Moonsonal Surge Brings Scattered To Numerous T-Storms & Flash Flooding Threats!
Double Rainbow.
NM/TX State Line - Northeast Of Tatum, NM.
Back To Hit & Miss T-Storms In SE NM This Week.
A Flood Watch is in effect for today into this evening for portions of north-central and northeastern New Mexico.
A Flood Watch is in effect for today into late tonight for portions of central New Mexico, including the northern Sacramento Mountains.
A Flood Watch is in effect for today into late tonight for portions fo southwest and south-central New Mexico.
Strong thunderstorms rolled into El Paso yesterday afternoon and dumped 1" to 2" of rain in the southern part of the city, according to radar estimates. Localized flash flooding shut down I-10 for a while and backed up traffic. Not far away, the El Paso International Airport ASOS only recorded .28" of rainfall.
Monsoonal moisture will surge northward from northern Mexico into southwestern New Mexico and then northeastward across the state today into this week. Most locations outside of northwestern and southeastern New Mexico have a good chance of getting wet this week. Temperatures in these areas will be slightly cooler than normal due to the increase in clouds and rainfall.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will dot the landscape of most of the state this week. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible in and close to the burn scars, normally dry arroyos, small creeks and rivers, low-lying areas, and urban areas.
Again, like a broken record that will not stop playing, the Ruidoso area will be under the gun as far as flash flooding is concerned this week. It will not take much rain (as little as .25" to .50" over the burn scars) to produce rapid flash flooding..
Devestating, life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in the Ruidoso area over and near the burn scars should slow-moving thunderstorms produce rainfall totals of 1"to 2" or higher. Which will be possible this week.
Rainfall rates this afternoon into tonight across the above-mentioned areas covered in the Flood Watches are forecast to be as high as 2" per hour from slow moving thunderstorms. Storm total rainfall amounts across most of the state will be in the .50" to 1" range with scattered pockets of 1" to 3" by the end of the week. A few isolated locations may see totals of 3" to 5". We should dry out and warm up by the upcoming weekend.
ECMWF Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Friday, August 1, 2025.
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Friday, August 1, 2025.
National Blend Of Models (NBM) Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Friday, August 1, 2025.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch National Weather Service Albuquerque NM Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX 921 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025 NMZ214-215-229-290200- /O.CON.KABQ.FA.A.0031.250728T1800Z-250729T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Northeast Highlands- 921 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast New Mexico, including the following areas, in north central New Mexico, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. In northeast New Mexico, Northeast Highlands. * WHEN...Until 8 PM MDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Increasing moisture, along with daytime heating, is expected to produce thunderstorms over the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon burn scar this afternoon. Storms will move very slowly and be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall with rates of around 2 inches per hour. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. && $$
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX
921 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025
NMZ226-290200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FA.A.0031.250728T1800Z-250729T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
South Central Mountains-
921 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New Mexico, including the following
area, South Central Mountains.
* WHEN...Until 8 PM MDT this evening.
* IMPACTS...Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.
Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks,
streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Increasing moisture, along with daytime heating, is expected
to produce thunderstorms along the ridge line of the
Sacramento Mountains. Although steering currents should
generally push these storms to the west, moisture feeding in
may allow redevelopment to the southeast, over the burn
scars, with potentially several periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall. Rainfall rates of around 2 inches per hours are
possible.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&& $$Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 516 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025 NMZ404>407-409>411-427-282215- /O.NEW.KEPZ.FA.A.0009.250728T2100Z-250729T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Sierra County Lakes-Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands- Including the cities of Truth Or Consequences, Hachita, Radium Springs, Chaparral, Red Rock, Garfield, Animas, Deming, White Sands National Park, Antelope Wells, White Sands Range Headquarters, Sunland Park, Spaceport, Hatch, Derry, Columbus, Virden, Las Cruces, Lordsburg, Cloverdale, and Vado 516 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest New Mexico, including the following areas, in south central New Mexico, Northern Dona Ana County, Sierra County Lakes, Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley and West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands. In southwest New Mexico, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin and Uplands of the Bootheel. * WHEN...From 3 PM MDT this afternoon through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, streams, arroyos, drainage channels, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Extensive street flooding and even flooding of homes and businesses are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates, and slow storm motion. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ TAB
Flood Watch
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
516 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025
NMZ401-403-408-425-426-282215-
/O.NEW.KEPZ.FA.A.0009.250728T1800Z-250729T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Central Grant County/Silver City
Area-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-
Including the cities of Grant County Airport, Cliff, Faywood,
Mimbres, Kingston, Lake Roberts, Winston, Silver City, Hillsboro,
Fort Bayard, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs, Hurley, and Mule Creek
516 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of southwest New Mexico, including the following
areas, Central Grant County/Silver City Area, Eastern Black Range
Foothills, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southern Gila
Region Highlands/Black Range and Upper Gila River Valley.
* WHEN...From noon MDT today through midnight tonight.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water
crossings may be flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates, and slow storm
motion.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&& $$Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 106 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 - The best chance (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms will be located over western portions of the area, including the much of the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Localized strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall remain the main concerns. - Conditions become dry midweek before chances of rain (10-30%) return west of the Pecos River Friday afternoon into the weekend. - Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal throughout the work week. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the warmest days this week. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 515 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025 - Moderate heat risk will impact the lower elevations of western New Mexico today. Cooler temperatures are forecast Tuesday through Friday. - Monsoon moisture will continue spreading northward into New Mexico through tonight. Then, a monsoon burst pattern will develop Tuesday through Thursday with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible, especially around burn scars, urban areas, and poorly drained areas. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 543 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 534 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025 - Moisture increases through Tuesday with the most widespread thunderstorm activity being Monday and Tuesday. - The flash flooding threat returns Monday and Tuesday, favoring western areas, as a monsoonal plume sets up. - After a cool down earlier in the week, temperatures rebound by next weekend as storm chances diminish. &&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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