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NWS Forecasts - TX & Guadalupe Mtn's

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Showing posts from October, 2018

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Will Old Man Winter Take A Another Swing At Us Wednesday?

Posted by Wendell Malone on October 27, 2018

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Unusually Cold For Mid-October!

Posted by Wendell Malone on October 27, 2018

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Impressive Widespread Heavy Rainfall Overnight.

Posted by Wendell Malone on October 24, 2018

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View My Archived Past Blog Posts

2020 4
- January 2020 4

2019 154
2018 147
2017 171
2016 157
2015 239
2014 201
2013 283
2012 423
2011 349
2010 66

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Scott Sabol's World of Weather

COMPLETE Lake Erie Ice Cover History Since 1972
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MADWEATHER

Chance Of Showers Tonight Into Tomorrow Morning
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Watts Up With That?

An obvious solution to the climate policy crisis
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Space City Weather

A pair of cool days before a wet Wednesday in Houston
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Blog - Perspecta Weather

7:00 AM | *Quite a cold start to the week with low-to-middle teens possible for lows late tonight...weekend low pressure system to monitor*
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Climatism

CHILDREN Of The Ignorant : New Zealand Schools To Terrify Children About The ‘Climate Crisis’
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Top 10 Tornadoes of 2018
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Around ABQ: Progress
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United States Tornadoes

Top U.S. tornado videos of 2019
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stormhighway.com/blog/

September-November 2019 storm chasing roundup
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Sam Dienst - Storm Chasing Blog

Late May 2019 update
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OWL Storm Photography Blog

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My Storm Chase Logs

. May 4th, 2019
. May 22nd, 2018
. Sept 23rd, 2017
. Sept 16th, 2016
. Sept 15th, 2016
. June 8th, 2014 #2
. June 8th, 2014 #1
. June 7th, 2014
. May 23rd, 2014 #2
. May 23rd, 2014 #1
. May 26th, 2013
. May 24th, 2013
. June 15th, 2012
. June 13th, 2012
. May 14th, 2012
. May 7th, 2012
. April 11th, 2012

Local Tornadoes

. Carlsbad FC My Thoughts 6-5-2019
. Hope Tornado 6-4-2019
. Dexter Tornado 3-12-2019
. Malaga Tornado 3-12-2019
. Picacho Tornadoes 5-23-2018
. Hope Tornadoes 9-16-2016
. Ruidoso Landspout 5-26-2015
. Roswell Funnel 5-5-2015
. Carlsbad Landspout 6-29-2013
. Tornadoes In SE NM #2 4-6-2012
. Tornadoes In SE NM #1 4-3-2012
. Roswell Funnel 11-13-2010
. Artesia Landspout 7-15-2010
. Roswell Tornado #2 10-21-2010
. Roswell Tornado #1 10-21-2010
. Artesia Landspout 7-15-2010
. Carlsbad Tornado 5-31-1991
. SE NM Tornado Videos
. Could It Happen Here?

Local Severe T-Storms

. Svr T-Storm 10 S Artesia 6-1-2019
. NM Severe T-Storms 6-3-2018
. Carlsbad's Hail Storm 5-22-2018
. Supercell T-Storm #2 9-23-2017
. Supercell T-Storm #1 9-23-2017
. Artesia Supercell 9-17-2016
. Svr T-Storm Damage 10-21-2015
. Red Hills Lightning 8-9-2015
. Artesia 7-20-2014
. Artesia's Hail Storm 6-9-2014
. Carlsbad Supercell 5-24-2014
. Carlsbad Svr T-Storm 6-20-2013
. Nogal Hail 6-23-2012
. Dora Supercell 6-12-2012
. Artesia Shelf Cloud 5-17-2012
. Artesia Supercell #2 5-13-2012
. Artesia Supercell #1 5-13-2012
. Eddy Co Supercell 5-07-2012
. Supercells In SE NM 5-3-2012

Local Flash Floods

. SE NM Rain (2"-9") 10-6-2019
. Cloudcroft Rain (3"-7") 8-9-19
. Rio Penasco 10-5-2017
. Flash Flooding 9-25-2014
. Flash Flooding 9-23-2014
. Flash Flooding 9-21-2014
. Rio Penasco 9-15/18-2013
. Flash Flooding 9-14-2013
. Flash Flooding 9-13-2013
. Flash Flooding 9-12-18-2013
. Flash Flooding 9-12-2013
. Dark Canyon 8-10-2012
. Ruidoso 7-26-28-2008
. Flash Flooding 8-27-2005

Local Winter Weather

. Cloudcroft & Ruidoso Seasonal Snowfall
. Rcd Cold & Snow Oct 2019.
. 3-Day Storm Dec 26-29 2018
. Svr T-Storms 1-15-2017
. Blizzard 1-1-2016
. Blizzard 12-30-2015
. Blizzard 12-28-2015
. Blizzard 12-27-2015
. White Christmas #2 2011
. White Christmas #1 2011
. Snow B4 Halloween 10-27-2011
. Christmas Snowstorm 1997
. Feb 4,5 1988 Snowstorm
. April 4-9, 1983 Snowstorm
. Heavy Snow Nov 13th-15th, 1961
. Carlsbad Snowfall Records
. Yes It Has Snowed In May Before

Local High/Low Temperatures

. 4th Of July High Temp Records
. Yrs With Low Temps 0 Or Colder
. SE NM Lowest Temps
. Low Temps Jan 11, 1962
. Local High Temp Records
. Local Low Temp Records
. Arctic Cold Review Feb 2011
. Arctic Cold 1-31 to 2-4-2011
. Brutal Cold In NM #2 2-3-2011
. Brutal Cold #1 In NM 2-3-2011
. Coldest Mid-Oct In 125 Years
. 135 Degree Temp Spread In Feb

Local Wild Fires - Duststorms

. Pine Lodge Fire 6-27-2019
. High Winds/Dust Storm 4-10-2019
. Cloudcroft 107 MPH 3-13-2019
. Widespread Haboob 6-05-2013
. Little Bear Fire #3 7-02-2012
. Little Bear Fire #2 6-11-2012
. Little Bear Fire #1 6-10-2012
. Artesia Dust Storm 2-28-2012
. Haboob - Oct 17, 2011
. White Fire #2 4-11-2011
. White Fire #1 4-11-2011

Local Holiday Climatology

. 4th Of July
. Christmas Holidays

New Mexico Extremes

. Eagle Nest Tornado - 8-9-2018
. 1941 - Wettest Year On Record

Global Cooling Not Warming

. Our Sun Behaving Normally Or Not?
. Fake Weather News!
. The Pause Continues.
. What's Really Coming!
. Forecast For Solar Cycle 25.
. Another Little Ice Age Coming?

Most Popular Posts - All Time

Artesia, NM Mothership Supercell Thunderstorm. 9-17-2016.

Blog Updated 9-19-2016 @ 6:31 PM MDT.

Diane & I Chase A Monster Of A Supercell!
Saturday, Sept 17, 2016. Courtesy Of Diane J. Malone.
My Wife (Diane) And I Took Old Yo Crossing Rd. South Out Of Roswell And Finally Got Out In Front Of This Monster Of A Supercell Thunderstorm On St. Hwy 13. She Took This Photo Near Mile Marker 11. Pretty Much Describes Rural Southeastern New Mexico.

3:09 PM MDT: This Beast Had Multiple Wall Clouds That At Times Showed Slow Rotation And At Other Times Was Spinning Like A Top. This Was A Ground Hugger At Times As Well. Initially When This Storm Developed South Of Picacho It Was Showing A Northeastward Movement On Radar. That Didn't Last Long As It Intensified And Started Heading East Then Made A Right Turn (Right Mover) And Took Off To The Southeast. At Times Moving Southeastward At 15-20 MPH Then It Would Accelerating To 40 MPH.

3:47 PM MDT: We Are About 1 Mile West Of Hope In Western Eddy County On US Hwy 82. A Clear Slot Developed As The Rear…

Monster Of A Snowstorm Coming This Christmas Weekend?

New Mexico This Coming Christmas Weekend?
Those of us who live in New Mexico have developed a unique sense of humor when it comes to our weather. I've often said that we live in a place where extremes more often than not are normal. Take for example the rest of this weeks forecast for Carlsbad depicted below.
Latest NWS Forecast For Carlsbad, New Mexico.
My high temperature here at our home yesterday was 74°F. Contrast that to what's coming this weekend...depicted below. Its not unusual at all to have high temps in the 70's or even the 80's ahead of a strong winter storm locally. We saw this with the major snowstorms in December 1987, December 1997, and February 2011, and with other strong winter storms too.
Long Range Model Forecasts On Weekend Storm.
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST European (ECMWF) 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 11AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Ca…

Powerful Winter Storm Is Hammering New Mexico! Worst Is Yet To Come.

Blog Updated At 9:57 PM MST.

Courtesy Of Glen Brazell. Shared On Twitter By Kerry Jones. Nearly 30" The Ground In Ruidoso, NM.

Downtown Ruidoso, New Mexico.

Ruidoso Web Cam Snapshot At 1:54 PM MST This Afternoon.
National Weather Service Watches & Warnings In Effect.
As Of 5 AM MST Friday, December 28, 2018.
Click On This Link To Open Up The Latest Updated Map.
Then Once The Map Opens Up, Click Anywhere On The Map To Be Re-directed To Your Area Of Interest. The NWS Office That Has Forecast And Warning Responsibility For That Location Will Have The Latest Weather Information Posted On Their Web Page.
US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Analysis.
Valid At 11 PM MST Thursday Evening.
As of midnight last night a slow moving and powerful closed upper level low was located over northern Arizona.
US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Today.
This winter storm is forecast to continue sinking slowly southward and by sunset this evening it will be located over central A…

25th Anniversary Of The Carlsbad, NM (May 31, 1991) Tornado Coming Up.

Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT.

Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them.

On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with.
The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening.

The Tornado's path is circled in red on the map above and is a rou…

2011 Skywarn Spotter Training Classes & My Thoughts.

Artesia, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class.
Midland National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper. Midland National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper.

Roswell, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class.
Albuquerque National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter & Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones.
Summary.
Our first Eddy County Skywarn Spotter Training meeting kicked off in Artesia this past Monday night. A total of 16 people attended. This was down a little from the past couple of years. Our second class was held in Carlsbad Tuesday night and there were 17 people in attendance. This was about half as many people that attended last year. I will have to go back and check but there have been some 160 or so people in Eddy County sign up for our Skywarn Spotter Program in the past six…

Tonight's GFS Is As Drunk As This Mornings ECMWF. Historic Snowstorm Next Weekend?

GFS Drinking Same Kool-Aid As ECMWF?
Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.
Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Surface Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015.
Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Accumulated Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.
U.S. GFS 10-Day Forecasts.
Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Clines Corners, New Mexico.
Cannon Air Force Base - Clovis, New Mexico.
Corona, New Mexico.
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport - Ruidoso, New Mexico.
Roswell, New Mexico.
Artesia, New Mexico.
Carlsbad, New Mexico.
Hobbs, New Mexico.
Guadalupe Pass, Texas.
El Paso, Texas.
Blog Updated @ 12:15 AM MST:

Are We Fixing To Go From Drought To Flood In SE NM?

Blog Updated At 1:45 PM MDT Saturday, May 19, 2018.

May 24, 2013. Looking Back To The West Of Hope.
Big Changes Coming Starting Tonight.
GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday, May 21, 2018.
Surface Map Analysis.
Valid At 6 AM MDT This Saturday Morning.
Temperatures At 10 AM This Morning.

Temperatures At 1 PM MDT This Afternoon.

Now that's a stout cold front. Take a look at these temperatures as of 1 PM MDT this Saturday afternoon. As Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas climbs up into the 90's the plains of northeastern Colorado, most of Nebraska, Wyoming, and parts of Montana are in the 40's and 50's!
NWS MesoWest Reported Low Temperatures This Morning.

Surface Map Forecast.

Strong Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight.
A strong cold front is forecast to move southward down the Eastern Plains of New Mexico late tonight into Sunday morning. Low temperatures across the plains east of the Rockies this morning have dipped down behind the cold front which was locate…

Major Winter Storm To Hammer New Mexico & West Texas Thanksgiving Week!

Blog Updated At (;15 AM MST Sunday, Nov 24th, 2019.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Analysis.
At 11 PM MST Saturday Night.
GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.
Valid For 2 PM MST Tuesday.
GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.
Valid For 5 AM MST Thanksgiving Morning.
A Thanksgiving To Remember!
Thanksgiving week this year will be one to remember it appears. As of this Sunday morning a cutoff upper level low remains parked well southwest of San Diego, California. This storm will get kicked to the southeast, weaken, and eventually get absorbed by a strong upper level trough of low pressure diving southward out of the northern Rockies on Tuesday. By Thanksgiving a large, deep, and cold mid-upper level closed low is forecast to be centered near central California. The other models are coming more in line with the GFS and its forecasts but there still remain differences in the timing, strength, and location of the storms to affect our area next week.
Surface Map Forecast.
Valid For 5 AM MST Tuesday Morning.
GFS J…

Powerful Storm To Hammer Area Monday Into Wednesday With Wild Weather.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook. (Day Three - Monday, March 11, 2019).

US GFS Surface Map Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, March 12, 2019.
Valid At 6 AM MDT Wednesday, March 13, 2019.
Valid At Noon MDT Wednesday, March 13, 2019.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday, March 13, 2019.
Incredible rapid and deep surface pressure falls (bombogenesis?) are being forecast by some of the models this Saturday morning. This will be amazing if this verifies. This mornings (12Z) GFS run forecasts a surface pressure reading of 994 millibars or 29.35" of mercury at 6 PM MDT Tuesday. By sunrise Wednesday morning 983 millibars or 29.03" of mercury over southeastern Colorado at 6 AM MDT Wednesday morning. By noon the model drops the pressure of the surface low to 975 millibars or 28.79" of mercury. And at 6 AM MDT Thursday down to 974 millibars or 28. 76" of mercury.
Late winter and early spring storms often exhibit this type of rapid deepening at times when exiting stage right ou…

Warning - Wild & Crazy Weather Ahead!

October 2nd, 2018.
Taken On The Kancamagus Highway In The White Mountains National Forest Of New Hampshire. During our New England Vacation This Year.
Warning - Wild & Crazy Weather Ahead!
Mid-Level Tropospheric Water Vapor Band.
Valid At 3:12 PM MDT This Friday Afternoon.
Surface Map Forecast.
Valid At 6 AM MDT Saturday Mornings.
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook.
Valid Tonight Into 6 AM MDT Saturday Morning.
Former Hurricane Sergio.

ECMWF 500 MB Analysis.
Valid At 6 AM MDT This Friday Morning.
ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT This Coming Sunday Evening.
WPC 7-Day Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Rainfall Forecasts.
Valid Tonight Through Noon MDT Monday.
Flash Flood Watch Tonight Into Saturday.

Top Posts Over The Last Year

Artesia, NM Mothership Supercell Thunderstorm. 9-17-2016.

Monster Of A Snowstorm Coming This Christmas Weekend?

Powerful Winter Storm Is Hammering New Mexico! Worst Is Yet To Come.

25th Anniversary Of The Carlsbad, NM (May 31, 1991) Tornado Coming Up.

2011 Skywarn Spotter Training Classes & My Thoughts.

Tonight's GFS Is As Drunk As This Mornings ECMWF. Historic Snowstorm Next Weekend?

Are We Fixing To Go From Drought To Flood In SE NM?

Major Winter Storm To Hammer New Mexico & West Texas Thanksgiving Week!

Powerful Storm To Hammer Area Monday Into Wednesday With Wild Weather.

Warning - Wild & Crazy Weather Ahead!

Disclaimer

This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely on during severe weather.

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