Two Winter Storms Headed Our Way - T-Storms/A Few Possibly Severe - Widespread Lowland Rains - Heavy Mtn Snows!
November 11, 2023.
Hondo Valley - East Of Ruidoso, NM.
At 2:00 PM MST Friday, Dec 22, 2023.
Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday Evening.
Valid At 5 AM MST Christmas Eve Morning.
Valid Tonight Through 5 PM MST Christmas Day.
ECMWF Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
Two Winter Storms Coming Our Way.
As of 2 PM MST this Friday afternoon a strong closed mid-upper level low was centered just southwest of San Diego, California. It will move east tonight and into the state tomorrow and Christmas Eve. This storm is forecast by the models to merge or phase with the second storm dropping south out of Utah on S
Christmas Eve morning at sunrise a second winter storm (mid-level short wave trough of low pressure) is forecast to drop south from northeastern Utah and into the Four Corners region by sunset. Then it is forecast to swing eastward across northern New Mexico and southern Colorado Christmas Eve, and then into the Texas Panhandle Christmas Day.
A Pacific cold front will enter the state at sunrise tomorrow morning. Then move eastward the state and into West Texas by around sunset tomorrow.
A modified (not so cold) arctic cold front will enter northern New Mexico by around sunrise Christmas Eve morning and then move southward through the state through the day.
For a week now the forecast models have been struggling with the track, speed, and strength of these winter storms headed our way via the closed mid-upper level to our west.
I'm not all that convinced that we won't have a few surprises this Christmas holiday weekend as the storm finally ejects eastward and into the state. El Nino winter storms are notorious for making liars out of forecast models and all of those who use them to try and forecast our weather with. Including me. Don't be surprised if there are not changes in our local forecasts across the state.
The snow level will start out high late this afternoon around 9,000', dropping down to 7,000 to 8,000' tonight, and around 6,000' by Saturday morning.
Widespread lowland soaking rains and heavy higher mountains snows will spread into eastward into western New Mexico tonight, then across the rest of the state on Saturday. Heavy snowfall is forecast for the western and northern mountains above 7,000 to 8,000'.
Areas of blowing snow may add to travel problems in those locations which see the heavier snowfall tonight into Saturday evening.
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for parts of these areas through early Christmas Eve morning. Storm total snowfall amounts above 8,000' are forecast to be in the 6" to 12" range. Up to 3" is forecast for lower elevations in the Advisory areas.
Sacramento & Capitan Mountains:
Snow levels this afternoon near 10,000' lowering down to 9,000' tonight. Snow levels on Saturday 7,500' to 8,000'.
Current forecasts call for possibly an inch of snow above 8,000' tonight into Saturday in the Sacramento and Capitan mountains. This could change depending on how the two winter storms track across the state Saturday into Saturday night.
Tonight: Rain mixing with and then changing over to snow above 8,000' . A thunderstorm with thundersnow is possible. South winds tonight at around 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 40. Higher elevations above 9,000' south winds sustained at 25 to 45 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph.
Saturday: A mix of rain and snow with a few thunderstorms possible. Saturday southwest winds sustained at around 25 gusting to near 40 mph. Gusts to 50 to 60 mph above 9,000'.
New snowfall of 6" to 12" possible tonight through Saturday. Falling temps Saturday afternoon. West winds will gust up to around 30 to 50 mph Saturday night. Christmas day sunny but blustery with northwest winds 15 to 25 mph.
High temps on Saturday ranging from near the mid 40's to upper 40's in the Ruidoso, Capitan Mayhill, Sacramento/Weed, Timberon, Mountain Park/High Rolls areas.
Highs on Saturday in the Sunspot, Cloudcroft, Silver Lake, Ski Apache areas will be in the mid 30's.
Christmas Eve: Sunny with highs ranging from the low 30's to the mid 40's.
Christmas Day: Sunny with highs ranging from the mid 20's to the upper 30's.
Southeastern Plains:
Tonight: Scattered rain showers developing and increasing in aerial coverage by sunrise Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms possible. A few of these could produce small hail.
Saturday: Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may form into clusters and some of these may become marginally severe and produce large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Clearing by Saturday night.
Christmas Eve: Sunny and cooler with highs in the 50's.
Christmas Day: Sunny and colder with highs in the mid to upper 40's.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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