YTD Total In 1941- 21.41" 
Driest YTD Total In 1900- .50" 

Carlsbad, NM Airport.
(1930 - 2017)

YTD- 3.24" Normal YTD- 6.84"
Wettest YTD Total In 1992- 13.80" 
Driest YTD Total In 2011- .09"

Hobbs, NM.
(1913 - 2017)

YTD- 4.21" Normal YTD- 9.91"
Wettest YTD Total In 1992- 22.08" 
Driest YTD Total In 2011- Trace

Tatum, NM.
(1919 - 2017)

YTD- 3.68" Normal YTD- 8.93"
Wettest YTD Total In 1941- 23.88" 
Driest YTD Total In 1928- .61"

Elk, NM.
(1895 - 2017)

YTD- 7.73" Normal YTD- 7.93"
Wettest YTD Total In 1905- 27.81" 
Driest YTD Total In 1910- Trace

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Summertime Thunderstorms & Rainfall Totals.

Looking Southwest From Just North Of Whites City - South Of Carlsbad, NM.

Looking West At Guadalupe Peak Just South Of The NM/TX State Line.

Looking West At The Hidalgo Gas Plant 18 Miles West Of Orla, TX. 

Summer Thunderstorms Bring Life To The Desert Southwest.

(January 1st - July 25th, 2017).


(July 1st - July 25th).

Boiling upwards creating great white towers during the 90 to 100-degree heat and humidity of the valley floors, aided by the upslope effect of the mountains, these majestic storms bring not only relief  from the heat of the summer, but life to the desert in the summertime. For most of us the majority of our annual precipitation falls from these thunderstorms from May through September. This has been a good year for rainfall over most areas.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Very Heavy Rains Last Night In The Mesilla Valley South Of Las Cruces.

NWS HRAP 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.
(As Of 6 AM MDT This Morning).

(Ending At 8 AM MDT This Morning).

Just one thunderstorm unloading upon a small area can dump a lot of rain in a short period of time during the summertime in the Desert Southwest, New Mexico included. Thus the story last evening in the Mesilla Valley south of Las Cruces in Doña Ana County. CoCoRaHS Station Mesquite 3.1 Miles Northwest (NM-DA-312) reported a 24 hour total of 3.45". Just like California "It Never Rains In New Mexico - But Man When It Does, it Pours."

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

Current Temperatures

Current Wind Chill Temps

Regional Radar

NWS Forecast High Temps Today

NWS Forecast Low Temps Tonight

NWS Storm Total Precipitation Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS Midland Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

11-21-2022: World Premiere: Died Suddenly