Current National Weather Service Watches/Warnings In Effect.

My Current Weather

Ruidoso Live Web Cam

Cloudcroft Live Web Cam

Friday, December 22, 2023

Two Winter Storms Headed Our Way - T-Storms/A Few Possibly Severe - Widespread Lowland Rains - Heavy Mtn Snows!

November 11, 2023.
Hondo Valley - East Of Ruidoso, NM.


At 2:00 PM MST Friday, Dec 22, 2023.

GOES EAST Water Vapor Satellite Image.

At 2:00 PM MST Friday, Dec 22, 2023.


At 2:00 PM MST Friday, Dec 22, 2023.




Valid At 5 AM MST Saturday Morning.

Valid At 11 AM MST Saturday Morning.

Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday Evening.

Valid At 5 AM MST Christmas Eve Morning.


Valid At 5 PM MST Today.

Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Eve Morning.

Valid At 5 1M MST Christmas Morning.

ECMWF Storm Total Precipitation Forecast.

Valid Tonight Through 5 PM MST Christmas Day.

ECMWF Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid Tonight Through 5 PM MST Christmas Day.














Two Winter Storms Coming Our Way.

As of 2 PM MST this Friday afternoon a strong closed mid-upper level low was centered just southwest of San Diego, California. It will move east tonight and into the state tomorrow and Christmas Eve. This storm is forecast by the models to merge or phase with the second storm dropping south out of Utah on S

Christmas Eve morning at sunrise a second winter storm (mid-level short wave trough of low pressure) is forecast to drop south from northeastern Utah and into the Four Corners region by sunset. Then it is forecast to swing eastward across northern New Mexico and southern Colorado Christmas Eve, and then into the Texas Panhandle Christmas Day. 

A Pacific cold front will enter the state at sunrise tomorrow morning. Then move eastward the state and into West Texas by around sunset tomorrow.

A modified (not so cold) arctic cold front will enter northern New Mexico by around sunrise Christmas Eve morning and then move southward through the state through the day.

For a week now the forecast models have been struggling with the track, speed, and strength of these winter storms headed our way via the closed mid-upper level to our west. 

I'm not all that convinced that we won't have a few surprises this Christmas holiday weekend as the storm finally ejects eastward and into the state. El Nino winter storms are notorious for making liars out of forecast models and all of those who use them to try and forecast our weather with. Including me. Don't be surprised if there are not changes in our local forecasts across the state. 

The snow level will start out high late this afternoon around 9,000', dropping down to 7,000 to 8,000' tonight, and around 6,000' by Saturday morning.  

Widespread lowland soaking rains and heavy higher mountains snows will spread into eastward into western New Mexico tonight, then across the rest of the state on Saturday. Heavy snowfall is forecast for the western and northern mountains above 7,000 to 8,000'. 

Areas of blowing snow may add to travel problems in those locations which see the heavier snowfall tonight into Saturday evening.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for parts of these areas through early Christmas Eve morning. Storm total snowfall amounts above 8,000' are forecast to be in the 6" to 12" range. Up to 3" is forecast for lower elevations in the Advisory areas.

Sacramento & Capitan Mountains:

Snow levels this afternoon near 10,000' lowering down  to 9,000' tonight. Snow levels on Saturday 7,500' to 8,000'. 

Current forecasts call for possibly an inch of snow above 8,000' tonight into Saturday in the Sacramento and Capitan mountains. This could change depending on how the two winter storms track across the state Saturday into Saturday night. 

Tonight: Rain mixing with and then changing over to snow above 8,000' . A thunderstorm with thundersnow is possible. South winds tonight at around 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 40. Higher elevations above 9,000' south winds sustained at 25 to 45 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph. 

Saturday: A mix of rain and snow with a few thunderstorms possible. Saturday southwest winds sustained at around 25 gusting to near 40 mph. Gusts to 50 to 60 mph above 9,000'. 

New snowfall of 6" to 12" possible tonight through Saturday. Falling temps Saturday afternoon. West winds will gust up to around 30 to 50 mph Saturday night. Christmas day sunny but blustery with northwest winds 15 to 25 mph.

High temps on Saturday ranging from near the mid 40's to upper 40's in the Ruidoso, Capitan Mayhill, Sacramento/Weed, Timberon, Mountain Park/High Rolls areas. 

Highs on Saturday in the Sunspot, Cloudcroft, Silver Lake, Ski Apache areas will be in the mid 30's.

Christmas Eve: Sunny with highs ranging from the low 30's to the mid 40's.

Christmas Day: Sunny with highs ranging from the mid 20's to the upper 30's. 

Southeastern Plains:

Tonight: Scattered rain showers developing and increasing in aerial coverage by sunrise Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms possible. A few of these could produce small hail.

Saturday: Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may form into clusters and some of these may become marginally severe and produce large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Clearing by Saturday night.

Christmas Eve: Sunny and cooler with highs in the 50's.

Christmas Day: Sunny and colder with highs in the mid to upper 40's.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Friday, December 15, 2023

Winter Storm Summary - Friday, December 15th, 2023.

October 26, 2023.
Sunspot Hwy South Of Cloudcroft.

Blog Updated Sunday, Dec 17, 2023 at 8:16 AM MST.


At 8:51 AM MST, Friday, December 15, 2023. 



The satellite snow RGB this morning shows snow cover in red with low clouds & fog in white. Much of the high terrain and parts of northeast NM picked up some fantastic snowfall. Heaviest totals were 15 to 20" in the Sangre de Cristo Mts! #nmwx

Reported Precipitation & Snowfall Totals.

Dense fog in the Pecos Valley can been seen in the satellite image above this Friday morning. With fresh snow visible across northern New Mexico.

While impressive snowfall totals (One to two feet in some locations) were noted across the northern one third of New Mexico from this latest storm, the Sacramento and Capitan mountains flat out right got robbed as far as snow is concerned. I saw a few snow flurries on the Ski Apache webcam yesterday afternoon and that's about it. The center of the storm tracked eastward across Albuquerque, and then northeastward into the Texas Panhandle yesterday afternoon and evening. Simply just too far north and too warm to produce snowfall of any meaningful amounts in the Sac's. 

Rainfall totals across southeastern New Mexico fell short of model forecasts in some areas and were close to forecast in others. Except in the Hobbs area, and across the South Plains of Texas where the heaviest amounts fell.

(As Of Friday, Dec 15, 2023).


(As Of 10 AM MST, Friday, Dec 15, 2023).


(As Of 10 AM MST, Friday, Dec 15, 2023).


Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
935 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2023

...SNOWFALL REPORTS FOR DECEMBER 13-15 2023...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date

...New Mexico...

...Bernalillo County...
Ponderosa 3 ENE              11.8 in   0700 AM 12/15
Sedillo 1 S                  7.7 in    0700 AM 12/15
Miera 2 SW                   7.5 in    0600 AM 12/15
Sedillo 1 WSW                7.5 in    0700 AM 12/15
Sedillo 1 ESE                7.3 in    0700 AM 12/15
Chilili 2 N                  7.1 in    0700 AM 12/15
Sandia Park 3.7 ESE          6.5 in    0700 AM 12/15
Miera 2 ESE                  6.5 in    0800 AM 12/15
Sandia Park 0.5 S            6.3 in    0900 AM 12/15
Tijeras 0.4 SE               5.7 in    0700 AM 12/15
Ponderosa 2 W                5.6 in    0700 AM 12/15
Cedar Crest 3.0 NNE          5.5 in    0700 AM 12/15
Ponderosa 1 WSW              5.2 in    0700 AM 12/15
Sandia Park 0.5 S            5.1 in    0900 AM 12/14
Ponderosa 2 WNW              5.0 in    0700 AM 12/15
Sandia Park 4.9 ESE          4.3 in    0700 AM 12/14
Cedro 2.4 S                  2.9 in    0700 AM 12/14
1 NNE Sandia Heights         1.0 in    0557 AM 12/15

...Cibola County...
9 WSW Bluewater Lake State P 2.0 in    0751 AM 12/14
Ramah 3.1 ENE                1.0 in    0700 AM 12/15
El Morro 2 WSW               1.0 in    0900 AM 12/15

...Colfax County...
3 E Angel Fire               18.0 in   1011 PM 12/14
Angel Fire 4.1 NNW           15.3 in   0915 AM 12/14
5 S Cimarron Canyon State Pa 11.0 in   1019 PM 12/14
2 SE Enchanted Forest XC Ski 8.0 in    1027 PM 12/14
Raton 1.0 N                  8.0 in    0700 AM 12/15
Maxwell                      8.0 in    0946 AM 12/14
Eagle Nest                   5.5 in    0400 PM 12/13

...Harding County...
2 SSE Roy                    6.0 in    0732 AM 12/15
4 W Mills                    3.5 in    0230 PM 12/14
2 ESE Roy                    3.0 in    0734 AM 12/15
Yates 7 SE                   2.2 in    0645 AM 12/15
5 ESE Roy                    1.0 in    0736 AM 12/15

...Los Alamos County...
6 W Los Alamos               15.0 in   1012 PM 12/14
1 NNE Pajarito Mountain Ski  10.0 in   1100 AM 12/14
Los Alamos 1.4 E             6.0 in    0700 AM 12/15
Los Alamos 2.5 WSW           4.7 in    0800 AM 12/15
Los Alamos 6.1 SE            2.7 in    0800 AM 12/14

...McKinley County...
Prewitt 5.5 NNE              3.1 in    0800 AM 12/15

...Mora County...
Chacon 2.1 ENE               21.2 in   0700 AM 12/15
1 NW Ocate                   12.0 in   0722 AM 12/15
13 WSW Mills                 6.0 in    0727 AM 12/15
11 ENE Wagon Mound           6.0 in    0729 AM 12/15

...Rio Arriba County...
Truchas 1.4 ESE              6.1 in    0700 AM 12/15
9 E Cuba                     6.0 in    1040 PM 12/14
11 NNW Canon Plaza           6.0 in    1210 PM 12/14
8 SSW San Miguel             5.0 in    1207 PM 12/14
Ojo Sarco                    5.0 in    0222 PM 12/14
7 ESE Cuba                   4.0 in    0735 AM 12/14
12 SSE Coyote                4.0 in    0739 AM 12/14
5 NW Chama                   3.0 in    0749 AM 12/14
2 N Chama                    3.0 in    0205 PM 12/14
Gallina 2.0 W                2.8 in    0700 AM 12/14
Dulce                        2.5 in    0310 PM 12/14
7 E Canjilon                 2.0 in    0740 AM 12/14
Alcalde 19 N                 1.5 in    0700 AM 12/14
2 NE Abiquiu                 1.5 in    0218 PM 12/14
Espanola 5.4 WNW             1.4 in    0700 AM 12/15

...San Juan County...
5 SSW Toadlena               3.0 in    0900 PM 12/13
Bloomfield 1.7 N             3.0 in    0400 AM 12/14
Aztec 5.2 E                  1.3 in    0600 AM 12/15
Aztec 9.1 NE                 1.1 in    0700 AM 12/15

...San Miguel County...
8 SW Rociada                 21.0 in   1007 PM 12/14
2 E Rociada                  20.0 in   0200 PM 12/14
Rowe 2.7 NNW                 13.0 in   0700 AM 12/15
1 WSW Las Vegas              8.0 in    0226 PM 12/14
Las Vegas                    6.9 in    0700 AM 12/15
San Pablo 2 E                6.2 in    0700 AM 12/15
1 NW Romeroville             5.0 in    0228 PM 12/14

...Sandoval County...
Cuba 2.1 NNW                 3.9 in    0700 AM 12/15
Placitas 3.8 ENE             2.7 in    0700 AM 12/15
Torreon Navajo Mission       1.5 in    0830 PM 12/14
Jemez Springs 2.8 SSW        1.3 in    0800 AM 12/15

...Santa Fe County...
7 E Chupadero                17.0 in   1013 PM 12/14
2 SSE Santa Fe Ski Area      13.0 in   1011 PM 12/14
Glorieta 2.4 E               12.6 in   0700 AM 12/15
3 SSE Hyde Memorial State Pa 7.0 in    0732 AM 12/14
Santa Fe 5.5 SSE             5.7 in    0700 AM 12/15
Los Cerrillos 3 NNE          4.9 in    0700 AM 12/15
3 E Sedillo                  3.8 in    0143 AM 12/14
Edgewood 2.7 W               3.5 in    0700 AM 12/15
Santa Fe 6.2 SSE             3.5 in    0800 AM 12/14
Santa Fe 3.6 ENE             3.2 in    0841 AM 12/14
Santa Fe 2.3 SE              3.0 in    0800 AM 12/15
2 N Santa Fe                 2.7 in    0800 AM 12/15
Santa Fe 10.2 S              2.5 in    0700 AM 12/15
Santa Fe 10.7 S              2.3 in    0900 AM 12/15
Santa Fe 3.6 WNW             2.1 in    0730 AM 12/15
Lamy 5 NW                    1.8 in    0700 AM 12/15
Santa Fe 7 SW                1.6 in    0700 AM 12/15
2 N Santa Fe                 1.6 in    0700 AM 12/14
Santa Fe 2.3 NE              1.5 in    0700 AM 12/15
Santa Fe 2.3 SE              1.4 in    0800 AM 12/14
Santa Fe Seton               1.3 in    0630 AM 12/15
Santa Fe 1.3 WSW             1.3 in    0700 AM 12/14
Santa Fe 0.7 ESE             1.2 in    0700 AM 12/15
Santa Fe 10.6 SSE            1.2 in    0700 AM 12/14
Santa Fe 4.3 SW              1.1 in    0730 AM 12/15
Santa Fe 8.5 S               1.0 in    0900 AM 12/14

...Taos County...
3 NW Tres Ritos              20.0 in   1012 PM 12/14
Shady Brook 5 E              12.2 in   0700 AM 12/15
4 NNW Tres Ritos             12.0 in   1004 PM 12/14
Tres Ritos                   12.0 in   1005 PM 12/14
1 SSW Taos Ski Valley        9.0 in    1230 PM 12/14
9 NE Enchanted Forest XC Ski 8.0 in    1028 PM 12/14
11 ENE Amalia                8.0 in    1029 PM 12/14
Chamisal 4.7 SSE             5.7 in    0715 AM 12/14
Taos 19.1 W                  5.6 in    0900 AM 12/14
Penasco                      5.0 in    0222 PM 12/14
Arroyo Seco 1.4 E            4.9 in    0800 AM 12/15
Taos 1.6 SE                  4.0 in    0900 AM 12/15
Arroyo Seco 1.4 E            3.3 in    0800 AM 12/14
5 SSE Llano Largo            3.0 in    0916 PM 12/13
8 SW Red River               3.0 in    0725 AM 12/14
Taos 1.6 SE                  3.0 in    0900 AM 12/14
Ranchos De Taos 2.4 W        1.5 in    0800 AM 12/14

...Torrance County...
Edgewood 3.2 S               7.0 in    0600 AM 12/15
Edgewood 5.1 SE              5.5 in    0800 AM 12/15
Mountainair 8 NW             4.0 in    0700 AM 12/15
Moriarty 1 NE                3.6 in    0700 AM 12/15
Mountainair 2.2 N            3.2 in    0700 AM 12/14
Moriarty 1.0 SSW             3.0 in    0655 AM 12/14
Estancia 9.4 NW              2.0 in    0700 AM 12/15

...Union County...
Yates 15 NE                  6.0 in    0700 AM 12/14
3 ESE Clayton                3.0 in    0930 PM 12/13
Clayton 1.1 W                2.5 in    0900 AM 12/15
Clayton 12.4 SSW             2.0 in    0700 AM 12/15
Clayton                      2.0 in    0930 PM 12/13
Clayton 32.9 SW              2.0 in    0700 AM 12/14
Clayton 14.6 SSW             1.8 in    0700 AM 12/15
&&

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Sunday, December 10, 2023

Brrrr This Morning - Decent Winter Storm Shaping Up Midweek?


November 30, 2023.
Just South Of Whites City, NM.
A Dissipating Snow Shower Over The East Slopes 
Of The Guadalupe Mountains Left This Rainbow Behind.

Brrrr - It Was Cold This Morning.





One of the coldest mornings of the season occurred this morning. So far the lowest overnight low temperature that I can find is the -16F recorded at the Hidden Valley automated weather station (8,470') in the Valles Caldera, west of Los Alamos. 

Other locally reported low temperatures include the following:

Sacramento Personal Weather Station (PWS) - Pinehurst 4F.
Bell Canyon PWS NW Of Mayhill 6F.
Ruidoso PWS - White Mountain Meadows 7F.
Pierce Canyon PWS 9F.
Carrizozo NMCC Station 9F.
Timberon PWS 9F.

Mescal Raws Near Mescalero 10F.
Nogal PWS 11F. 
Weed PWS 11F.
Walker Canyon PWS 13F.
Ruidoso PWS 13F.
Alto PWS 14F.

Hagerman NMCC 15F.
Dexter NMCC 16F.
Tatum PWS 17F. 
Dunken Raws 18F.
Cottonwood PWS - NW Of Artesia 18F. 
Artesia ASC NMCC 19F.
Carlsbad Airport ASOS 19F.
Roswell Airport ASOS 19F.

Our Home In NW Carlsbad 21F. 

Midweek Winter Storm Could Be A Strong One!


Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.

GFS 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.


Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

European (ECMWF) Forecast Storm Total Precipitation Totals.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

Canadian (GEM) Forecast Storm Total Precipitation Totals.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

National Blend Of Models (NBM) Forecast Storm Total Precipitation Amounts.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Forecast Storm Total Precipitation Amounts.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.


Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

European (ECMWF) Forecast Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

Canadian (GEM) Forecast Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.


National Blend Of Models (NBM) Forecast Storm Total Precipitation Amounts.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

How Much Rain - How Much Snow - How Cold?

It appears that a fairly strong winter storm will impact New Mexico and nearby areas Tuesday night into Friday. The computer forecast models are still arguing over the details as far as the storm track, total precipitation, total snowfall, and just how cold the storm will be or not. 

Unless something changes in the model forecasts much of the state will get from this storm, some of really wet. As of this Sunday morning the most widespread and the heaviest rainfall and snowfall will occur from the central mountain chain eastward into Texas. Especially over the northern, central, and south-central mountains (the Sac's) eastward into West Texas.

We are three to four days away from the seeing the first impacts from this winter storm so don't get too caught in the details of the forecast maps above. How all of this plays out will in part be determined just exactly where and how fast the mid-upper level closed/cutoff low aloft tracks over the state next week.

This morning's runs by the models (GFS, GEM, ECMWF) are in fairly close agreement of the track and speed of the closed low through Wednesday night. Then differ somewhat Thursday into Friday. 

As always is the case with these types of winter storms that take the southern route across the state/area, just how far south it tracks will be important. Basically the further the south the storm goes the better the chances for snow further south into the eastern and southeastern plains, as well as the Capitan, Sacramento, and Guadalupe mountains. 

Low level easterly upslope flow will increase and advect lost of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Texas into the area beginning Tuesday night. This will certainly add fuel to the storm. 

Early model forecasts are hinting at moderate to heavy amounts of fairly widespread rainfall and snowfall for beginning parts of the state eastward into West Texas Tuesday night or Wednesday, and continuing into Friday. 1" to 2" rainfall totals look possible across the eastern one half of the state, east of the central and south-central mountain chain, below 6,000'.

Early model forecasts are also hinting that heavy snowfall could be fairly widespread across parts of northern, northeastern, and eastern New Mexico above 6,000'. For now it appears that the southeastern plains will remain too warm (temps in the 40's to near 50) for snowfall.

Snow levels will likely vary between daytime and night. So some locals near the 6,000' to 7,000' level or so may see rain during the daytime, then mixing with, or changing over to snow at night. Snow levels are not set in stone and could be lower or higher depending upon the storm track. 

Early model snowfall total forecasts indicate that locations above 7,000' could end up with heavy snowfall from this storm with some totals possibly in the 6" to 18" range.  

This storm should add to the holiday cheer for those who love snow and winter weather. 

Enough atmospheric instability may help produce a few thunderstorms over parts of the area Wednesday into Thursday. Some of you may even be lucky enough to see some thundersnow. 

Nothing is set in stone yet. Forecasts will change as model adjustments occur, and a clearer picture of what, when, and where the storm will track. So please keep abreast of your areas of interest this upcoming week via my weather web page, your local National Weather Service Office web pages, and or favorite media outlets. This storm has the potential to have significant impacts to travel across parts of New Mexico and nearby areas Wednesday into Friday.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

NWS Midland Forecast

NWS Midland Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Forecast

NWS El Paso Forecast

NWS El Paso Forecast

NWS Lubbock Forecast

NWS Lubbock Forecast

NWS Lubbock Forecast

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall/Snowfall