Monsoon Surge & Uptick In T-Storms This Week.
Tornado Between Needmore & Meadow, Texas.
Typical Monsoon Pattern This Week.
A very typical monsoonal summer pattern has established itself over New Mexico. An uptick in scattered rain showers and t-storms will begin today and increase next week. By the end of next week, a slow drying trend will commence as we heat up going into the last week of July.
Be glad we don't have the Deep South, Midwest, and southeastern states' weather. Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings cover a huge stretch of real estate where heat index temperatures are forecast in the 105 to 115+ range for multiple days in a row today into early next week.
Flood Watches are in effect on Monday for the Sacramento Mountains (Lincoln and Otero Counties).
Scattered thunderstorms will be most numerous across the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains, and other mountains of the state by midday today into next week. Hit-and-miss t-storms will dot the lower elevations, with the far northwestern corner of the state the least favored area to get wet, as well as across the far eastern plains.
These storms will be slow and erratic-moving, and some of them may persist into the late-night hours. Locally heavy downpours will be possible with any storm that develops, and the risk of flash flooding will be high.
As has been the case last year and this year too, the burn scar areas will be especially prone to sudden, rapid, life-threatening flash flooding. This also applies to other burn scars in the state.
As much as I hate to say this, the Ruidoso, Ruidoso Downs, Alto, Bontion Lake, and Mescalero areas will once again likely face multiple days of flash flooding in and around their burn scars. Areas downstream, such as Glenco, Hondo, Tinnie, and Riverside, will likely see flash flooding along the Rio Ruidoso and Rio Hondo Rivers. The flash flood threat in the above-mentioned areas will continue through the rest of the summer and into the fall whenever any thunderstorm drops heavy rainfall in a short period of time. July, August, and September are our three wettest months of the year in New Mexico.
Localized heavy rainfall from scattered hit-and-miss t-storms may also produce isolated and localized flash flooding at the lower elevations of the state, especially in those areas that have received a lot of rain already, particularly in low-lying areas, small streams/creeks, and normally dry arroyos. Including the cement drainage arroyos in Albuquerque.
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, brief heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty, erratic winds will accompany any thunderstorm that develops. A few wet microbursts will also be possible.
High temperatures around the state will be near to a little above normal today and then cool slightly next week with the increase in cloud and t-storms. By the end of next week, we should dry out somewhat and heat up.
A Very Wet July For A Lot Of Us - Not So For Some.
The Las Vegas CoCoRaHS Station, located 0.5 S, has recorded 7.37" so far this month..
The Tucumari Municipal Airport 5.33".
The Clovis CoCoRaHS Station 1.7 NE 5.13".
The Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 1.8 SW 4.97".
The Tucumcari CoCoRaHS Station 7.9 SE 4.97".
Monument CoCoRaHS 1.2 W 4.52".
A Personal Weather Station (PWS) in Apahcie Springs, S of Las Vegas, NM, 4.33".
The Smokey Bear Raws NW of Ruidoso 4.19".
The Burnt Wel NMCC W of Dexter 4.19"
The Barley Raws (9,192') southwest of Mora 4.06".
Lovington NMCC Golf Course 3.79".
A Personal Weather Station (PWS) in N Hobbs 3.49".
The Queen Raws in the Guadalupe Mtns W of Carlsbad 3.43".
San Augustin Pass Raws E of Las Cruces 3.32".
Rio Rancho Personal Weather Station (PWS) 3.27".
Clayton Municipal Airport ASOS 2.74".
Mescal Raws near Mescalerlo 2.63".
Pinery Raws in the Guadalupe Mtns Natl Park 2.34".
A Personal Weather Station (PWS) in Silver City 2.24".
Artesia CoCoRaHS Station 3.5 NNNE 2.08".
The Carlsbad Airport ASOS 1.52".
I've recorded 1.41" here at our home in NW Carlsbad.
The Roswell Airport ASOS 1.34".
Taos Pueblo Raws 1.12".
The Artesia AWOS 1.07".
Los Alamos Airport AWOS .91".
The El Paso Intl Airport ASOS .63".
Santa Fe Municipal Airport AWOS.48".
The Las Cruces Airport AWOS .30".
The Albuquerque Intl Airport ASOS .30".
Gallup Municipal Airport AWOS .21".
Grants/Milian Municipal Airport .09".
The Farmington Four Corners Regional Airport AWOS .03".
(Click On The Link To Open Up The Current Map.)
6-10 & 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1230 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025
NMZ226-210500-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FA.A.0028.250721T1800Z-250722T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
South Central Mountains-
1230 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New Mexico, including the following
area, South Central Mountains. This includes the Ruidoso area burn
scars.
* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour will move slowly north to northeast across
the area Monday afternoon. Peak rainfall intensity is
expected between 1pm and 4pm.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.
&& $$ GuyerFlood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1056 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 .A weak upper level low will move through Far West Texas and much of New Mexico Monday afternoon into Tuesday. This feature will lead to increased thunderstorm coverage across much of the Sacramento Mountains. High moisture content will lead to efficient rainfall rates, leading to an increased risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding, especially for sensitive areas. NMZ414>416-210600- /O.NEW.KEPZ.FA.A.0007.250721T1800Z-250722T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Including the cities of Pinon, Mayhill, Sunspot, Mescalero, Timberon, Mountain Park, Apache Summit, Sacramento, and Cloudcroft 1056 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of south central New Mexico, including the following areas, East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet, Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet and West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ AB
180 FXUS64 KMAF 201019 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 519 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 518 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today as upper- level ridging dominates over our region. - Low to medium (10-50%) rain/storm chances are forecast west of the Pecos River this afternoon and evening. Best chances will lie over and near the Davis Mountains. - Near normal temperatures and low to high (10-70%) precipitation chances are ahead for many through much of the week. Greatest chances look to stay mainly west of the Pecos River each afternoon, especially near and over the Davis Mountains. &&
457 FXUS65 KABQ 201122 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 522 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 513 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, small hail, and cloud-to-ground lightning will develop each day through next week. The threat for excessive rainfall will focus over low-lying and poorly drained areas, and especially over recent burn scars. - Moderate heat risk will affect the lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains today where highs climb into the upper 90s to near 100F. &&
064 FXUS64 KEPZ 201651 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1051 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Daily thunderstorm chances continue through Wednesday with the highest chances on Monday and Tuesday. - Temperatures will be slightly above normal on Sunday, but will trend closer to normal or just below normal on Monday and Tuesday. - A drying trend looks to be lurking late in the week and into the weekend, and this will be accompanied by warming temperatures again, with low 100s possible in the lowlands. &&
(As Of July 19, 2025).
(As Of July 19, 2025).
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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