Uptick In T-Storms & Flash Flood Risks Today! - 1941 Wettest Year In NM.
Ragged Base Of A Severe T-Storm.
Junction Of US Hwy 285 & Lake Rd - Lakewood, NM.
More Typical Monsoon-Like Weather.
New Mexico's weather is expected to become more monsoon-like over the coming week. The most favored areas for scattered to numerous rain showers and t-storms today will be across the northeastern plains, and the recent burn scar areas in the northern Sangre de Cristo, Sacramento, and Gila Mountains. This specifically includes the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon, Ruidoso area, and the Trout fire burn scars.
A Flood Watch remains in effect for today for northeastern New Mexico, the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon, and the Ruidoso burn scars. Heavy rainfall over these locations (or any other areas in the state) in a short period of time will cause rapid flash flooding, especially in normally dry arroyos, small streams and creeks, low-lying areas, and the burn scars. Keep your situational awareness of the weather high and be prepared to seek higher ground should a flash flood warning be issued for your specific location. Remember "Turn Around - Don't Drown!"
A few of these t-storms today may become marginally severe in northeastern New Mexico. Although some t-storms could be strong with small hail, gusty outflow winds, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, they could occur just about anywhere in the state. Localized areas of blowing dust may accompany t-storms in southern New Mexico.
Storm total rainfall amounts today into the weekend will generally range from 1" to 2" in the most favored areas for t-storms (mentioned above). A few isolated locations may experience locally higher totals. A warming trend is forecast for next week.
(At Midnight Last Night).
RRFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1042 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025
NMZ214-215-229-171800-
/O.EXT.KABQ.FA.A.0026.250717T1800Z-250718T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Northeast Highlands-
1042 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast New Mexico,
including the following areas, in north central New Mexico, East
Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. In northeast New Mexico, Northeast Highlands.
* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be
flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- A disturbance crossing in rich monsoon flow will produce
numerous showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and
evening. Stronger storms will be capable of producing rain
at rates over 2 inches per hour. The Hermits Peak Calf Canyon
burn scar as well as locations where the ground is already
saturated from recent heavy rainfall, will be at greatest
risk for rapid runoff and flash flooding.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
&& $$Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1042 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025
NMZ226-171800-
/O.CON.KABQ.FA.A.0026.250717T1800Z-250718T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
South Central Mountains-
1042 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New Mexico, including the following
area, South Central Mountains.
* WHEN...Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may
become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding
of creeks and rivers are possible.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Sacramento
Mountains by early afternoon on Thursday. Increased moisture
in the area will allow for rainfall rates to exceed one inch
per hour. The burn scars surrounding Ruidoso will be
especially susceptible to runoff and flash flooding.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
&& $$ 34Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1042 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025
NMZ227-228-230>232-171800-
/O.EXB.KABQ.FA.A.0026.250717T1800Z-250718T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast
Highlands-Union County-Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-
1042 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of northeast New Mexico, including the following
areas, Eastern San Miguel County, Far Northeast Highlands, Harding
County, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass and Union
County.
* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be
flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Thunderstorms will impact northeast New Mexico Thursday
afternoon and evening. Rich moisture and slow storm motions
will result in heavy rainfall rates, potentially exceeding 2
inches per hour. Given wet antecedent conditions due to
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, excessive runoff is
likely.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
&& $$380 FXUS64 KMAF 171030 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 529 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Rain chances continue today, especially in the Davis Mountains (30-60% chance there, 20-40% chances for other locations west of the Pecos). Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. - A warming and drying trend continues into next week. - Rain chances decrease this weekend into next week. The best chances (10-30%) will be in the Davis Mountains. &&.LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Ridging builds overhead by the weekend. As a result of this, temperatures climb 2-5 degrees above normal across much of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico (96 is a normal high this time of year at MAF, and 73 is the normal low). Many locations will near or reach the century mark, especially along the Rio Grande (where some places will approach 105-110 degrees) and in the Trans- Pecos. Meanwhile, rain chances continue to decrease as subsidence increases, with only 10-20% chances showing up in the Davis Mountains and surrounding areas Saturday and Sunday. At this time, Sunday looks to be the hottest day overall. By Monday, ensembles indicate the ridge begins to shift a bit farther to the east. This means temperatures will decrease by a degree or two for everyone except our easternmost counties. By the middle of the week, highs everywhere end up only a degree or two above normal. Rain chances will also increase a bit again in the higher terrain as the ridge shifts eastward (10-30% chances). Nevertheless, after a fairly mild start to July it looks like more typical summer heat will be sticking around, at least for the foreseeable future. Sprang &&
423 FXUS65 KABQ 171140 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 540 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 533 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Numerous showers and storms today and Friday will increase the risk of flash flooding, particularly over recent burn scars and in northeastern New Mexico. - Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning could accompany any storms each day and a few storms may become severe in the northeast Thursday afternoon. - A low to moderate risk of burn scar of flash flooding will persist into the early and middle part of next week despite a downtick in storm coverage. &&.LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 The near-statioanry Baja Low will continue its slow trek northward into the desert southwest on Saturday. A weak shortwave embedded within this Low will help to enhance precipitation Saturday afternoon, with western NM being favored. PWATs will trend down closer to average this weekend as dry air begins to intrude from the west. This will help to lower the threat of off-scar flash flooding, but the moderate to high threat of burn scar flash flooding will continue each day we remain within this pattern. Long-term PWAT time series show a gradual drop in moisture early next week, however both the GEFS and ENS have several members that maintain near to above average moisture over the region. Increasing heights will result in a gradual warming trend early to mid-next week, creating moderate heat risk concerns along the Rio Grande Valley and in eastern NM. &&
082 FXUS64 KEPZ 171044 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 444 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 444 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, area wide for Thursday and Friday, but mainly west this weekend into next week. -Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding, mainly small hail, gusty outflow winds, and areas of blowing dust. - High temperatures near to just below normal west of the Rio Grande Valley, while remaining above normal to the east. &&
This photo depicts a flooded cabin along the Rio Ruidoso in the village of Ruidoso, where 15 cabins were destroyed or damaged.
Significant New Mexico Floods
+September 1941, Widespread River Flooding and Local Flash Flooding
+June 14-17, 1965, Eastern Plains River Flood
+Rain on Snow Event, December 18-19, 1978
+Lincoln County, Remnants of Hurricane Doly, July 26-28, 2008
+Summer of 2006 Record Monsoon Season
Flood Hazards Information
+Flash Flooding
+River Flooding
+Tropical Systems
+Burn Scars/Debris Flows
+Snowmelt
+Debris Jams
+Dry Wash
+Dam Breaks/Levee Failure
| ||||||
Selected List Of Highest Yearly Rainfall Totals.
Whitetail NWS Climate Co-Op Station located southeast of Ruidoso - 62.51" in 1941.
NWS Climate Co-Op Station 7 WNW of Portales - 54.65".
Cloudcroft NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 48.12" in 1941.
Clovis NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 46.91".
St. Vrain NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 46.47".
Floyd NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 45.77".
Broadview NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 45.00".
Elkins NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 44.11".
Portales NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 44.10".
Arabella NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 43.74"
Carlsbad Caverns NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 43.32" in 1941.
Mayhill Ranger Station NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 42.96".
Pine Springs NWS Climate Co-Op Station (Guadalupe Mtns Natl Park) - 42.47" in 1941.
Crossroads NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 41.04" in 1941.
Mountain Park NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 39.92" in 1941.
Elk NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 39.60".
Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 0.4 ESE - 39.55" in 2022.
Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 2.3 S - 39.41" in 2022.
Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 1.8 SW - 38.62" in 2022.
Corona NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 36.61".
Lake McMillian NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 36.19" in 1941.
Lake Avalon NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 36.27" in 1941.
Tatum NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 36.19" in 1941.
Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 4.0 E - 36.12" in 2022.
Artesia NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 35.50" in 1941.
Hobbs NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 35.35" in 1941.
Mescalero NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 35.19".
Lovington NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 35.11".
Ruidoso NWS Climate Co-Op Station (Station opened in Dec 1941) - 34.81" in 1965.
Pearl NWS Climate Co-Op Station (West Of Hobbs) - 34.46"
Carlsbad NWS Climate Co-OP Station - 33.84" in 1941.
Roswell NWS Office (Old Municipal Airport) - 32.90" in 1941.
Hagerman NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 32.66" in 1941.
Loving NWS Climate Co-OP Station - 31.94" in 1941.
Capitan NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 31.54" in 1941.
Hope NWS Climate Co-Op Station 31.13" - in 1986.
Carrizozo NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 30.85" in 1941.
Alamogordo NWS Climate Co-Op Station - 29.37" in 1941.
Albuquerque NWS ThreadEx Station - 15.88" in 1941.
For additional 1941 yearly New Mexico rainfall totals, please see my blog post from July 28, 2018...1941 Wettest Year On Record For New Mexico.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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