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Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 14-Day Temperature Graph

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecasts.

NWS El Paso Regional Forecasts.

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecasts.

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Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Yesterday's Peak Wind Gusts - Winter Next Week?

October 24, 2021.
Cloudcroft, New Mexico.





Next Wednesday.


Next Thursday.


Next Friday.


ECMWF Snowfall Total Forecast.


Next Weeks Winter Weather?

A potential winter storm (our first for the season) is in the cards from the middle to the end of next week. Computer model forecasts indicate that a strong closed mid-upper level low may develop over the central plains of the U.S. next week. If so then this may send our first backdoor arctic cold front into the local area. Last night's European forecast model (ECMWF) forecasts light snow locally by the end of next week. You know the drill...it's way too early to get overly excited about this since we are a week to ten days away from the event. More on this later.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Windy & Dusty Today - Cooler The Rest Of The Week.

October 24, 2021.
Near Elk, New Mexico.


Valid At Midnight MDT Monday Night.

Valid At Midnight MDT Tonight.

Our long-awaited storm will move southeastward out of Nevada today and by midnight it will be centered across northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado. This northern track will make this storm a wind maker locally with little chance for precipitation. 


Analysis Valid At 3 AM MDT Tuesday Morning.

Forecast Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday Evening.

(Today - Wednesday).




Today.


Wednesday.


Thursday.


Friday.


NWS NDFD Forecast Low Temperatures.

Thursday Morning.


Friday Morning.


Windy & Dusty Today.

High Wind Warnings are in effect today for Eddy County, the Guadalupe Mountains, southwest Chaves County, Lincoln County, and Culberson County in West Texas. Wind Advisories are in effect today for the rest of the local area including eastern and southern New Mexico.

A strong Pacific cold front will move rapidly across New Mexico today from west to east. This combined with strong winds aloft and a tight surface pressure gradient will make for a windy and locally dusty day in Southeastern New Mexico.

Southwesterly to westerly winds will increase areawide this morning and ramp up by this afternoon. These winds will become sustained at around 25-40 mph with gusts near 50 to 60 mph across the lower elevations. 

Across the Guadalupe Mountains, these winds will become sustained at around 35 to 50 mph with gusts near 70 mph.

Localized areas of blowing dust will develop later this morning and increase in coverage this afternoon as the cold front approaches from the west. A widespread blowing dust event is not anticipated (as of 6:30 AM MDT this morning). But our normally dust-prone areas will experience sudden drops in the visibility at times down to less than one mile with little to no advanced warning. This will be especially true near and over freshly plowed or exposed farmland, open lots and fields, and road/highway construction sites. 



The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Sunday, October 24, 2021

Near Record Heat Monday - Windy Tuesday.

October 18, 20-21.
Carlsbad, New Mexico. 

Cirrocumulus is one of the three main genus-types of high-altitude tropospheric clouds, the other two being cirrus and cirrostratus.[3] They usually occur at an altitude of 5 to 12 km (16,000 to 39,000 ft). Like lower-altitude cumuliform and stratocumuliform clouds, cirrocumulus signifies convection. Unlike other high-altitude tropospheric clouds like cirrus and cirrostratus, cirrocumulus includes a small amount of liquid water droplets, although these are in a supercooled state. Ice crystals are the predominant component, and typically, the ice crystals cause the supercooled water drops in the cloud to rapidly freeze, transforming the cirrocumulus into cirrostratus. This process can also produce precipitation in the form of a virga consisting of ice or snow. Thus, cirrocumulus clouds are usually short-lived.[4] They usually only form as part of a short-lived transitional phase within an area of cirrus clouds and can also form briefly as a result of the breaking up of part of a cumulonimbus anvil.

Near Record Heat Monday - Windy Tuesday.


At Midnight Saturday Night.






NWS NDFD 3-Day Total Snowfall Forecast.



A very deep and unusually strong series of mid-upper level closed lows have been and will continue bringing record rainfall and snowfall to parts of the Pacific Northwest and California. Rainfall totals by the middle of this week in parts of northern California are forecast to be around a foot or more. Snowfall totals in the Sierra Nevada mountains will approach 6 feet. Highly unusual to see this strong of a storm this early in the fall. More likely to see this in mid to late winter. 

With a moderate La Nina event developing over the Pacific it will be interesting to see what unfolds for our winter here in the Desert Southwest and New Mexico. Typically we get left high and dry precipitation-wise with La Nina winters, but not every La Nina produces the same conditions. If this pattern of the northern storm track holds for the upcoming winter then we can expect to see a windy, dry, and dusty winter locally. Not to say that there won't be bouts of cold air invasions from the arctic. But the jury isn't out on this yet...too early I think to know for sure.


Valid At Midnight Tuesday.

As this storm moves southeast this week it will form a longwave trough of low pressure and a piece of this will break off and dive southeast into New Mexico Monday into Tuesday. Once again this incoming storm will take the northern route as it crosses the state. By around midnight Tuesday night, it currently is forecast to be centered in northeastern New Mexico. Current model forecasts call for windy and dusty conditions locally Tuesday with light rain showers and snow showers across northwestern and northern New Mexico. Snow levels will be high and around 9,000'.


Valid At 6 AM MDT Tuesday Morning.

A strong Pacific cold front will move from west to east across New Mexico on Tuesday. Cooler temps will follow the frontal passage Tuesday night into Friday. 

(Tuesday Afternoon Into Tuesday Night).


Return flow (low-level southerly and southeasterly upslope flow) from the Gulf of Mexico will help set the stage for severe thunderstorms to develop along and east of the dryline and approaching Pacific cold front Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night from central Texas northward into southern Nebraska.


Today.


Monday.


Tuesday.


Wednesday.


NWS NDFD Forecast Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.
(Monday Into Wednesday Morning).


NWS NDFD Forecast Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.
(Monday Into Wednesday Morning).


NWS NDFD Peak Wind Gust Forecast.


Here in Southeastern New Mexico near-record to record heat is forecast Monday afternoon as our high temperatures approach 90º. Windy and dusty conditions are forecast for Tuesday into Tuesday evening as the front approaches and then pushes east of the region. Southwesterly to westerly winds may gust up to 50 mph or higher across the plains and valleys. Then shift around to the northwest and remain strong and gusts Tuesday night. Our temperatures will cool down to slightly below normal Wednesday into Friday with a warming trend by next weekend.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Next Potential Storm To Impact The Region Next Week.

First Look At Next Weeks Storm.


Valid At Noon MDT Wednesday, Oct 27, 2021.

ECMWF 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At Noon MDT Wednesday, Oct 27, 2021.

GEM 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At Noon MDT Wednesday, Oct 27, 2021.

Our local weather of late has been rather tranquil of late. Our temperatures have been running a little above average to date but other than that nothing significant has occurred recently. Parts of the local area did receive their first freeze of the season. Freezing temperatures have occurred across the Capitan and Sacramento mountains generally above 6,000'. The area has yet to experience its first widespread killing freeze at the lower elevations of the Southeastern Plains

 Listed below are the locations and their reported freezing temperatures and dates of occurrence.


A very active jet stream will continue to send very strong mid-upper level storms into the Gulf of Alaska today into the first of next week and beyond. This morning's run of the computer forecast models hints that our next storm to affect the region may occur the first and middle of next week.

The GFS model is the strongest with its forecasts and drops a closed low into southern New Mexico by next Wednesday (the 27th). The European and Canadian models don't agree with this and have a much weaker storm swinging by the state and exiting much faster. We are a week out from any such impacts so it's difficult to pin anything down this far out. But at least there is a chance of a storm in the cards and hoping it brings some much-needed rain and snow to the state.

(Some 5º-15º Above Normal For The Date).








The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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